What to make of this?

Full story at:

http://www.kcstar.com:80/item/pages/business.pat,business/30daf2cd.430,.html

(Snip)

Kansas City Star

The hype about Y2K is beginning to ebb

By DAVID HAYES and FINN BULLERS - Columnist Date: 04/30/99 22:15

CHICAGO -- The people who run Comdex, the nation's top technology trade show, must be wondering just what to think about this whole Y2K thing.

They flew in an expert from California to talk about Y2K contingency planning. Fewer than 20 people showed up -- that's 20 of the more than 80,000 people who attended the trade show in Chicago last week.

The story was much the same on the second day of the show. Lawyers were flown in from both coasts to talk about Y2K legal issues. Those who showed up for the panel discussion wouldn't have filled one row in a room that could hold 200.

And the session on "Y2K silver linings"? Forget it.

Maybe Howard Anderson, managing director of the Yankee Group, a Boston research firm, summed it up best when he talked to a group of industry analysts and reporters before the show began.

"Y2K is over. Now what happens?"

(End snip)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), May 01, 1999

Answers

Simple, FM. Y2K "never happened": it took too long to unfold to suit our post-modern attention span. Wait, you mean it hasn't happened yet? Nahh .........

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 01, 1999.

beans,we gotta buy more beans while the world sleeps

-- zoobie (zoobie@zoob.zab), May 01, 1999.

Grasshopper, you can not get to the end point, unless you have a begining point.

-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 01, 1999.

The truth is staring the Doomlets right in the face and they refuse to see it.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 01, 1999.

Stephen,

Maybe you can answer my question from another post. "The truth is a lie that has yet to be exposed." What does that mean?

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), May 01, 1999.

Nature teaches ... tides .. ebb ... and ... flow.

The "no problem" spring spin now flows.

Stay tuned.

Await the fall ... foliage.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), May 01, 1999.

FM,

What I make of it is that some no longer believe that the power grid is going down and staying down. That's a clear concept that was motivating some people to prepare last summer and fall.

With the risk of a grid-induced TEOTWAWKI apparently smaller now, Y2K planning and preparation is getting less clear-cut and takes more analysis. Increasingly, personal contingency planning deals with questions such as will food, gasoline and jobs still be plentiful next year.

The availability of food, gasoline, clothing and jobs next year is not a trivial issue. In my humble opinion, careful personal contingency planning is still the prudent thing to do.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 01, 1999.

Diane,

Falls the last leaf colorful and perfect past the blinded eyes Touches ground, and waits the Coming Flame

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), May 01, 1999.

This one's not too hard to understand...

The attendees are the same tunnel-vision people who sold everyone noncompliant products.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), May 01, 1999.

Stephen, you and the pollys have yet to ever answer any of my posts about Florida Power. And I do enjoy the fact that I am right and safe in my preparedness.

Why, if Y2K is over, are the top executives having my friends install generators at their estates throughout Florida?

If someone can answer this question to my satisfaction, I will become a polly too (doubtful that this will happen).

-- John Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), May 01, 1999.

It is times like this when all hell breaks loose. People are thinking about school violence and Kosovo. People are getting Y2K complacent. Then some big player in stocks decides to cash in his chips, just when we least expect it. Panic on Wall Street, bank runs! Keep your ears and eyes wide open.

-- @ (@@@.@), May 01, 1999.

John,

Stephen, you and the pollys have yet to ever answer any of my posts about Florida Power.

Probably because I've never SEEN one of your posts about Florida Power (and I don't live in Florida besides). Or maybe I did, but don't recall it now. What specific questions did you raise?

And I do enjoy the fact that I am right and safe in my preparedness.

Nothing wrong with being prepared, sir. I plan to buy a generator as soon as we move out of this apartment. Comes from years of living through severe thunderstorms and hurricanes.

Why, if Y2K is over, are the top executives having my friends install generators at their estates throughout Florida?

I don't know. Why don't you ask them? Maybe it's because the prices have dropped to the point that it's almost silly NOT to have a generator nowdays. That's how I feel, anyway. If someone can answer this question to my satisfaction, I will become a polly too (doubtful that this will happen).

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 01, 1999.

John,

I'm having a bad day. The last sentence in the previous post was yours. :)

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 01, 1999.

Maybe the Florida Power folks finally listened to the National Hurricane Center about their predictions rearding the upcoming season. It's supposed to be a doozy.

In light of my comment above, I would like to ask Mr. Poole since it's all right to prep for a hurricane that isn't even on the weather charts, how come if we prep for an economic hurricane (hopefully economic is all it will be) we are chastised and criticized as 'doomers'.

(Yes, you're right. You HAVE had a bad day if some of your other posts today are any indication.) Take two advil and call your doctor in the am.

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), May 02, 1999.

Lobo,

It's not easy to put people into neat little boxes with neat little labels. I do think that Y2K has been horribly overblown. It's just another computer bug; it's not the first, and it certainly won't be the last.

Simply put: the "domino" scenarios, the massive disruptions, the widespread shortages, the JIT blowups, the ten-year recessions, etc., ad nauseum -- they're all based on junk science and sheer guesswork (and yes, I *ESPECIALLY* include government reports in that).

(We are, after all, talking about the same government that insisted -- INSISTED, mind you -- that the rain forests would be completely wiped out within 10 years ... about 12 years ago.)

I do believe that there will be some problems with Y2K -- probably even a coupla or three whoppers. But I also believe that we'll work around this, because computers (and even businesses) fail all the time now, and we work around it.

(Look at what just happened in Asia: thousands of computers got hammered, almost simultaneously, by a devastating computer virus. But I'll bet you cash against donuts that within a few weeks, it'll be a faded memory. They'll work around it. Bet me.[g])

I have nothing against common-sense preparations. If you require special medication, you should stock some extra -- NOT BECAUSE OF Y2K, but because YOU SHOULD HAVE BEEN DOING THIS ALL ALONG ANYWAY. So yeah, in that sense, maybe Y2K has been a good thing, because people have finally realized that maybe the Giant won't always be there at 3AM to sell them a carton of milk.

What I think is silly is going overboard. Here in Birmingham, there are people who are actually saying that "seeds will be better than gold next year." I've got news for you: if it gets that bad -- if it gets so bad that you NEED a 1-year supply of food on hand, then we're all in the crapper, anyway.

(And anyone who thinks a couple of guns in the basement will let them weather a complete breakdown of society is living in a Hollywood fantasy, complete with Mel Gibson and Tina Turner in studded leather.)

Finally, I especially take issue with the charlatans, hucksters, snake-oil salesmen, and plain outright bandits who've flocked into Y2K like stink on sewage, playing on people's fears to sell them far more survival materials than they could possibly need. These people rank just lower than cockroaches in my food chain.

(Many of them are posting here under generic "handles," _deliberately_ trying to keep the hysteria alive, because sales have been dropping for some weeks now.)

From my point of view, exposing them for what they are -- and exposing their LIES and MISINFORMATION about Y2K -- is a public service on my part. For that, you should thank me.

In sum: if you want to prepare, have right at it. I won't say a word. I keep about 2-3 weeks' extra on hand myself, and have done that for years (long before I ever even heard of a "Y2K"). That's just common sense in my book.

But don't come up to me talking about how Y2K is going to kill modern society; it isn't. It CAN'T. THAT'S what I take issue with.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 02, 1999.

"Not even God himself could sink this ship." -- Employee of the White Star Line, at the launch of the Titanic, May 31, 1911

When the British ship Titanic steamed out of Southampton bound for New York on April 10, 1912, it was the largest and most sumptuous luxury liner that had ever sailed. It was a monument to the promise of technology and to Victorian elegance, magnificently appointed with oriental carpets and crystal chandeliers. It was thought to be unsinkable.

Confidence was so high that the owners and builders rejected plans calling for as many as 64 lifeboats. Although the number of lifeboats on the Titanic (20) exceeded government standards, the boats would only accommodate about half of the 2,228 people aboard. In one of history's great ironies, the Titanic sank on its maiden voyage, after colliding with an iceberg off the banks of Newfoundland. More than 1,500 people died in the accident.

Link

-- Titanic quotation (says@it.all), May 02, 1999.

"Look at what just happened in Asia: thousands of computers got hammered, almost simultaneously, by a devastating computer virus. But I'll bet you cash against donuts that within a few weeks, it'll be a faded memory. They'll work around it."

Yes, and the electricity was still on.

Whole lot easier to muddle through when the basics work. Can't fix a computer w/out juice, and ... internationally ... many countries WILL have power problems. In the US certain unknown areas likely will as well.

Y2K is different that a virus or your ordinary bug ... way different.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), May 02, 1999.

Diane,

Whole lot easier to muddle through when the basics work. Can't fix a computer w/out juice ...

You have no reason to believe that the electricity won't be on ... unless you're still reading old reports and information?

I'm going to start calling this the "Go Round In Circles" forum. If someone addresses one concern, the Doomlits immediately bring up another. If someone addresses that, the Doomlits bring up a third (or better yet, cut and paste an entire page of information from some government report written by the clueless for the clueless). If someone addresses the third contention, the Doomlits go right back to the first one.

Doomlits have accepted, a priori, that Y2K will Be Bad, and won't consider evidence to the contrary. It's just that simple.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 02, 1999.

"Pollylits have accepted, a priori, that Y2K will Be Good, and won't consider evidence to the contrary. It's just that simple."

Great, now that we've got the ridiculous over-simplifications out of the way, Poole, we can move on to your next point. Which is?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 02, 1999.

Big Dog,

Show me some independently-verifiable proof that the Y2K bug is NOT being fixed. Not supposition, not speculation, not third-hand stories from a friend of a friend.

I've shown you plenty of evidence that it IS being fixed. April 1st, the Euro, and dozens of other examples exist.

Put your fingers where your mouth is. Start typing. Don't give me essays and "gut feelings" and "I don't knows" and "I'm still worried." Give me some hard RECENT numbers (not stuff from two years ago, either).

Can you do that? I'm waiting .. . .. (tap ... tap ... tap ...)

-- Stephen M. Poole, CEt (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 02, 1999.

Stephen,

you demonstrated that some small portions of the y2k problem are being fixed. you have not demonstrated that the entire infrastructure is even being addressed, much less remediated. Glass is still half empty.

Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 02, 1999.

Arlin -- Let's even speculate that the glass will be 80% full by YE, unlikely though that is worldwide. Poole has no clue (not do I or anyone) what the impact of the remaining 20% will be: bump to TEOTWAWKI. It is simply impossible to know, in principle.

Bump the percentage to 90% or 95%: it's still impossible, because we cannot judge in advance what that so-called percentage equates to in hard fixes, tests, etc. and, consequently, in final impact.

This is why, though I hesitate to speak for him, Flint is preparing like a doomer even though he seems to think that the 80% or whatever will constitute a linearly positive dynamic (ie, the remaining errors will be minor because the big ones were focused on first). This is possible though I have methodological doubts about it with respect to Y2K.

I'm getting very tired of Poole the more it's dawning on me that he really doesn't know anything germane to Y2K. I mean, he REALLY doesn't, this isn't a flame.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 02, 1999.

Mr. Poole is waiting to be convinced - "tap- tap." What arrogance !

Whether Mr. Poole is "convinced" and "approves" of anyone's level of preparation is of no consequence. I sure as hell ain't gonna waste MY time trying to convince him of anything. If he doesn't wish to prepare and believes y2k is of no consequence, he should be willing to live with that decision. I assume he has the critical thinking skills to make his own assessment. (I wish he extended me the same respect.)

It is irrelevant to me whether anyone else agrees with my personal risk assessment and preparation. This is not a consensus-based process, nor a democratic process. It is my life. I am the one who will suffer the consequences of my decisions. Mr. Poole won't be bringing me dinner if I have no food in the pantry. I take personal and adult responsibility for my actions.

Why do we all have to agree? I am so fed up with people trying to force their patriarchial views about what is "best" for me on my life and lifestyle. Please don't bother to try and save me from myself MR. Poole.

-- excuseme (excuseme@ahem.com), May 03, 1999.

John Galt would not only NOT ask such a questions, he would not have thought that way. He did not ask such questions for he already knew the answers.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), May 03, 1999.