To whom it concerns, Y2K seems to be generating an enormous amount of discussion and debate on the internet and in the US press generally; this discussion group is symptomatic of this. The view from this side of the Atlantic is that all this is slightly surreal; I don't deny Y2K is an issue, not at all, but it is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to get anyone you talk to here to take it seriously at all. It is universally dismissed as hype, a scam invented by contractors that even if it does cause problems will be trivial and easily fixed. I've had conversations with intelligent people here - and we Irish are very outward-looking - and it's a waste of time. Needless to say, there is no national debate or plan here at all; not a penny extra was allocated in our recent budget. That's why I find all the preparations people refer to on this site amusing; no-one here is taking any such preparations, and there is no market for generators, flashlights or beans. What is the reality here !??

A quick question for any economists: Ireland is in the 5th year of a massive boom: GNP growth was 9% last year; employment has grown 25% in the last 3 years; house prices are up 250% on 1996; interest rates remain extremely low due to our joining EMU, but so is inflation; people are borrowing and spending like there's no tomorrow. Anyone like to speculate as to the effect of Y2K on our little "Celtic tiger" ?? Fergal P.S. Winters are really mild here - avg Jan temp 9 degrees - and there's loads of farmland given the population size (Ireland is three times the size of Holland and has five times less people) - so maybe our Y2K-ignorant island might do alright anyway, if things do turn out badly ?

-- Fergal O'Shea (osheaf@indigo.ie), March 30, 1999

Answers

Fergal,

According to the article at this link...

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/y2kcountries981228.h tml

...Ireland is in the catagory of most remediated countries. The top tier, which includes Ireland, are countries where "only" 15% of companies will experience a mission-critical system failure.

Also see this article:

http://www.joc.com/issues/990308/p1age1/e20324.htm

"Experts warn of Y2K trade upheaval - Each nation's problem will become a global one"

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 30, 1999.

Welcome to the group, Fergal.

As Kevin says Ireland is high on the reported preparedness list. As long as the respondents haven't been kissing the Blarney Stone the inside of Ireland should be OK. Now, have a look at your trade, have a look at the upside and downside supply systems in your trading partners. Have they all got their act together?

I hope so... also have a look at the historical accounts of the period just before the infamous Wall Street crash. The parallels are seriously worrying. How was Ireland affected by the Crash? As a small nation too we in NZ look on in some concern at the machinations of larger countries. Be interested to hear your responses.

-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), March 31, 1999.

Fergal, Much the same in England...if it is any consolation.Total apathy from the man in the street.I went after a Coleman lamp last week.The shopkeeper had a choice of 10 & said he normally had more but this was his busy time as it was the start of the fishing season. Unless you are on the Net and looking at the Y2K sites (which nobody I knows does) the world's a happy/smiley place and the government & business have it all under control. (Of course you have got to thinking about Y2K to even get this far!) I have found the same complacent/apathetic attitude amongst our suppliers. The only cause of anxiety I can find is whether the central heating will still work at home. Everybody thinks I am NUTS & OTT.Like a lot of people on the Forum,I've just shut up about the preps.

If the world goes to the end in a handcart,at least I'll be riding a bicycle!

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), March 31, 1999.