Just purchased this book over the weekend, and wonder if anyone else has read it. His scenario section is the one that I wonder about. He seems very optimistic to me. He feels that a level 10 (complete collapse) is less than 1 percent... and says that a "tracking clue" for this type of total breakdown would be

"Significant Y2K failures show up in more systems than expected, causing problems and leading to panic...."

My question is how would we know, given the level of nonsense we are being spoon-fed by the media?

I know next to nothing about the author's reputation, Y2K-wise, and hope that those of you who know something about him will offer your opinion as to his credibility on these issues

-- housemouse (jgj@nevermind.net), March 15, 1999

Answers

Hi! I don't know the author but the following are my thoughts on a 10 based on 18 years in intelligence analysis. We are most likely to have a 10 only if warfare breaks out around the world. There is a small possibility of this because so many countries hate each other with a vengeance and if they feel each other's defenses are down, might attack. In this same light, a 10 could be started by nuclear weapons being launched from sites that are noncompliant, such as those in Russia, North Korea or India. This could have a negative disastrous domino effect on the world economy and start major warfare between countries.

To summarize, if we don't have major warfare break out in the world, we will eventually be okay. If it does break out, I think we may have extreme difficulties getting out of the Y2K quagmire.

-- Apple (villarta@itsnet.com), March 15, 1999.

Mr. Webster is founder (under Fannie Maessponsorship) and co-chair of the Washington, D.C Year 2000 Group, (www.wdcy2k.org) the largest  over 1500 members  and most active Y2K organization in the world.

What I can't understand is the idea that the programmers and commentators are putting out these PREP books. What do they know about preparing for Y2k if it is worst case and for the common folk. Of course this comment is not directed towards our gracious host :o) Actions speak louder than words eh?

You folk are the bottom line. We all have valuable input in the preperations that we must make. We are each our own book on preparing. Thanks for your contributions. More on that Soon.

Oh ya Bruce is a cohort of Cory Hamasaki. So they balance each other out I guess

Brian

-- Brian (imager@ampsc.com), March 15, 1999.

Just FYI, Bruce Webster is nowhere around DC anymore - he's in the Great State of Tejas. I understand he comes back to DC 1X per month for the dcy2k meetings.

-- Night (y2k_nightmare@my-dejanews.com), March 15, 1999.

Thnaks to all of you. I appreciate knowing something about the reputation of the authors I read..

-- housemouse (jgj@nevermind.net), March 15, 1999.