WHEN will the stok market collapse, and BY HOW MUCH??

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Any ideas?? I belive we will have a stock market collapse due to y2k, but when will it come?? In june, durring the summer, the fall, not 'til december, or next year?? Does anyone have an idea? Also, do you have any idea ho far it will collapse? I've been expecting it, but I have no idea of when @ by how much. Thanks in advance! :)

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), May 06, 1999


My person best guess is in October that it will collapse to about 7,500, before 1/1/2000, and to 2500 by next Feb. Any other guesses??

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), May 06, 1999.

Yes, yes, I know I answer my own posts, sorry. It's a chronic case of low self esteem, coupled with a low I.Q. In fact, I have no more idea when (or if) the stock market will crash then does Bugs Bunny. Ignore me, my mother does.

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), May 06, 1999.

Hey, y2kpro, if you're going to mock me, have the decency to do it in person, and not use my name. I had forgotten to put my own ideas in, so I added them as an afterthought. Why don't you tell me YOUR ideas smartass, instead of mocking my intelligence! You're a smartass prick, and a worthless piece of crap.

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), May 06, 1999.

Hi Crono,

I think it will collapse closer to October....only....because they are busy stoking it up so it won't collapse. This ultimately will probably make it much worse than if the collapse had come when it started last summer. Not that I know anything about the stock market though!! Hope we can keep the economy as long as possible...I am busy paying off things and getting ready...more time...better off we are!

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), May 06, 1999.

Hey Crono:

As much as I like to poke fun at your semi-literate rantings, the culprit must be someone else - and I commend them for it! :)

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), May 06, 1999.

Best guess is in 6 months. How far? 50% to 70% of what it is when it starts.

-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 06, 1999.

...and you come up with this prediction based on what economic indicators? What sort of economic model were you using?

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), May 06, 1999.

My best guess is sometime after August. The 401k money being pumped into the market weekly will start rolling downhill soon end of May or sometime in June. 12 out of the 15 couples we know good enough to talk about such things with are pulling their 401k money out now and hoping for quick disbursement. These people aren't GI's they are just scared something is gonna happen. We are in the process of getting out - check is to be cut on 5/15.

I also think when more and more pre1/1/2000 failures begin happeninmg that it will be reflected with a sharp downfall in consumer confidence but this could be offset by consumer spending as more people spend more money on truely last minute preps.

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 06, 1999.

I'd also guess around or after August. After everyone returns from vacation and begins to focus on next year. My guess is a drop in the S&P 500 of 60-80%. And a liquidity crisis in December of Biblical magnitudes, driving both long and short interest rates sky high. And crashing most real estate simultaneously. It seems to me a no-brainer to go long gasolinefutures and short airline stocks.

-- Tennessean (holladayl@aol.com), May 06, 1999.

Crono -
In case you haven't read This stock market thread (The Stock Market - Long)
I'd recommend it. Interesting read.

Mr. K

-- Mr. Kennedy (Mr.K@work.today), May 06, 1999.

Tenneseean..........You wrote 'And a liquidity crisis in December of Biblical magnitudes, driving both long and short interest rates sky high. And crashing most real estate simultaneously. It seems to me a no-brainer to go long gasolinefutures and short airline stocks.'

tut...tut.......bad punctuation.......forgot your commas again!

You should have written 'It seems to me, a no-brainer, to go long gasolinefutures and short airline stocks.'

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), May 06, 1999.

Craig, have you been hearing the Diefenbacher story again? I had to chuckle at your response, but I'm with Tennessean on this one. Me, a no-brainer? Can't argue 'til I've gotten some sleep, and maybe not even then. Later :-)

"I called the man a fool it is true and I am sorry. Put the punctuation as you will."

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), May 06, 1999.

By about September millions of Americans will be thinking..."I better take my money out of the bank before everybody else does". But a hundred million Americans will think the same thing! This will hit the news and start a run on the banks!

These same people will then also exit the stockmarket, which will cause a giant crash! Not merely to 7500, but probably to 3000 or 2000, or even lower!

Once it goes, it goes! There will be no stopping it by Clintons "plunge protection team". His team will not even try, because they know it will be futile! Once it goes, every single investor will be trying to bail out and will not wait until Feb. 2000. They know that if they wait until Feb. 2000, they will lose it all! Because of this, the market will crash in giant leaps and not a little at a time!

All those investors who have positions in the market with put options will make a bundle. I'm one of them. Every month I buy more Put positions! It's a chance of a lifetime!

-- freddie (freddie@thefreeloader.com), May 06, 1999.

My guess is that it'll go South before the end of October, by getting on for 50%, within a period of a couple of weeks. Why? Because it's the 70th anniversary of the last time it did that, and because millennial fears will synergise with fear of that anniversary and the psychological effects of cooling weather and declining daylight.

I've no idea what'll happen thereafter except that it'll be stormy.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), May 06, 1999.

the market collapse is unknown by any human...as to the month...probabilities suggest October. the magnitude? who knows. a doomsdayer would say a lot. a pollyanna would say a little. I say..who knows? if i had to post a drop....25% at the start...and depending on uncalculable things...either up or down from there. after Y2K...depending on that event......the market will skyrocket past where it was if it is a non-event...and if it causes problems...the market will collapse...and a depression of 5-6 years will result...probably longer....don't forget the 6 trillion debt load the government is carrying.....

-- rick shade (Rickoshade@aol.com), May 06, 1999.

Yes... an all-or-nothing bet. Funny this Y2K thing, it's like the whole world is Vegas. A Vegas where your very life may be on the line

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), May 06, 1999.

The two Westergaard 2000 articles at these links are a must- read:



-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 07, 1999.

Some have commented that the recent rise in stocks is due to foreign money fleeing third world countries seeking safety in countries known to be further advanced in remediations. The whammy is that this means currency risk (and indirectly bond market risk) for the foreign money. At some point they will recognize that they are losing money by keeping it in US Dollar denominated assets. Then they will sell the $ assets, sell their $$$'s and buy .. ??? Possibly gold or silver or back into their own country's basic infrastructure (farms, oil, minerals)??? Who knows but the effect will be to start the down hill slide of US$ value and markets.

At this time the US bond market is failing in major ways and has reached the point where people are losing major money. Derivatives will get wiped out (the derivatives commitments are HUGE in comparison to the total GDP of the world). The whipsawing will increase and defaults will cascade. The next 9 to 12 months will be one of shear terror for the wealthy of this world.

Try to stay out of the way of it. Being stampled is no great experience.

BTW 'limit down' and 'limit up' may become new phrases to the public at large. What it means is that the market has gone one way or the other over a certain limit and that no more trading is allowed for that day. If you are trying to trade (either commodities or stocks) you will not be allowed to do so on the open market. This will be like locking people into a burning house. Particularly those who are short (have borrowed and sold with commitment to return shares or lots later) in a 'limit up' market. Their losses can bancrupt them overnight. In a short positiopn there is no limit to losses whereas in a 'long' position you stand to lose only what you paid and no more.

Its a tricky world out there. Like I said, the next few months will be very interesting. Just stay out of the way.

-- David (C.D@I.N), May 07, 1999.

Hey, I'm with Freddie (about 5 posts above). I think we are in for a big rollercoaster ride; mostly down. One contributing factor nobody has mentioned is the global nature of todays investment community. Much of the money in todays U.S. stock market is from foreigners. When Japan went down, many people moved their money to the U.S. markets. When South America went down, more money came in. That is the a contributing factor for the upward trend over the past 6 months or so. Another factor is the hugh excess of money coming from retirement accounts. In 1 in 10 were to pull their money from stocks, the market would drop significantly (my SWAG is 25%). When the panic from that downward move sets in, look out below.

One more thing. I'm out of the stock market, 100% into money market funds. What good will those bonds be when everybody is defaulting? Where is my money more safe? Don't tell me gold. I have too much of that worthless $^%#^%$# now! Has anybody looked at a 15 year trend on gold. All in the downward direction. I would really like an answer. Cash isn't much of an option, either. Is it?

Sorry for the long post.


-- John Layman (jlayman@srv.net), May 20, 1999.

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