People Wait Until the Last Day to Prepare, Says $750,000 Disaster Report Link: http://chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/article/0,10... Comment: We keep hearing happy-face reports about Americans who aren't very worried about y2k, and who do not plan to do anything to prepare. Of course they don't plan now to do anything special then. They never do. Then then comes. Then they panic. They buy up everything they can lay their hands on. They strip supermarket shelves like locusts in July.

People believe that emergency relief will save them. That's one reason why they don't plan. But in 2000, every community will call for emergency relief. President Clinton will delare the whole country a disaster zone. He will call Congress to allocate funds from everyone to help everyone. It will be the ultimate welfare project.

The government paid $750,000 for this study. You might as well put it to good use.

This is an AP story from the Chicago TRIBUNE (May 20).

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Shortsighted development policies have increased the nation's vulnerability to natural disasters, a report warned Wednesday.

"We are responsible for the losses in future disasters. It is not God. It is not nature. Because we make the decisions on what to put in harm's way," said Dennis Mileti, a University of Colorado sociologist.

"There is a fundamental flaw in the way our nation and culture have tried to solve the problem of natural disasters. It is based on the fantasy that technology can make us safe," said Mileti, who headed a panel of 132 experts who spent five years studying how the United States copes with disasters.

Disasters over the last 20 years have cost the U.S. more than $500 billion and the toll is rising, due to an increasingly complex society and more people moving to disaster-prone areas, according to the report, "Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States," released by the National Science Foundation.

Attempts to head off disasters made some worse, he said. For example the chain of dams and levees built along the Mississippi River was able to contain most floods. But the system wasn't designed to work together, so in the floods of 1993 some levees trapped water after breaking and made the damage worse, Mileti said. . . .

The report says that while disasters often are predictable, research has shown people "plan only for the immediate future, overestimate their ability to cope when disaster strikes and rely heavily on emergency relief." . . . .

The $750,000 study was financed by the National Science Foundation, Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Forest Service and Environmental Protection Agency.

Link: http://chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/article/0,10...

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-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), May 22, 1999

Answers

Very true zoob. For the past 11 months, I have tried my best to persuade people to begin preps early so that we would not be in the predicament we are now faced with. Almost no one has listened. For my efforts, I have been ridiculed, yelled at, called a wacko and a troll, and received a heavy dose of general contempt.

They will all wait until the last minute, when they are completely, absolutely, positively convinced beyond the shadow of a doubt that a disaster is unfolding. By then it will be much too late.

We can thank people in charge that have attitudes similar to Poole, Hoff, RMS, CPR and Flint for allowing this to happen.

-- a (a@a.a), May 22, 1999.

This response is for A:

I have absolutely no right to suggest that you choose to behave in any other way than you choose right now. However, I AM seeing a pattern here in your consistent blaming of others who have opinions that don't coincide with your own.

Many on this forum have experienced the difficulties you described in alerting others to possible problems with Y2k. You're in NO way unique in this regard. You seem to honor the opinions of Mr. North and Mr. Milne. That's your right. Others don't honor their opinions based on 2 years of reviewing their previous predictions. That is ALSO their right.

It's my opinion that some folks who choose to dismiss Y2k entirely simply don't CARE to hear about it. It doesn't matter whether the news is good, nor does it matter whether the news is bad. Studies have shown that only 5% of the populace obtain their Y2k information from the internet. The other 95% obtain their Y2k information from the mass media (specifically the CRT that consumes their non-working hours each evening.) If a Y2k special comes on 60 minutes, they will change the channel to a sitcom.

You seem to ONLY want to hear one side of Y2k. I, personally, choose to hear ALL sides of Y2k. The city in which I reside is ready. I know this from constant communication with my city officials for over a year. I have "seen" them go from NOT READY to READY. I have also worked for the City of Fort Worth and have "seen" them go from NOT READY to READY. Does this make me a Polly? Does this mean that I should extrapolate my experience to YOUR area? It certainly means NEITHER (in MY mind.)

We can't develop an educated guess on how much to prepare unless we follow progress VERY closely and see ALL sides of the issue. I live within 5 miles of a 7-11 and I'm totally convinced I will NOT be toast. My neighborhood could still suffer from unforeseen problems. I have prepared for THAT. It's simply not a "one-size fits all" situation, A.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

how's your bank doing,Anita?

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), May 22, 1999.

Anita commented:

"The city in which I reside is ready. I know this from constant communication with my city officials for over a year. I have "seen" them go from NOT READY to READY. I have also worked for the City of Fort Worth and have "seen" them go from NOT READY to READY. Does this make me a Polly? Does this mean that I should extrapolate my experience to YOUR area? It certainly means NEITHER (in MY mind.) "

Anita, does this mean that you BELIEVE ALL city, state and federal officials when they say they are ready? Do you believe ALL corporate entities when they say they are ready? Do you BELIEVE everyone when they say they are ready?

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 22, 1999.

This response is for zoobie:

Quite well, thank you. LOL. I leave NO stone unturned when it comes to Y2k, zoobie. My money will remain in the bank. Of course (just between you and me), I've been stashing away 1's and 5's since last July. I would think that one of the problems that may come our way due to Y2k is that everyone has a $20 bill from the ATM, or even monies in higher denominations. Small bills may be hard to come by, and I'm NOT going to pay $20 for $1 worth of goods. I also have an enormous pile of quarters. This collection was NOT by design. I had saved them for a daughter who did her laundry at a laundromat and for my parking requirements at a metered lot. They create too much weight in my small purse, so I'd set them aside. Since then, my daughter moved to a house with a washer/dryer and I completed the job with those metered lots.

I can't emphasize enough the need to RESEARCH, RESEARCH, RESEARCH regarding Y2k. Simply accepting the word of presumed experts just doesn't cut it, IMHO. We need to check out everything that MAY affect us and make personal decisions accordingly. This research should begin right here in our own backyards and once we feel comfortable with THAT area, extend to areas beyond ours. I've promised myself for quite a while now to research this foreign interdependence that folks seem to hold as our downfall. So far, however, I've only completed a survey of Italy. I spent 20 years working for oil companies, including 7 years at a refinery, so I know something about oil reserves and am not worried about that one. You can bet we'll see increased prices, however. Profiteering has abounded in that field in the last 30 years.

I'm sorry I got so off-track.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

Ray:

If they said they were NOT ready, would you believe them? Or do you only believe what you *want* to hear? And if that's true, why listen to anyone? I'm tired of telling people to prepare and being accused of saying the opposite. Apparently any effort to determine what to prepare *for* means you're against preparation.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 22, 1999.

Flint commented:

"If they said they were NOT ready, would you believe them? "

Flint, in one word ... yes. Any government, company or individual that had the GUTS to admit they were not ready deserves a great deal of credit. In a society that has accepted LYING as a national pasttime those that do tell the truth deserve much credit. It won't happen except in RARE cases. We will go down to the wire listening to LIE after LIE.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 22, 1999.

This response is for Ray:

Anita, does this mean that you BELIEVE ALL city, state and federal officials when they say they are ready? Do you believe ALL corporate entities when they say they are ready? Do you BELIEVE everyone when they say they are ready?

Ray

No, Ray, it does NOT mean that I believe all these officials when they say they are ready. I do NOT believe ALL corporate entities when they say they are ready. I do NOT believe everyone when they say they are ready.

My local officials were quite UP-FRONT with me when I initially queried them last year. They were annoyed, but yet quite honest, IMHO. I have maintained contact with them and watched their progress closely. Of course I INSISTED that they keep me informed.

Regarding the City of Fort Worth, I saw with my own eyes how the system evolved from not ready to ready. I was working on some of the same programs of which the Y2k team was working, so was in a position to see the coordination, the implementation, the initial failures, AND the corrections.

I contracted at our local electrical provider a few years ago, and could SEE the progress on Y2k there (again with my own eyes.) I know that our eyes can deceive us, Ray, but when I see things remediated and moved into production, fail initially and then get fixed, I have more reason to believe than others not in this position.

I don't know (personally) any contractors working at the Federal level, so I can't address their readiness. However, I DO know many who have worked on Y2k projects for other companies. We all keep in touch regarding these things. SOME companies are ready and some are in the dumper.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

Anita: Did you read the topic of this thread? The feds spent > mil on a study that said folks will wait till the last minute to prepare. That won't work this time, hon. The crisis will be too all pervasive. That's why us "extremists" are up in arms - cause folks like you refuse to wake from their media induced slumber.

Soon it will not matter one way or the other. There are only 7 months left, and people like you seem quite content to piss away the remaining time available.

-- a (a@a.a), May 22, 1999.

Anita commented:

"I contracted at our local electrical provider a few years ago, and could SEE the progress on Y2k there (again with my own eyes.) I know that our eyes can deceive us, Ray, but when I see things remediated and moved into production, fail initially and then get fixed, I have more reason to believe than others not in this position. "

Anita, could you go into a little detail here. I contacted my electric utility long ago but only received boilerplate info. How can you verify that your utility is ready?

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 22, 1999.

This response is for A:

Anita: Did you read the topic of this thread? The feds spent > mil on a study that said folks will wait till the last minute to prepare.

Yes, A. I DID read the topic of this thread. I STILL purport that folks have a general lack of interest NOT due to anything that Mr. Poole and others have stated, NOR because of anything the MEDIA has portrayed, but simply because they're quite content in watching their daily sitcoms.

That won't work this time, hon.

WHAT won't work?

The crisis will be too all pervasive. That's why us "extremists" are up in arms - cause folks like you refuse to wake from their media induced slumber.

I don't get my information solely from the media, A. Where exactly did I lead you to believe that I was in a slumber on this one? I see you AGAIN pigeonholing those that don't see the problem as one of infrastructure collapse as the "enemy." Soon it will not matter one way or the other. There are only 7 months left, and people like you seem quite content to piss away the remaining time available.

Is that what I'm doing with the remaining time available? Might I be so bold as to ask where you obtained your deductive reasoning skills?

What exactly, A, have you seen remediated with your own eyes? What exactly, A, have you seen NOT remediated with your own eyes? What exactly have you done personally to remediate the Y2k glitch? I can only guess that you've done NOTHING save repeat the philosophies of Messrs Milne and North and attempt to discredit those who HAVE done something, HAVE seen something. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm still new here, and haven't seen enough of your posts to establish an opinion otherwise.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

This response is for Ray:

I cannot verify that my electricity provider will be ready, Ray. I can only verify that the SOFTWARE for my electricity provider will be ready. I am NOT an embedded chip expert and am NOT privy to the progress at that end.

My electricity provider will be testing Y2k in their normal scheduled shutdown in September. I admit that's a bit late, but go with the flow. I don't have these oil lamps, kerosene lamps, camping stove for NOTHING. As I suggested previously, we CANNOT extrapolate from one city to another. Seeing, however, the Y2k awareness at the software end some 2 years back (not to say that's when they started, but to say that's when I contracted with them), I would SUSPECT...does that have the same connotation as ASSUME? that they are ALSO aware of the hardware end.

It's (of course) for this reason that I've accumulated the preparedness items that I have.

I'm really not sure how an Average Joe (outside of the remediation arena) can get information on their local utilities outside of the boilerplate information you state yours provided. Perhaps if you can reveal your utility, I might query the contracting network and see if anyone has any REAL information.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

Anita commented:

" Perhaps if you can reveal your utility, I might query the contracting network and see if anyone has any REAL information. "

Anita, we are serviced by El Paso Electric. What I found interesting is that up until 2 months ago their 10Q and 10K reports were available on the Edgar search then all of a sudden last years reports disappeared. None have been posted for this year. They are doing like kind testing and taking the word of their vendors as gospel. a pretty sad state of affairs.

I do not think there is anyone that can predict the status of our power grid come next year and therefore the availability of electric power.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 22, 1999.

Hmmm.

Anita <---> Cherryl ???

Cherryl <---> Anita ???

Hmmm a lot of similarity Trolls both of them or One or both

hmmmm ConFuSiNg

-- I dunno (hmmmm@hmm.com), May 22, 1999.

This response is for Ray:

El Paso Electric, eh? I would assume that means that I've met a fellow Texan. I'm serviced by (and worked at) T.U.

I will do the best I can to provide you with more than boilerplate information on El Paso Electric, Ray, but I must request your indulgence here. I've already spent much more time today on this board than I'd intended and have an elderly mother in a type-B facility that expects to see me today.

If I can provide ONE immediate comfort, it would be that the Texas system (for some strange reason) is the 3rd grid of the 3-grid system that extends across the nation and into Canada. I've looked at the map of our grid, and the geographical inferences are unclear as to whether they include Oklahoma or not. However, here in Texas we seem to remain somewhat dislodged from the other two grids that serve both the Western states and Eastern states. I find it unfair, myself, but as I indicated in another post, life simply isn't fair.

I might also point out (as a source of comfort) that I have a very dear internet friend who lives in Taos, New Mexico. Yes...that would be the same area as Mr. Yourdon. Their electric company was seen as "down the tubes" until they sent representatives to Texas where they learned that they could simply set their dates back to 1972 until their new system became compliant. I have been told that they honored this thought and are currently running with patched dates.

This "patch" was more important for them, as if you've closely watched the Rick Cowles forum, electrical problems will NOT tend to cluster at the beginning of the year 2000, but cluster during periods of high electricity use. The HIGH usage in Taos is December, where the high use here in North Texas is more the summer period. We may very well have to suffer warm lemonade under a local shade tree this September if T.U. encounters problems while testing.

I've enjoyed this discourse with you, Ray, and I will do my best next week to try and dig into more details for your electricity provider.

Anita

I will query this next week and get back to you on any information I find.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

Thanks Anita, I at one time was serviced by Kit Carson Electric and can honestly claim that they did not need y2k to cut off your electric power. It was part of their normal service. I sincerely hope that kluging will not be a major factor in remediation work for electric utilities.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 22, 1999.

$750,000!?!?

I could have told them that for only, well, lesseehere, OK, I'll tell you that for $7,500, but for that price you don't get a fancy written report.

Here in hurricane central, every single time a storm gets close shelves are bare to the bone, you cannot find bottled water, batteries, candles, etc two days ahead of when it would theoretically hit. This despite constant reminders from the media to stock up well ahead of time. People do not think ahead, fact of life.

We lost our power for 6 hours one night last week, no problemo, Y2K preps you know ;) ,reading by Coleman, flashlight by Baygen.

Get over it, folks aren't gonna listen, take care of #1.

Cheers!

-- Unc D (unkeed@yahoo.com), May 22, 1999.

Anita: I have 16 years experience with software and systems engineering. Did the programmer/analyst/engineer/manager thing and am now a consultant to DoD. We are mostly y2k OK in my area, but mainly because we don't work with a lot of dates. There have been other problems though, that started as a simple y2k fix, but snowballed into situations that probably won't be resolved. I have been sounding alarm bells about problems within the software world for four years, but only realized the significance of y2k last July. As I work with what Capers Jones classifies as the most complex systems on Earth, maybe I'm biased. But I'm convinced that the risks I see are real, and will be exacerbated by other factors that many people are not adding into the equation.

-- a (a@a.a), May 22, 1999.

This response is for A: (although I sure wish you could extend upon at least your first name)

Anita: I have 16 years experience with software and systems engineering. Did the programmer/analyst/engineer/manager thing and am now a consultant to DoD.

Working on the DOD could in itself explain many things. I suspect that it's another "project from Hell", comparable to Cory's experience in D.C. Please, however, don't extrapolate YOUR experience to the entire nation. MANY of us have worked on Y2k projects that were definitely not in the sorry state that you may find yourself. (I KNOW that provides little comfort.)

We are mostly y2k OK in my area, but mainly because we don't work with a lot of dates. There have been other problems though, that started as a simple y2k fix, but snowballed into situations that probably won't be resolved.

I understand. I've seen these also....although not seen situations that won't be resolved. Does the staff on the projects (in general) seem to know what they're doing? I ask this only because Cory Hamasaki posted about the problems with D.C. (not necessarily on THIS forum), yet in another post stated something about wishing that he had programmers that wouldn't pee their pants when asked to perform an IDCAMS REPRO....paraphrasing there.

I have been sounding alarm bells about problems within the software world for four years, but only realized the significance of y2k last July.

You're a LATE entry to the alarm-sounding world. I remember telling my managers that the code wouldn't work in the Year 2000 and them telling me to simply get back to work. What the hell did a snot- nosed kid fresh out of college know about ANYTHING?

As I work with what Capers Jones classifies as the most complex systems on Earth, maybe I'm biased.

I don't want to dispute your confidence in Capers, but he has ALSO modified his position of late. There are MANY complex systems on earth. You may very well be working on one of them.

But I'm convinced that the risks I see are real, and will be exacerbated by other factors that many people are not adding into the equation.

I suspect that ALL the risks we see are real, yet we shouldn't close our minds to the other side of the equation.

I truly thank you, A, for providing a meaningful source of information. I never had any intention of provoking you personally, yet I fear that many on this forum have simply listened and learned from ONE side of the Y2k fence, and ignore the information on the other side. Thanks again.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

I think I'm gonna have to change MY name.......

the other anita

-- anita (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), May 22, 1999.

Ray,

Some ways of searching EDGAR seem to find more than others. The search page that I find most useful is at:

http://www.sec.gov/edaux/formlynx.htm

I just tried it for el paso electric and got many hits, one as recent as this month, as well as many older ones.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), May 23, 1999.

Jerry B., many thanks. Just went over and plugged in the info and up pops the 10Q reports. I had linked to one Edgar Search function that worked for a while.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 23, 1999.