In the closing days of World War II, the Germans unleashed two weapons on England: the V1 and V2 rockets. Actually the V1 -- the buzz bomb was a ram jet, not a rocket, while the V2 was a true rocket. These weapons were indiscriminate -- they killed soldiers or children alike, it was a miracle when they landed in the right country, let alone hit a city. They did relatively little damage to the physical infrastructure of England, nor were they intended to do so. They were intended to strike terror into the hearts of the population. A credit to the British -- they didnt panic.

During the early years following World War II, two nations embarked on a race to develop weapons that were capable of reaching anywhere in the world. The U.S. and the (then) U.S.S.R. were determined to achieve superiority. Not to do so would lead to the destruction of the way of life of the failing nation, or so it was thought.

Both nations pursued ambitious space programs. For good reason: the control of space was vital to control of the planet; preventing the other side from controlling space was vital for preventing that side from controlling earth.

This was a costly race, and although the two nations got bogged down in wars on the planet (the U.S. in Vietnam, the Soviets in Afghanistan) the big bucks were being spent in space and in missiles. The author spent four years in the 1970s at the Kwajalein Re-Entry Measurement Site (Kwajalein, Marshall Islands, Trust Territory of the Pacific) where missiles and associated parts, usually launched from California, would be tracked by several radars and sensors as they came over the horizon, well outside the earths atmosphere, and then began re-entry.

Literally billions of dollars were spent searching for an answer to one simple question: How do we tell the warhead -- the thing that goes boom -- from the rest of the junk, including decoys, strips of chaff, nuts, bolts, and pieces of booster that have been propelled into space and will return to earth in some sort of package? Solving that problem was necessary for the simple reason that it was impossible to launch an interceptor at every piece of junk flying into radar coverage.

As a result, the people at Kwajalein were very knowledgeable about radar. Often we would re-built major portions of the radar from week to week, in order to try something new. But, the real answer to the question of how to tell the warhead from the junk appeared to lie in a series of sensors that would detect the missile shortly after launch and a series of weapons that would destroy it before it went exo-atmospheric. Ronald Regan introduced this concept and it was promptly derided with the name Star Wars.

The economy of one country crumbled under the strain, and the breakup of the U.S.S.R. followed.

During all of this, other countries had been watching -- and planning. An outgrowth of the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) race had been the development of shorter range (and far less expensive Tactical Ballistic Missiles (TBMs), with ranges from 50 to 600 miles. Some of these didnt even get out of the atmosphere -- they just went up and came down.

A common TBM was the Scud type B, initially developed by the Soviets, but soon found all through the Middle East. This missile really didnt go far enough for practical purposes, so the simple expedient of putting a booster on it to increase the range was employed, resulting in the Scud C. This has been very popular -- and a cheap way of dumping 1000 pounds of explosive on some unsuspecting city. Everyone and their twin brother seems to have them, especially in the Middle East.

TBMs are a great weapon for the unscrupulous. They fly a long ways, theyre cheap, they can cause terror when the come down on an unsuspecting population -- and they are capable of being outfitted with chemical, biological or nuclear warheads.

TBMs are much harder to shoot down than an aircraft. The only known attempts occurred during the Gulf War, when Patriots shot at a batch of Scuds, but never hit one. Later it was found that the Patriot system suffered from a clock problem. This problem didnt effect Patriot when it was doing the job it was designed to do (protecting troops from enemy aircraft), but prevented the system from being effective in Gulf War operations.

Several lessons were learned from this:

1. A lot of nations decided that TBMs were the wave of the future, since they couldnt be stopped. 2. The U.S. (and Israel) learned that they had a lot of work to do to put forward an effective defense. Israel, particularly, is vulnerable, because its their country that is in danger of getting hit. The U.S., on the other hand, has to put forward a good story about protecting allies. Both countries are hard at work on defense systems. The US has actually been pursuing two systems -- one is land based, the other sea based.

The sea based system uses the versatile Aegis system, with the phased array AN/SPY-1 radar. Two Aegis cruisers, specially equipped with Linebacker systems are taking part in the current Operation Urban Warrior exercises being held in California. Contrary to the opinion of people who see every military exercise as practice for civilian domination by the military, this exercise is realistic training for very possible warfare.

North Korea has been quietly developing missile capability. In fact, its estimated that North Korea has sold well over a billion dollars of missiles to countries in the Middle East.

Now, consider this:

1. North Korea is being savaged by famine. Reports from people who have entered North Korea from the border with China indicate that starvation in rampant and that large elements of the population are dying off. But, Korea is also building a monster missile arsenal, spending huge sums of money, and upgrading the range of their missiles so that they now go beyond the Tactical Ballistic Missile stage -- useful on battle fronts -- becoming Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, capable of impacting the U.S. 2. In Russia, we see pictures of bread lines and the collapse of the economy. But also we learn of massive Russian investments in fall-out shelters (some documented to be bigger than large cities) and in new missiles that are capable of even greater destruction than those now in silos. We can also read reports that indicate that Russian missiles (like our own) need maintenance, that unless they are maintained the capability to fire them is lost, and that within the next few years they will lose 90% of their current crop. [1,2] We also learn that the Russians will probably lose much of their own retaliatory systems because of Y2K problems, leaving them blind. What many people dont realize is that currently the Russians employ a dead man launch system -- their missiles are automatically launched if the system doesnt get the proper inputs. [1,2]

To quote from Chris Ruddys series of articles on Russia and China, carried by NewsMax.com, (http://www.worldnetdaily.com) [1]:

The Y2K-related failure of Russia's early warning system could even result in an automatic attack against the US. Most people in the West don't realize it, but Russia has long had a "doomsday defense system." This system is designed to enable Russia to survive a US nuclear first strike and to launch a devastating retaliation even if no commanders are left alive in Russia to issue the orders. This system is designed to automatically launch nuclear missiles at the US if an event occurs that the computer interprets as a Western attack -- such as a loss of satellite and radar systems. The default target of thousands of Russian strategic missiles are cities in the United States and Europe.

Well aware of this problem, US military officials have recommended that the US and Russia place observers in each others' nuclear control rooms next December, to prevent an accidental launch.

An even more disturbing possibility has not been reported by the press: That is the possibility that the Russian general staff -- which is well aware of their Y2K and economic problems -- may have already decided to strike the United States before their defense systems fail on January 1, 2000. Thus, in an extremely ominous sign, on December 17, 1997, President Yeltsin, issued a 37-page policy statement, reneging on previous pledges not to use nuclear weapons first. [1] 3. India and Pakistan have each developed missiles that will carry their nuclear warheads to each others nations. [2,3,4] 4. China, too, is building missiles, and attempts to influence Taiwan by testing such missiles in the direction of that island. [2,3,4]

We live in a very dangerous world. We live in a far more dangerous world than most of us realize. During the 1950s we learned much about surviving a nuclear war. For the most part, that knowledge has been lost to the general public.

The interesting thing is that there is very little difference between surviving a nuclear attack and surviving a very bad Y2K:

7 Dont live near a populated area (or military targets). This gives new meaning to if you live within 5 miles of a 7-11, youre toast; 7 Have several weeks of stored food and water; 7 Have survival supplies (water filter, lamps, source of heat if required, buckets and trash bags for sanitary purposes); 7 Have the ability to generate food during the next growing season (seeds).

The only major difference is the need for a fallout shelter.

Those who mock or deride preparation might want to look at the real world around them. There can be more than one use for stored food, for water, for shelter, and for survival supplies. _____________

References:

1. http://www.newsmax.com: Russia and China Prepare for War, Christopher Ruddy, March 9-12, 1999.

2. http://www.newsmax.com: Defector Reveals Russian War Plans, Christopher Ruddy, February 8, 1999.

3. Missiles for All, The New Global Threat, IEE Spectrum, pp 20-28, March, 1999

4. Old Rivalries, New Arsenals, IEE Spectrum, pp 29-31, March, 1999

5. http://www.fas.org/irpthreat/missile/index.html. Web Site maintained by the Federation of American Scientists.

6. The Proliferation Primer, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs. Can be downloaded from [5].

-- De (dealton@concentric.net), March 14, 1999

Answers

May as well stick your head up your butt and kiss your ass goodbye! We are all doomed! Keep posting the doom and gloom so the DGIs really won't get it! At this point in time it all really doesn't matter.

-- Adios (AdiosAmeigos@bye.com), March 14, 1999.

De; Scary post.-----

Adios; awuu not so harsh.

Being

-- Being (quiet@home.org), March 14, 1999.

Disconcerting!

-- Watchful (seethesea@msn.com), March 14, 1999.

I'm preparing for a Great Depression, but I realize my preparations are indequate; nevermind that almost everyone else around me is still asleep. All the warnings have been given; they've seen it on TV and heard it from coworkers. They simply don't want to believe it, for then they would be forced to change their lifestyles.

Sometimes I feel odd being aware and concerned about what is coming while others are more interested in the latest movies or sports, oblivious to the approaching depression. We've been given adequate warnings. There's no excuse to be unprepared. The crash will take every DGI by surprise, and then they'll be angry at the GI for not having been warned earnestly enough to take appropriate measures. That's human nature.

I think North Korea might send a nuclear warhead into South Korea.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), March 14, 1999.

Dino, that's the whole point in my rantings, we get the picture, and we may be a loss for words. And why do you think North Korea is going to launch a nuclear war head onto South Korea? Since we all want "FACTS" where are they? And let's just play the whole nuclear scenario out....North Korea wipes out South Korea with a nuclear bomb, South Korea is unhabitable, can't grow anything there, nothing but dead bodies and contaminated soil, North Korea suffers environmentally just as well....who is the winner? The biggest problem is the food chain, the land and seas it will affect...not likely to happen unless they are complete idiots.

-- Adios (AdiosAmeigos@bye.com), March 14, 1999.

We have faced nuclear warfare since the '50's half a century ago we have faced down the COLD WAR and an un easy peace lives.. All of these things are indetermant... It requires an enemy to strike at us...

Y2K Is not indetermant... It is a date cast in stone... You can banter all you want about solar flares, warfare, contrails, ad nausium.....

Y2K will arive on scheadual... On Date.. As advertized.... The only question is HOW BIG... remember there wer serious worries that the ATOMIC (Not themonuclear) bomb would burn up the atomosphere... Y2K is the big one.... the question is HOW BIG......

-- helium (helium@avid.com), March 14, 1999.

Adios:

I'm speculating. North Korea bombs South Korea. All of Asia panics and millions make runs on their banks. Japan tanks. The domino effect is started and Wall Street crashes through the floor. Hello, depression.

Better hope I'm completely wrong.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), March 14, 1999.

Aww, dino. You give the NK's too much credit. Actually for the economy to crump, it won't take a nuclear attack anywhere. All it will take is an overthrow of one of the oil producing countries with the coup d'etat winner being a sect that hates America and her allies. Japan imports 100% of her oil. What happens to Japanese economics if the cost of her oil goes thru the roof? Do you think Mr.Clinton will offer our Strategic Reserves? Don't count on it.

Venezuela and Brazil are already pronounced toast by the CIA and the State Dept. These two countries suppy 30 % of our imported oil. I think they provide a fairly significant percentage of Japan's, too. What happens if they go down? Then the Shiek's son decides to get in the oil business and shuts down the western allies. Guess what? I don't know about Japan, but the US just lost 80% of her imports.

Without oil--even a 15% drop--Japan's economy will fall into a depression. Without Japan's money to bolster our Treasury bonds, the US economy is toast. Who needs nucear weapons to do the job???

-- Lobo (Hiding@woods.com), March 15, 1999.

Aww, dino. You give the NK's too much credit. Actually for the economy to crump, it won't take a nuclear attack anywhere. All it will take is an overthrow of one of the oil producing countries with the coup d'etat winner being a sect that hates America and her allies. Japan imports 100% of her oil. What happens to Japanese economics if the cost of her oil goes thru the roof? Do you think Mr.Clinton will offer our Strategic Reserves? Don't count on it.

Venezuela and Brazil are already pronounced toast by the CIA and the State Dept. These two countries suppy 30 % of our imported oil. I think they provide a fairly significant percentage of Japan's, too. What happens if they go down? Then the Shiek's son decides to get in the oil business and shuts down the western allies. Guess what? I don't know about Japan, but the US just lost 80% of her imports.

Without oil--even a 15% drop--Japan's economy will fall into a depression. Without Japan's money to bolster our Treasury bonds, the US economy is toast. Who needs nuclear weapons to do the job???

-- Lobo (Hiding@woods.com), March 15, 1999.

I am preparing to live life.

-- Watchful (seethesea@msn.com), March 15, 1999.

I am preparing to struggle right up to the last ounce of energy in me, right up till they nail the lid on.

And hopefully have done some small scrap of good for someone along the way and to have added some miscroscopic amount of good to the world we leave for the next generation.

--Greybear

- Got Hope?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), March 15, 1999.

I am preparing, in part, by becoming part of the new community in which I live.

My neighbors are sharing information, resources and ideas for creating contingencies for nearly every scenario. We are getting the word out to every other area nearby.

We are planning for what will follow the breakdown.... planning for a future that is a lot more based on agriculture, hand-made and home- made, and back to basics.

-- Sara Nealy (keithn@ptd.net), March 15, 1999.

First, thanks for the info on Russia. I'd suggest everyone get a copy of Cresson Kearny's book "Nuclear War Survival Skills." I'm preparing for y2k supply line collapse, a 6-9 on the y2k scale. But I am more and more thinking of building a fallout shelter in a basement. I'd say we are at considerable risk of being blackmailed by Russia come y2k, if we don't airlift food and supplies to Russia, well they just take out Detroit. After all, this is the exact strategy we used in WWII, take out a city until you meet our demands. I suggest everyone rent and watch the movie "Testament." Maybe a lot of sandbags would be a good idea..

-- Les Holladay (holladayl@aol.com), March 15, 1999.

"Nuclear War Survival Skills" is on-line, and can be read at:

Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine

...free to download, read and utilize. They also offer it for sale in printed form.

BTW, my opinion of the movie "Testament" is that it is, like "On The Beach" and "The Day After", a propaganda piece designed to foster a "preparation is futile" attitude among the American populace.

Result? a large number of sheep being led to the slaughter: "Guess we'll just bend over and kiss our a**es goodbye." "There's nothing we can do." Defeatist bulls**t... I intend to live through WHATEVER happens, God willing.

Got shovels?

-- sparks (wireless@home.com), March 15, 1999.

West coast will have approximately 6-10 minutes after a launch.

-- Neva (marinermama@seanet.com), March 18, 1999.