Ed Yourdon: Bye Bye, It's Too Late

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Ed Yourdon is departing the public Y2k debate for his own personal reasons. But here is one last snippet from him:

"Those who want me to continue participating in the public debate sometimes ask me, "But isn't it possible that things will change in the final months of Y2K?" And the optimists ask a roughly similar question: "Yes, I agree that things look bad in small companies, small towns, and small countries -- and maybe even in some of the big companies and big agencies. But don't you agree that with a lot of hard work, we can redouble our efforts, achieve a quantum leap in productivity, and make enough progress in these last few months to avert disaster?" To which my answer is, quite simply, "No." If you believe in the Tooth Fairy, or in the kind of implausible miracles favored by Hollywood script-writers, then perhaps you can sustain your belief that everything will somehow work out in the end. "

"If you're looking at an individual company, or an individual government agency, perhaps you can make a plausible case -- yes, sometimes we get lucky, sometimes the combination of inspiration and perspiration are sufficient to overcome enormous odds. But at the macro level, I don't think it makes sense. We have 30 years of data in the software field that tells what to expect in the "average" case -- i.e., 25% of all projects are cancelled, 15% are delivered behind schedule"

"If a miracle were to occur, it would have occurred two, or three, or four years ago. If President Clinton had addressed a joint session of Congress in 1996 and declared a state of emergency until Y2K had been completely conquered, perhaps we could look forward to a successful outcome at the end of this year."

"It didn't happen then, and it isn't happening now. I'm fairly convinced that it won't happen during the remaining seven months of 1999 -- and even if it did, it's now too late. "

http://www.yourdon.com/articles/sayonaray2k.html

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Of course, this is no more than I have been saying for about two years, now. It started way too late. It is not going to get done.

The metrics will not go out the window just becuase we want them to. The remdiation has failed. It os over. It is kaput. I think Ed is most correct that the positions have become polarized and that few people will change their outlooks except on the basis of some demonstrable and 'tangible' event.

Make no mistake. That 'event' WILL occur. Be it a bank run or a name brand admitting defeat, or some disater, it will occur.

It is only a matter of time. No amount of hard work or effort will substantially change the outcome. It would be nice to think that it would. On an individual basis that work may prove beneficial. But it will not occur in enough instances to make much of any real impact except in the minds of those who think that the remdiation of their own company is extrapolated globally. They can like themselves to the heroic if it suits their naivte. But, Ed says it well when he likens such outlook as dependent upon belief in the tooth fairy.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 29, 1999

Answers

111 working days to go, last call, time gentlemen please!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 29, 1999.

(sound of lower jaw striking floor)

EY has performed a massive public service. Heroes are hard to come by in this day & age. Ed Yourdon is one of the few who chose to step up & contribute to the welfare of the many.

My deepest, sincerest, heart-felt thanks for all your efforts.

Blessings to you & yours Ed Yourdon,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), May 29, 1999.


Paul said

"Make no mistake. That 'event' WILL occur. Be it a bank run [the Euro STILL has serious reconciliation and Clearing problems (Princeton Economic Review), The top UK y2k watchdog has put the major UK Banking players on notice of shutdown due to their inability to get the remediation done...] or a name brand admitting defeat [uh, does ITALY count as a name brand, their head honcho recently virtually throwing in the towel], or some disater [how about Russia, an country already in a social and economic shambles with Poisonfire and Military Armageddon waiting in the wings], it will occur [oh, yes, it will, and in spades due to our so called leaders' GROSS IRRESPONSIBILITY AND DERILICTION OF DUTY (GORE, oh Internet Inventor, where are you???) - the tribunals will remember those who FAILED HUMANITY in such a cowardly way...]

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 29, 1999.


This doesn't come as much of a suprise, Hardliner I believe recommended Ed not to even bother showing up to the senate hearing. Mr. Yourdon has givin it his best shot and I am sure it helped alot. But we are near the time when Contingency plans on a community and personal basis must be carried out. Koskinen might have the right idea but his timeing is terrible. Community awareness during the summer looks to be a failure to me.

Paul when is it your turn to bow out? The time for folks to bug out has gone. If folks can't do a winter in preps trials then they will not know what to expect. There are no more winters left. Not that I am saying that TEOTWAWKI will happen or not but as to bugging out you are the lead spokesman. And you know it is to late for those that have not made plans to do it right. And I would not recommend people to try it and do it wrong.

Best of luck Paul and Ed, you may be right, you may be wrong but you have had the courage to walk your walk and not just rely on talk.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), May 29, 1999.


How appropriate that we mourn the death of the y2k remediation effort on Memorial Day weekend. I feel no glee, like some who only want everyone to know how right they were. Ed's announcement makes me very sad. This Monday when and if you think of all our veterans laying in the dirt and waters of the world ask yourself this:

Did they die in vain? Is the freedom they died for ready to flee away just because of a stupid computer design flaw? Have we let them down? I'll let each person answer that for themselves.

I'm a Viet Nam veteran and I saw a lot of young Americans killed. I'll be thinking of them as I do my part to maintain the freedoms, and the constitution in the dark days that lie ahead. Our government has failed, will we? There is more at stake than our food and water. b

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), May 29, 1999.



Thank you BB. could not say that better!

-- && (&&@&&.&), May 29, 1999.

Our government has failed, will we?

Well said. What will our efforts look like, BB?

Regards,

Will

-- Will Huett (willhuett@usa.net), May 29, 1999.


If it was not for Ed Yourdon and the internet's ability to allow the flow of uncensored information, it would not be possible for almost all of this board's regulars and lurkers to get the information needed to survive the next few years. If the internet did not exist, we would only have "word of mouth" and the media (print & televised) for information regarding Y2K.

And we all know what kind of information comes from the media!

I would like to take this opportunity to thank Ed for having this board available for our little community to come together and exchange information with each other. I also thank all of you for taking the time to post your thoughts and ideas so that all readers would become better informed and prepared. With so little time left, I have the comfort of knowing that what I've gained here will help prepare me and my family for the next few years.

Russell

-- -- (Oh Boy@y2k.com), May 29, 1999.


Will,

The efforts will take the shape of whatever is needed to safeguard freedom, be part of a community, preserve the heritage of our great country, and in my case help the church be the church. b

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), May 29, 1999.


Hey, Paul:

Keep on posting your wisdom. It's sad that Ed Yourdon is done for now, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are. No way! We need to keep informing others to continue preparations.

It is NOT too late! Is is NOT too late! The lull still exists, and anyone on the fence should wake up and start preparations NOW. There are still ample supplies of many goods. Don't think all is lost. Continue with preparations and help others. Remember the Golden Rule.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), May 29, 1999.



For those of us who have made our preparations (you could never actually be done)all that's left to discuss at this point is what BB has so rightly brought up. "Save the masses" isn't the issue at this late date. Save the country is where the focus needs to be (and I don't mean parking lots and Mini-Marts or our government in it's present twisted form) I'm talking about meetings in barns and asking yourself what you are willing to do to keep the Founding Father's dreams alive and practicing.I've prepared for my children, yes. I'm also preparing my children to help rebuild our country. This has always been an issue much bigger than just "beans and rice". What happened to "We the People"? I'm asking myself these questions because I might possibly be one of the few "People" left to participate. Now THERE'S a "town meeting" I WOULD attend, Mr. Koskinen!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), May 30, 1999.

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