A recent conversation with my father got me thinking on this one. I ask him if he had watched the y2k portion on 60 minutes. His reply was "no, there is nothing I can do about it but if I preceive there will be a problem I will head south where it is warm". My question is how many other (100,000's or million's) people might just get the same thought? I have no idea what kind of scenario this would present to planners? I wonder if cpr would have enough beans and rice for everybody?

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999

Answers

I hear this from people, too. Or I hear folks saying, "We'll just go to the country". OK....but where, exactly? How, exactly, do these people figure they are going to do this? Load everything and everybody into their cars and trucks and 'head for the hills'? I have a mental picture of the Joads...

I would think if they are saying they are going to do something along this line, they would be miles ahead if they spent some time planning this out. Better yet, they would be light years ahead if they spent some of the time preparing to stay put for awhile.

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), May 27, 1999.

That's been in the back of my mind. What if??? Well, there wouldn't be enough housing for one thing. These folks would be moving into unfmailiar areas as strangers AND have no jobs. If their banks were in the north then they might have a problem getting their checks accepted, etc.

It just sounds like a huge mistake that many people will try.

-- -. (dot@dash.dit), May 27, 1999.

The key word here is "try". By the time something big enough happens to convince these folks....they'll be fighting the traffic created by National Guardsmen trying to get thier OWN families "out". Does anyone else think "No Traveling" will be one of the first things inforced? Or, will we begin to see huge caravans of RV's rolling across the deserts? Not if the Fed's have anything to say about it!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), May 27, 1999.

Ain't gonna happen except in isolated cases.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 27, 1999.

It's simple. Taz is in the 'Sunshine State'. Perhaps her back forty will be made available to the masses of DGIs pouring out of the Great White North. Y2K refugee camp right in your own back yard. Whatta ya think Taz?

Y2K refugee camps. Has anyone started a thread on this?

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), May 27, 1999.

*******Or, will we begin to see huge caravans of RV's rolling across the deserts? Not if the Fed's have anything to say about it!*****

IMHO.

There will be the point where this caravans are so hughe, they will

overwhelm anyone standing in the way.

Let the sheeple in the Cities starv and there is NO way in hell

anyone will be able to stop them leaving the city.

And I mean anyone.... not Joe survivior with his 10000 rounds of amo

nor our ohh so great man in arms( they will have enugh to do worrying

about theyr'e families).

In fact it is my opinion that Joe survivior will be one of the first

to go. Once the people are leaving the cities and towns they will

start raiding what is left in armories and other locations. Joe

survivior with his gun has NO chance against this. I know, I know

your'e all though people. I heard it all... This will not change

the fact that you have food and there are many more sheeple

then you and all your prepared friends together and they are

starving. They will be desperate.

The moment you start shooting or baricating they KNOW you

have what they want and they WILL be back *prepared* for whatever

minisculus firepower you may have. All you guns and umpteen rounds

of amo are worthless against ONE shoulder launched grenade stolen

from the nearest armory.

Laying low and let the storm roll over are the best advice for

everyone. Let them others fight it out, let them go in the motorhomes

they will provide you with the break that you will need to survive.

If you are not in the place where you want to be for rollover *NOW*

you should be very concerned and ready to go there within a month.

You do not have much time to get ready.

-- Rickjohn (rickjohn1@yahoo.com), May 27, 1999.

I have thought about people doing this and have wondered How far south is south? I live in Louisville Ky and I-65 runs right through our city. How many people will get here on a sunny winter aft., run out of gas and decide to stay!

Yesterday we made the decision to stay in Louisville as long as possible. We haven't defined the moment to leave but decided our skills would be more useful here rather than in our cabin. The thought of mobs of people running out of gas and money here makes me want to reconsider.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), May 27, 1999.

I have been saying all along that people will head south when its cold and dark. A lot of them will end up here in our forest as one is allowed to camp and we have dozens of lakes and springs and rivers and no one will freeze. However, I do hope they organize themselves when they camp out so that they can take advantage of what is here (ie, not piss in the lake that provides their water, don't burn the forest down and dig latrines) Also if you have say, 30 or 40 families living in a camping situation, they can be easier fed, etc. Hopefully the GOVMINT will be providing some food, shelters and water. Seems as if we can feed all the Kosavars and provide tents, showers, latrines, ORDER , then we could do it here. I don't begrudge anyone coming south as long as they come with the attitude they are going to contribute to solving the problems and not making it hard for everyone. IOW, establish some rules and regs and live by them. Even the Joads had to do that! If you want to camp on our land, you would be out in the hot sun. You would do far better under the giant oaks with a lake at your tent opening. Furthermore, we are used to our population doubling in the winter. I just hope all of the regular snow birds know they better bring provisions with them as they may not be awailable here. An iffen y'all think I am going to tell y'all to come on down to my place, y'all is missing a few 'nanners from your bunch!! LOL

Got a tent and a kettle?

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 27, 1999.

Comin' south in January is a bad idea. What are you gonna do in June, July, August and Septemba when you is roastin' in dah heat. Yankees be better off stayin' up nawth. Especially dont come if yah last name is Sherman.

-- Bobby (Lee@confederacy.com), May 27, 1999.

There are many reasons why there will be no flood of refugees.

1) The National guard will block the interstates for all travel except "essential business". You will have to show papers to use the highways. these are limited access roads. It would take a trivial military force to limit access.

2) Even if you were on the interstate, think about it. Any civilian car or RV on the road is going to be loaded to the gills with food, blankets, money, and supplies to last for as long as people can. If I was living on the side of the road and had criminal intent, I would take out a few cars, and steal the contents. If I took out 10 cars, I would have all the supplies I needed for months.

When I try to imagine "the worst case", I see a static situation (as in WWI). It will not be a dynamic situation (as in WWII). Anyone who moves is exposed to danger. Anyone who thinks it will be a dynamic situation has been watching too many movies.

-- Stay put (hanging@home.com), May 27, 1999.

Yes, this is precisely the problem that occured to me (among others) and that is why I decided to leave Florida and prepare a summer home in Indiana,and winterize it for this coming year. I saw how the hordes arrive at Disneyland at Christmas vacation, might they not decide to do this early, say November and December if they finally see a problem approaching? My choice was to be in a cold climate in a hard to reach place. Not too many visitors will arrive here!

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), May 27, 1999.

yall dont wanna come down here. we gots palmetto bugs as big as your hand. put out a pungent lil' odor when ya stomp on'em too. skeeters bigger than that! if'n you wasn't born'n'bred here, you wouldn't like it at all. even us natives thinks it gets a lil' warm down here in the summertime..........real warm.

b

-- b (b@b.b), May 27, 1999.

look at the refugee camps in the Balkans. Those folks were roughly equivalent to DGIs, and totally unprepared...

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 27, 1999.

Big dog, sorry I don't agree with you statement. I believe Taz is more in line with my thinking. If the lights go out there are people (just how many is anybody's guess) that will attempt to drive south. I have to disagree with "stay put" as our society is a dynamic in nature especially when it come the "our" cars. There are daily, millions of autos on the nations hightways. I do not believe the national guard could or would attempt to stop the flow of traffic going south(to many good road). I just have one thing to say to "Bobby", I like it hot and I don't mind the cold.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

Kosovars=DGIs?

That's a stretch.

-- x (x@x.x), May 27, 1999.

NOT a stretch at all. Each of the families said "They won't come to THIS village. After all THIS IS OUR HOME. IT HAS BEEN FOR YEARS!!"

And then the knock at the door, the demand for money, men to the right, women, children, old ones into the truck....

NOT so different from "Y2K is all bunk and hype. Hey, howcome the lights don't want to work today, it's been 3 weeks now and they said it'd be fixed in 3 days. We're going to go see your mother in Daytona....."

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 27, 1999.

Chuck - that's it exactly - the Kosovars were as unprepared as the DGIs are/will be.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 27, 1999.

Well I guess I'll join this frey. Look at the great depression. People picked up and moved to where they "thought" was food, California. However, California farmers were burning it instead of giving it away. The idea that people won't move is as illogical as the idea that Y2K won't be a problem. There's a possibility, but only slim. If there is no electricity, people will move to where it is warmer. If there is no food, people will move to where they think there is some. Water I think is different. If there is no potable water, they will try drinking questionable water and pay an ugly price for it.

Sincerely, Apple

-- Apple (villarta@itsnet.com), May 27, 1999.

I would suggest that anyone thinking of bugging out at the last moment to places unknown should do a reality check now. Pack up your gear and those you plan to take with you...drive as far as your tank of gas will get you, calculate how many food/water supplies you'd have to leave behind in order to take more gas. Put that amount of gas in your tank and drive as far as that will take you. Where are you?

OK, imagine you got to a park, forest, camping area. Pitch that tent and stay for one week -- using just what you brought with you. No cheating, no going to the local food mart for ice, beverages, etc. Just what you've got with you.

Now, go home, and get real and get prepared.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), May 27, 1999.

Hey, don't get me wrong. Personally, I'm all for folks going south. Very south.

South. South. South. South. No, don't go North. South.

;-)

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 27, 1999.

Thats good Sheila but these people who leave at the last minute won't be thinking like that.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), May 27, 1999.

Apple, I think you are right that people will try to move; I just don't think it will work. One, the military will stop what they can stop; Two, congestion will do the rest. Think rush hour -- rush hour ten times over; rush hour without a real plan and then the realization that fifty million other people had the same knee-jerk reaction.

My mom used to tell us about being a kid during the depression. They lived in their car sometimes when they had no money, and when they had money they lived in the 'travel courts' or rented a house. Eight kids and two adults in a convertible. She loved it...it was adventure. A can of sardines, and a pickle was a delicacy.

The one thing I remember most was how often she noted that back then you could drive for hundreds of miles without seeing another car. The roads were still fun then...the breeze in your hair instead of road debris and people cutting you off. They were 'roads' not highways.

We are way beyond any hope of simple migration. Saw a piece on the news yesterday about the upcoming Memorial Day holiday. I think it was 50 million travelers expected on the highways, and all the major highways have significant construction ongoing. I'm stayin' home!

Ten years ago I was on my way home from a camping trip to Colorado on Memorial Day weekend, and watched thousands stream past on the other side of the road headed for those mountains.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), May 27, 1999.

Johnny, yeah, you're right for the most part; but I've heard several on this board talk about doing just that. Hoping to discourage the fool hardy. I don't think we need worry about anyone outside of 100 mile radius getting through the congestion. What I am worried about are the two major cities just 35 miles south of me, plus my own not so small town.

Now while we are talking about folks not knowing what's what...How many think people will head for the cities thinking food will be there?

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), May 27, 1999.

Sheila,

I agree that people should not take the thought of heading south seriuosly but they don't or won't take y2k seriously until somethings happens. They will not prepare or procastrinate up to the last minute. They will not bother to think how far a tank a gas will get them or how much food and water they will need to the trip if they are without heat or electricity. I appreaciate everybody's answer and I'll relay some of them to my father or others thinking of heading south.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

Rickjohn and Stay put have very interesting ideas.

Rickjohn is correct at the majority of his analysis on human nature and desperation. "All you guns and umpteen rounds of amo are worthless against ONE shoulder launched grenade stolen from the nearest armory."

This is true.

To a point.

The Mujahadeen in Afghanistan went up against Soviet tanks and armor with nothing more than handguns at first.

Firepower alone is not the be-all end-all trump card. It takes a man (or woman) with a rifle to hold territory. Kosovo is a case-in-point. Superior firepower inflicts damage, but doesn't accomplish goals without armed ground personnel. Large firepower (including M-60 grenade launchers - the U.S. arsenal doesn't have shoulder-fired RPG's) are easier targets for guerilla warfare, - if you're prepared for it. I'd venture to say that a good many survivalists and other Y2K communities have plans on tap for any such threat. You have to understand that many currently docile and quiet militia and survial groups have expected armed conflict with federal troops in the event of national emergency, gun confiscation or land seizures that they've been preaching about in their publications for decades.

I doubt untrained, starving masses with stolen firepower will pose much of a threat to groups prepared for actual warfare.

However, there are also those of us that are not militia that have contingencies planned for such events. And I'm sure there are considerations regarding the security of Armories and military convoys. Stealing heavy weapons will not be as easy as you suggest, and I doubt the overwhelming masses of hungry sheople have enough self-determination to form groups to be reckoned with.

Most urban folk today are DEPENDANT on government and subsidy for everything from perceived security and order, to welfare and health care programs. I doubt that this generation of spoiled, selfish, dependant subjects have enough wherewithal to unite and fight for a common goal without fighting amoing themselves first out of pure selfishness. Desperation does not breed comraderie.

This is not to say I completely disagree with your assesment. It IS a possibility...especially with leftover guard platoons left to their own devices. I just don't see masses of urban sheople shedding the wool and becoming foxes.

Also to consider is Stay put's post. The Guard WILL close the major arteries and interstates with help from the local, county and state police forces. Containment has always been a priority in cases of mass unrest. Control above everything else is what contigencies the government is preparing for Y2K. THAT is their main concern.

Whatever contingencies you have for yourself and family, anticipating EVERY scenario is wise and prudent, even if you cannot prepare for all of them.

Mental preparedness is more than half the battle to survival.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), May 27, 1999.

I agree,don't think you'll be able to move far enough away to make a difference...say your vehical is fully loaded w/food,gas,clothing,ammo,water, family?,and essencual surviful gear. think of laber-day(new years)or 5'oclock traffic uder normal circumstances,and you plan to go how far(in bumper-bumper traffic)?! wake-up,plan ahead...(NOW!)...and dig in good-buddy. home is:"what you make it"

-- --y2k honestjoe (owalley@webtv.net), May 27, 1999.

Wilferd and Stay Put,

While I intend to stay put as long as there are no riots, at the first sign of trouble, I will be bugging out faster than you could flip a coin. I'll have two minivans full of supplies (probably not enough). My wife will drive and I will be riding shotgun, loaded for bear.

Any other questions?

-- nothere nothere (nothere@nothere.com), May 27, 1999.

I agree,don't think you'll be able to move far enough away to make a difference...say your vehical is fully loaded w/food,gas,clothing,ammo,water, family?,and essencual surviful gear. think of laber-day(new years)or 5'oclock traffic uder normal circumstances,and you plan to go how far(in bumper-bumper traffic)?! wake-up,plan ahead...(NOW!)...and dig in good-buddy. home is:"what you make it"

-- --y2k honestjoe (owalley@webtv.net), May 27, 1999.

My first y2k advice to family and friends was to be where they were planning to stay for a few weeks/months BEFORE the New Year. I have seen no reason in the past year to change that. If things go down hard there won't be much travel, both due to travel restrictions and (mostly) lack of available fuel. Therefore I have never thought the popular conception of 'bugging out' at the last minute had much merit.

Only question now is, HOW LONG before New Year do you need to be there?

-- Lee (lplapin@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

I reckon that it depends on iffen y'all want water front campsites, as to how early you should get here. Yer all welcome to come, just don't be throwing yer garbage around and using the forest as your sandbox. Oh, and bring as much food as you can. Y'all need to reread the Grapes of Wrath as part of your bug out plans. And know that I have my hen house up close to the house where I can keep an eye on it. Same with the garden. Also know that I am a hell of a shot with a rifle, better than most men. But y'all come on down and make yourself comfortable....just make sure yer nice people and willing to work to contribute to solving the problem and not become part of the problem. YOUR FAILURE TO PREPARE TODAY DOES NOT CONSTITUT MY EMERGENCY TOMORROW..........or some such thing.

Bring beans, rice and a big kettle

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 28, 1999.