Anyone know what CET is talking about?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Bellow, CET sez: "...Cory Hamasaki's argument in a nutshell. 'No companies are compliant to date; we're toast!'"

I mean, below.

Uh nooooo. I've reported on several companies that appear to be done. The problem is, I know what kind of extra-ordinary measures they took. I also have direct knowledge of firms that have not taken those measures.

I have a sense of how complex, large systems are. Oh, and don't pull that "lack of virus problems proves Y2K is overstated" stuff, I helped Lance Hoffman with his book, "Rogue Programs" and considered a career in Virus Engineering for a while. I did some computer security work for a couple years, testified at a European computer security conference as a U.S. National Expert. (It wasn't that big a deal, really, but it was the kind of experience that most people would banner on their resume.)

Y2K is a problem; get used to the idea, CET, get yourself prepared. You don't have to fear it, respect the risk, deal with it. You can't scare it away. It wants you.

cory

-- cory (kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net), June 06, 1999

Answers

Cory, I don't think you'll have to wait long for CET to *try* to tell you what he is talking about. He's kind of tied up with Milne right now though. ;-)

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 07, 1999.

LOL

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), June 07, 1999.

I can only hope there is a doctor in the house...I'm not too sure any of the rest of us will be able to figure out which limbs are Poole's and which organs belong to Flint......on second thought, nobody call 911, under ANY circumstances!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 07, 1999.

This pooleCrETin moron's mind is a "riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enema".

- Winston Churchill

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 07, 1999.


Poole and Milne (who's quite "pumped up" tonight). The only philisophical question being, "What is the sound of one hand slapping"?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 07, 1999.


Will Continue,

I think the sound you're wondering about is Duh (or something close to that) as the hand hits the forehead. Don't expect any response like that from Poole (or Flint) until the end of the year though.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 07, 1999.


Cory,

I've reported on several companies that appear to be done.

Then I stand humbly corrected, and I withdraw that remark with apologies.

Frankly, I am a little relieved that you're not exactly standing under the same tree with Milne -- you might get popped by lightning when he finally does.

But do me a favor ... tell HIM about those companies that are done, will you? :)

As for the preparations thingie ... Cory, how does one prepare for a possible recession?

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 07, 1999.


Stephen,

It's simplicity itself, just sell off all your stocks and take all your money out of the bank. But do it now, not in December! ;-)

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 07, 1999.


I heard there were countless numbers of *suicides* during the LAST recession (come on you guys, nod your heads)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 07, 1999.

I gave up. Stephen and I went the distance. We agreed to disagree. But we did allow for a few "short, traded remarks" here and there. So Mr. Poole, I do have a few new questions, that I don't think you've addressed yet. I could be wrong, since I've been pretty busy with other stuff lately. Please point me to your answers, if any...

What did you think of the 60 Minutes segment two weeks ago?

What did you think of the stock market "sell analysis" of bank stocks, due to Y2K?

Not looking to start another war here, just wondering... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.



"Cory, how does one prepare for a possible recession? "

Did you read any posts at all since you've been here?

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), June 07, 1999.


Mr. Wright,

Of course I have. Most of the posts here recommend that I stock food, water and fuel ... which is rather unprecedented advice for a recession.

No offense, but it makes me want to ask, "wuhhh ... haven't you guys ever been through a recession before?" The biggest thing I worry about in a recession is the car payment, the house payment, and things like that. NOT what I'm going to eat.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 07, 1999.


Stephen,

Will Continue is correct, but nobody wants to see that happen to you, especially since you're now asking for preparation advice. So, after you get the stocks sold, and the money out of the bank, you might want to buy some gold coins (Andy can help you there), learn to raise some chickens (Will Continue can help on that one) and maybe put in some long term food storage. Extra money, left over, can be buried in the yard, but you might want to start a new thread with that question. Something like "What's the best way to bury money?" I think that once folks here realize that you are looking for serious preparation tips, they will graciously share a ton of information. After all, that's what this site is all about, Preparation, in case you hadn't noticed. It does my heart good to see you're interested. Oh, and if you trust us, and follow our suggestions to the letter, you won't have to do that slap/duh thing at the end of the year! :-)

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 07, 1999.


pooleCrETin asked ""Cory, how does one prepare for a possible recession?"

simple! more screwdrivers...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 07, 1999.


Tell the nice people what a CET. is. Can you say the word TUBE, or spit out Ohm's law. Let go for it BOY!!!

-- && (&&@&&.&), June 07, 1999.


&, what DOES it mean, anyway? I'm just a common hillbilly (ask Flint, g'ahead, he knows) I'm sure I could "come up with something" but it's way past my bed time (chickens, goats and such)

-- Will continue (Farming@home.com), June 07, 1999.

Sysman,

What did you think of the 60 Minutes segment two weeks ago?

To be honest, I didn't watch it; I had to work at the station that night. But from what I've read of it, I thought it was a bit dated in its info ... although some of it made sense to me.

If there's any one place where I expect big iron problems, it would be in government -- and Washington in particular.

That Washington has gotten ANYTHING done right is a miracle comparable to the one worked by the Savior with the fishes and loaves. :)

What did you think of the stock market "sell analysis" of bank stocks, due to Y2K?

Didn't see that one either, though I've read about it here. At about the same time that story came out, another stock bulletin that I'm aware of was saying the opposite.

We're constantly getting investment advice at the family insurance agency. (These people apparently assume that insurance agents are rich. Heh.) I used to sit and compare them: one guy would say, "Buy China!" Another would say, "Only suckers buy China; buy Indonesia!" And so on.

In a word: I put about as much erm ... stock ... in these reports as I do tea leaves or a good solid guess (which is why I wrote that litte ditty about investment advisors for my site).

Incidentally, deja vu time: the first word I heard of Y2K hysteria was a spec copy of the Remnant Review from Bro. Gary North. I thought it was so hysterical I sent copies to George Smith and Rob Rosenberger, and they considered nominating him for a Hysteria Award.

I never in my wildest dreams imagined that so many people would take that maniac seriously. Never entered registered on my scope; I'm just being honest.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CEt (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 07, 1999.


OOOOhhhh ya, Puddle. I've always thought that honesty was your BEST quality, too. No really. For real. Why the heck did Cory start this thread for anyway?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 07, 1999.

"The biggest thing I worry about in a recession is the car payment, the house payment, and things like that. NOT what I'm going to eat."

That's why we're different my friend. I guess I'm primative. I want food, and drink, first, a place to stay dry, and maybe warm second, and my last freaking worry on this earth will be my car payment! My 87 Honda CRX is doin' just fine, thank you. Jeez, I've got better things to do with my money... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.


Sorry Stephen, I guess we're on at the same time...

"I never in my wildest dreams imagined that so many people would take that maniac seriously."

I couldn't give two, well, you know, about what GN or EY or any other "expert" says about this problem. I can only look at it from my, tunnel vision, point of view. But it's a 31 year tunnel, and I have seen some very strange things being done with DATE fields on a computer.

Figure it out Stephen. We don't give a shit about Gary, or Ed for that matter. We care about the PROBLEM... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.


Sysman,

Probably comes from the way I was raised. I can fish, hunt, forage ... you name it. On the road to my FM transmitter shack, there are scads of wild blackberries, sweet green onions, and all sorts of goodies. No one has even touched the blackberries yet! As soon as they're good and ripe, I'm headed up there with a pail ... :)

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 07, 1999.


"The biggest thing I worry about in a recession is the car payment, the house payment, and things like that. NOT what I'm going to eat."

That sentence reveals so much.

You've obviously never been downsized during a tightening economy, suffered because the industry you made your career in outsourced it's manufacturing overseas or across the border because of the cheap labor, had a spouse that lost a job at the same time you did, etc.

There are many families in this country currently living in their cars, going from town to town searching for opportunities. There are countless families living in shelters or under freeway underpasses or even along the freeways in the brush. And, since I've actually had the opportunity to know some of these people, I can tell you that their current situations can be traced directly to the loss of a job due to a recession.

Have any of these people gone hungry at times wondering where and how they will eat their next meal? Sadly, yes. And the most heartbreaking part is that many, too many, of these people are children.

People go hungry in the US, Mr. Poole. Your ignorance regarding this situation and the effects a recession can have on the working class do not surprise me in the least.

Mike ======================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), June 07, 1999.


"No one has even touched the blackberries yet! As soon as they're good and ripe, I'm headed up there with a pail"

Um, come on Stephen, I always said you're not a bad guy. Where are you again???... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.


I geddit pooleCrETin, you're OK, you will have a daily berry enema when the crunch comes, and you can hunt and fish.

But what about all them Christian mom n' pops that stumbled over your site and may be freezing and starving in Minnesota thanks to listening to your "advice".

Think about it.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 07, 1999.


&&- how about "it takes one polly to push one doomer thru one meme of resistance"?

[note to new forum sysops- I use the anonymiser as well now. It seems the only way to keep my privacy private from you]

-- Super Polly (get@grip.onit), June 07, 1999.


There! You said it. Meme. Prove a meme. Prove an ingrown program can continue to live, once the truth is known. L. Ron made millions on that crap. Were not all idiots. Prove the Meme.

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), June 07, 1999.

Come on Super secretName,

One example of a Meme (other than your y2k contingency hypothosis) that has withstood the glaring light of day.

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), June 07, 1999.


Cory, off topic, but ...

I did some computer security work for a couple years, testified at a European computer security conference as a U.S. National Expert. (It wasn't that big a deal, really, but it was the kind of experience that most people would banner on their resume.)

I did a bunch of anti-virus work, too. In a different life, we might have even met in some circles.

Seems a few years ago, some really great DOS AV products got caught with their pants down when Windoze became the rage ... and I suddenly found myself a hot property because of my knowledge of the OS (both DOS and Windows).

The AV detour was the worst mistake I ever made; by that time, MacAfee, Dr. Solomon's and Symantec had pretty much sown the market up. But FWIW, my resume is filled with the stuff, too. :)

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 07, 1999.


Mr. Taylor,

You've obviously never been downsized during a tightening economy, suffered because the industry you made your career in outsourced it's manufacturing overseas or across the border because of the cheap labor, had a spouse that lost a job at the same time you did, etc.

Back in 1990, Ft. Bragg sent about half the breadwinners over the Persian Gulf, and Fayetteville, NC, went into a near depression that lasted over a year. People were losing jobs right and left -- including me (and several other members of my immediate circle of friends and family).

In fact, I've suffered through several recessions in the poorest county in NC, so methinks you assume too much.

There are many families in this country currently living in their cars ... [snip]

I, too have known (and have ministered to) people like this. But what possible relation this sad story has to do with storing guns, gasoline and canned wheat completely escapes me. That's not how people have historically handled recessions; they've generally handled them by saving their money against the hard times.

Money's a WHOLE lot more flexible, and you can take it with you ...

(Now some Doomlit is going to slip in and say, "but not if'n th' BANKS iz dead!" or something equally profound. [sigh] ... we do dance in circles here sometimes, don't we?)

Mind you, I'm not so sure Y2K will cause a recession. Andy shot himself in the foot (there would have been far less damage if the bullet had hit the head, more's the pity) by posting something from the Princeton Economic Review just a couple of weeks back. This guy -- supposedly a guru of the markets -- doesn't see a depression from Y2K, he sees an INFLATIONARY effect, because businesses will be hiring like mad to fill in where the computers fail.

But the primary effects of Y2K will be ECONOMIC, and not actual disruptions in the supplies of staples. As long as you have money, you'll be able to find what you need.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 07, 1999.


well said mike tailor, Many including myself went through a very hard time when the Corporations played downsizing games in the 80's and early 90's and damaged many peoples lives. There is a new set of rules the survivors had to learn to stay alive. Learn to create cash from many different methods and stay flexable. They dont care about people. we have seen the systematic distruction of the middle class in this country by transnationals that are hell bent on getting power and things their way no matter who gets hurt. Y2k to them is an opportunity to wipe out their competitors. Only the wise who prepare will endure. Being able to eat and having warm safe shelter for my family is right up there next to breathing.That should be priority one for all who are preparing seriously for the comming y2k. There aint going to be any car repo-ing during the y2k if they were smart. Ever see anyone repo someones car in a war zone,I dont think so mr Poole.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware @ conservation . com), June 07, 1999.

"But the primary effects of Y2K will be ECONOMIC, and not actual disruptions in the supplies of staples. As long as you have money, you'll be able to find what you need."

Of course you only have to pay the first $250,000, right?

Who does that leave with money, Mr. it's only economics Poole?

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), June 07, 1999.


pooleCrEtin ministering to anybody is an oxymoron...

god help us all if this is so...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 07, 1999.


Yo, y2k aware mike:

You said in another thread that you had first-hand knowledge of embedded control systems which had failed. I asked you for a make, model number and some details. When are you going to provide these?

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 07, 1999.


Don't you guys ever sleep? I'm guessing no.

I've listed the effort expended by some corps in the WRPs. This might not be proof of compliance and in a backward way, indicates that corporations that didn't expend the effort are in serious trouble.

The best public example is the pair of Montgomery County (Monkey County) and DeeCee as reported in 60 minutes. They are neighbors but Monkey started 4-5 years ago. DeeCee started this year using "Volunteer" IBM contractors, they were paid by a 55 million Federal grant last month. DeeCee wants another 60 million bucks to continue the work.

I know of other "pairs" of companies, unfortunately some of the pairs are recent or current clients so I will not identify either the one.

To CET's question, I have little to add to the other comments except that the Great Depression followed the roaring twenties, what goes up must come down. We're so far up that down is scary.

Oh, and following the Great Depression, there was some kind of war in which millions died, I think it was called, Wha-Wuh, no, that's not it? Oh yes, World War II.

Here's a big difference. In the 1930s, enough of the population was purely rural that they could live off the land or send the kids to stay with Uncle Tim and Aunt Judy at the farm. Today, Uncle Tim sold the farm and stole the money, left Aunt Judy to live as a gold-chain man in Miami and Aunt Judy is sweeping floors for a webpage startup to make ends meet.

I don't agree with certain details of the milne, InfoMagic, Gary North analysis but I see the same risks that they do. CET, you can look at a tiny part of anyone's predictions and find flaws, the problem is, the big picture still looks bad.

Some here may even be convinced because paul milne seems to have used his understanding of human nature, the commodities market, and international finance while InfoMagic based his analysis on banking, chains of dependencies, and large mainframe transaction systems.

Different partial views say the elephant is bigger than we are.

("CrETin" was funny but in the spirit of being good sports and the threats from the moderators, we should probably use it only occasionally.)

More in the next DC Y2K Weather Report out sometime this week, I hope.

cory

-- cory (kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net), June 07, 1999.


How does the saying go? "A recession is when a your co-worker loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job"

Computer crashes happen daily, the problem with Y2K is you still have many systems that will crash on the same day or in the same time frame. Time will tell the results of this event, but to prepare for some economic and supply chain disruptions is only prudent. The extent of your preparations is an individual choice based on fear of the unknown and economic resources. Whether your an individual, company or government, the strong (and prepared) will survive and the weak will perish.

A corporate example would be our good friend, Bill Gates. Microsoft has, since its start, kept one years worth of cash to cover expenses in the bank. Gates wanted to be able to sustain Microsoft for at least one year without one dime in revenue. These cash reserves allowed them to take risks other software companies couldn't. Survival of Microsoft was assured for one year no matter what mistakes they would have made (they have never needed the cash, but it was there) I look at Y2K preps the same way. If life gets crazy due to massive system breakdowns, I have prepared for that possibility. If nothing disruptive happens, I have prepared for the next crisis (war, famine, etc..) I have bought car,home,health and life insurance in the past and still pay the premiums. I am not disrupting my whole lifestyle for Y2K (moving to the sticks, selling all my investments, etc...), but I am preparing. Milne, the Barron, North, Yourdon moved to get out of the lifestyles they were living not just for Y2K. You should not disrupt your entire lifestyle and quit your job for the unknown event Y2K. Good luck and prepare for all lifes events.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.


Can someone give me a link for INFOMAGIC. I keep reading the reference to him (they?), but haven't seen any submissions or links. Could be I've missed them. Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks

-- ariZONEa (see_poole_cover_his@ss.com), June 07, 1999.


Infomagic's theory is discussed in Cory's WRPs #100, 103, 106 at

WRP Archive

See also Peggy Stewarts "Why Infomagic is a Pollyanna" in WRP 106.

-- a (a@a.a), June 07, 1999.


I wonder why anyone would assume hands down there will only be a reccession. Poole, if you have the resources to survive, knowing good and well 90% of the rest of us don't, is it fair to say what you are suggesting is most definitely self serving. Bang Bang, I've got mine is an insult to the rest of us. With the rest of the world so far behind in remediation efforts and close calls with the banking system from collapsing, where do you get off with defending the reccession outcome. It is difficult to give credibility to those who see only one outcome. The govt. can bail us out only so much. It looks like a whole lot of unemployment ahead with few Major companies finishing remediations. That is only one variable of the total picture. Your answers seem to fulfill your own objectives. Go pick your berries!

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 07, 1999.

thanks "a"

-- ariZONEa (poole_lives_for@buse.com), June 07, 1999.

Cory:

Is Infomagic planning on writing any new articles?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 07, 1999.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ