http://www.sun-sentinel.com/money/516airlines.htm

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which runs the nation's air traffic control system, says it expects no problems from the transition to 2000.

The agency, widely criticized for a late start on addressing Y2K, bases its optimistic prediction on preliminary results from a readiness test of its systems conducted at Denver International Airport and nearby air traffic facilities in mid-April. The FAA said it considered this a national test because the systems at Denver are identical to systems used nationwide.

Final test results, and computer fixes, are expected by the end of June -- three months past a government-wide deadline of March 31.

"All our systems are scheduled to be Y2K compliant by June 30," FAA spokeswoman Kathleen Bergen said. "And we're on track for that."

The FAA's optimism is backed up by organizations such as the Washington-based Air Transport Association, which represents 23 of the largest U.S. carriers. They carry 95 percent of passengers and cargo in the country and are working with airports, suppliers and the government to create Y2K contingency plans.

"The Denver test means we can look for the FAA's system to operate normally," said Thomas Browne, director of the association's Aviation Millennium Project. "What we're basically talking about is what kind of minor problems are we going to encounter and how are we going to deal with them."

However, two aviation consultants say the FAA probably won't be fully prepared for 2000.

"The FAA's saying everything's fine, everything's fixed, but everything isn't fixed," said Michael Boyd, co-author of The Y2K Threat to Air Traffic Control -- Airline Shareholders, Airports and Consumers at Risk, a report published on May 7. "What they showed at Denver is that the system at Denver worked for five hours. It doesn't show what will happen nationwide over a period of time. They did not test the complexity of the entire air-traffic-control system."

The FAA has 641 different computer systems, including a communications system that allows controllers and pilots to talk to one another. Ninety percent of the systems have been "fixed" to be Y2K compliant, said Bergen, the spokeswoman.

The most important FAA computer system, called "the host," will be replaced by compliant systems in 22 air traffic control centers in the United States by Sept. 30. The hosts not replaced by June 30 will be fixed as backup systems -- in case the replacement computers aren't installed before 2000, Bergen said. Thus far, 14 hosts have been replaced, including the one in Miami.

The FAA will conduct field tests of its fixes and replacements until the end of the year, but has no plans to do a nationwide test, Bergen said.

   That's what makes Boyd and his fellow Colorado aviation consultant, R. Michael Baiada, nervous. They fear that as the various fixed systems interact, they may not be able to provide accurate data to controllers, for example by showing an airline flying at 30,000 feet when it's actually flying at 3,000 feet.

Given the concern over Y2K computer problems, would you fly in a plane as 2000 arrives? Take our survey on the business page.

Y2K and the airlines

   Probability: 99.9 percent
   Scenario: Passengers feel that with so much Y2K hype, it’s better to limit airline travel in the first month of 2000. Passenger traffic is down by 15 percent in the first few days, gradually returning to normal by the end of January.
   Cost: At least $400 million in lost revenues.

   Probability: 70 percent Scenario: Y2K problems will manifest themselves in a variety of ways, including equipment failing to work or providing inaccurate data. The FAA responds by reducing the number of allowed flights in January, which shakes consumer confidence.
   Cost: $2.1 billion

  Probability: less than 25 percent Scenario: Controllers revert to a backup component of the air traffice control system and until the main component is restored, FAA reduces the number of allowed flights in January and February. Nervous consumers take fewer flights.
   Cost: At least $5.2 billion

   Probability: 5 percent or less Scenario: Software or equipment provides inaccurate or unreliable data to controllers, resulting in an increase in operational errors and near misses. Until the problem is corrected, FAA reduces the number of allowed flights in January and February. Jittery consumers take fewer flights.
   Cost: $3.8 billion

   Probability: less than 2 percent Scenario: FAA responds by sharply limiting the number of allowed flights in January and February while it tries to correct the problem. Frightened consumers avoid flying.
   Cost: Almost $8 billion

   SOURCE: The Y2K Threat to Air Traffic Control — Airline shareholders, Airports and Consumers at Risk, by The Boyd Group and RMB Associates, Evergreen, Colo. Data is based on annual revenues and cost data for the nine largest U.S. passenger carriers.

Annual Worldwide Air Traffic

1.3 billion passengers
26 million metric tons of cargo
Carried by 262 airlines that are members of the Montreal-based International Air Transport Association
Generating $273 billion in revenue.
  Source: International Air Transport Association

-- Online2Much (ready_for_y2k@mindspring.com), May 16, 1999

Answers

#What about non-compliant airports outside the USA?

#What about jet fuel supplies everywhere in the world?

#What about power outages everywhere in the world?

#What about pilots and labor unions everywhere in the world vis-a-vis lack of insurance coverage for planes, crews and passengers?

Naive analysis just begs for naive questions.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), May 16, 1999.

Who's worried about Y2K?

Jet set makes plans to be in the sky as http://www.sun-sentinel.com/money/516airlines.htm

Forget Y2K. The jet-set crowd, and plenty of other people, will party at the end of 1999. With thousands making travel plans to celebrate the close of the millennium, it's already passe to fret about computer problems that the year 2000 may generate with passenger air traffic.

American Airlines' bookings show its airplanes will fly almost 7 percentage points fuller on Jan. 1, 2000 than on New Year's Day this year, spokesman John Hotard said. And those are only bookings made in the first quarter, which means the flights on South Florida's dominant carrier will get more crowded. Nationwide, travel agents are reporting heavy demand for trips around the start of 2000, said James Ashurst, spokesman for the American Society of Travel Agents. Eighty-five percent of the group's 15,000 agents have booked New Year's get-aways. "It's traditionally a heavy period of travel, and when you couple that with the millennium, it's going to mean a very heavy travel time," Ashurst said. "People may be concerned (about year 2000 computer problems.) But it isn't making them not book trips."

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which runs the nation's air traffic control system, says it expects no problems from the transition to 2000. The agency, widely criticized for a late start on addressing Y2K, bases its optimistic prediction on preliminary results from a readiness test of its systems conducted at Denver International Airport and nearby air traffic facilities in mid-April. The FAA said it considered this a national test because the systems at Denver are identical to systems used nationwide.

The FAA's optimism is backed up by organizations such as the Washington-based Air Transport Association, which represents 23 of the largest U.S. carriers. They carry 95 percent of passengers and cargo in the country and are working with airports, suppliers and the government to create Y2K contingency plans. "The Denver test means we can look for the FAA's system to operate normally," said Thomas Browne, director of the association's Aviation Millennium Project. "What we're basically talking about is what kind of minor problems are we going to encounter and how are we going to deal with them."

The FAA will conduct field tests of its fixes and replacements until the end of the year, but has no plans to do a nationwide test, Bergen said. That's what makes Boyd and his fellow Colorado aviation consultant, R. Michael Baiada, nervous. They fear that as the various fixed systems interact, they may not be able to provide accurate data to controllers, for example by showing an airline flying at 30,000 feet when it's actually flying at 3,000 feet. Other aviation experts think the Y2K issue is greatly exaggerated. The most likely problem won't be with aircraft operations, but with date-sensitive functions, such as managing FAA's payroll, said John Steele, president of Information Systems Technology, a Miami software consulting firm that works with aviation companies.

Even if an air-traffic center shut down, controllers could space out aircraft departures and landings and use radar information to manually process the landings, Steele said. And, pilots are responsible anyway for not crashing into other aircraft, he said.

"Airplanes will not bump into each other," Steele said. "They will not plummet from the sky." The U.S. air traffic control system suffers minor failures almost every day, which sometimes results in flight delays. But most accidents are due to factors other than air traffic control, such as human error and weather, Steele said. "There's going to be some problems with Y2K in Central and South America and the Caribbean," Cabeza said. "But it's not going to be a significant impact."

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), May 16, 1999.

Oh well, time for one of my favorite quotes I guess. Sorry, can't pinpoint an exact date, late March this year I think...

"Implementing repairs into the real operational environment has risk due to potential complications resulting from local adaptations to ATC systems (changes made by local technicians). In the past, FAA has encountered problems installing test-center solutions at locations throughout the ATC system due to local changes.

FAA has 21 of the 65 ATC systems that have been fixed, tested, and installed at field sites. The remaining 44 systems are the most complex, and have to be installed at about 3,000 field sites in the next 3 months. This very aggressive schedule has to be carried out in conjunction with the development of other major ATC modernization projects, such as the Host replacement system."

Are we having fun yet? And the clock goes on, and on, and on and on and on and on... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 16, 1999.

Cherri - they tested one installation in one place for five hours once using one airplane - and that aircraft was specially configured too, and the whole setup was done publically only after running "pre-drills" for six days ahead of time.

This one drill was so highly publicized (the FAA head was in attendance) that it would not have mattered what happened elsewhere, or whenever - it could not fail. Having issues those caveats - and remember that when BILL GATES - who does know something about computers, whose computer company is rumored to knwo something about computers and software - demo'ed Windows 98 in the media - it crashed.

The shills the second story publicized that were so boldly quoted are no more reliable as an independent source than Bill Gates is about suns and apples. After all - it is *his* paycheck from the FAA and airlines that is being questioned.

But I forget - only the people selling Y2K supplies are affected by financial concerns........the administration would never lie or stretch the truth. Assuming they know what "is" is.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), May 21, 1999.