Conversations with City Emergency Services people (Water, Health, Police, Ambulance and Fire Services) indicate that worst case scenarios implicate all emergency services at the same time. Yet most contingency/continuity plans detail interdependencies and sharing of loads with other agencies that do not make sense under Y2K.

It is clear to me that Y2K requires special self reliant community contingency/continuity plans.

How many emergency services organisations across the globe need to be reminded that Y2K impacts will be felt over the same time period?

Load shifting will not work and should be removed from emergency services planning groups thinking. My view is that in every emergency services locality across the globe should instigate discussions about how to carry out effective communication between groups and between emergency services and the public.

Any ideas/examples on how this should be carried out, short of leaving it to the military?

-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), March 01, 1999

Answers

One more time...

Take a look at the document FEMA posted on its website (in PDF format) for y2k contingency planning/consequence management for state and local emergency management officials. It's a checklist that, if followed, will get their heads in gear to deal with what they will have to handle come rollover. The site is at http://www.fema.gov. The doc is about 50 pages. I already gave a printed copy to my local volunteer fire/rescue chief, who's the only "emergency official" in my neck of the woods.

You won't have a self reliant community until it is populated largely by self reliant people. Individual preps are critical, since the infrastructure can only support a minimum of refugees for a short time. The official spin so far is easily ignored by Joe Lunchbox, who shrugs off anything short of immediate threats of unmitigated disaster while in singleminded pursuit of teevee, cold brewski, Jerry Springer guest spots etc. The apparent (obvious?) conclusion: Joe Lunchbox ain't gonna make it.

Do you begin to understand the "move to the country" mentality yet??

-- nobody (nobody@here.com), March 01, 1999.

Bob, There's not but so much you can do. You've got to preserve your credibility for the next 8 or 9 months or everything you say will be totally ignored. Few people will argue with the Red Cross. The Red Cross has a handout. Get this, copy it and stick a copy on every mailbox in the neighborhood. Do this in March. If your State Emergency Management Division has a disaster prep handout. Then get it and hang one on every box in April. Then find a agency that advocates more preparation, such as the Royal Canadian Mounted Police who advocate 2 weeks of food and a month of water. Type this up and hang one on every box in May. Try to keep the pressure on every month, but only use impeccable sources. Make no predictions. Just be a conduit for authoritative sources. During the summer, try to get a small committee of neighborhood folks to make phone calls asking people to adhere to Red Cross recommendations. See if people are aware of the RCMP recommendations. Ask people if they've made plans if the power goes out. (To emphasize, don't call anyone until you've handed out several months worth of fliers. You need to build some credibility.) Anyway, this is rushed, but hopefully it give you some idea of what one person can do.

You may as well be prepared to catch some flak and maybe some ridicule, but this ain't an awards show. Most people will appreciate your true concern. Even those people you never hear from will learn something from your efforts.

Remember, Bob, this is not about stroking your ego. You'll be tempted to say to hell with it let'em starve, but I'd urge you to never give up as long as you have the time and energy to serve your community. I'd be glad to talk with you about this further.

You get it. The responsibility is on your shoulders. Local politicians may be able to help, but they're either DGI's or too cowardly to get out in front of this controversial issue. In any event, the politicians won't sign on until you have created a demand from the local voters.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 01, 1999.

The best example of successful grass roots preparedness comes from either Oregon cities in the Willamette valley (McMinnville comes to mind) or The Joseph Project (http://www.josephproject2000.org).

I used to live in Charlotte, NC. I spoke to many churches and many government officials before they had really even thought about it. No response  no sense of urgency. The time to act was 18 to 24 months ago  not with 10 months to go. Yes, I think many people can begin to help their community, but I believe its too late for a whole community. Go for your neighbors, family, and friends.

Since my community efforts most of last year, Ive determined that they just wont get it in time. We moved rural, where I still talk to community officials in Des Moines and through my position at work, but its still a lost cause for the most part. FEMA guys and county EMS think this is like a tornado-type emergency and just rehash their current preparation plans.

Me and my family? Were digging a root cellar, buying non-hybrid seeds, and getting ready to be completely without convenience stores, propane fuel, and toilet paper sometime in 2000. This will wind down  not just happen all at once. January 1, 2000 will be crappy because of breakdowns and public response, but the sands in the gears wont really be felt until later in the year. Ever heard of the JoAnne Effect?

Take care. Good luck and God bless you with wisdom, Brett

-- Brett (savvydad@aol.com), March 01, 1999.

I agree with much of what Brett says, but I refuse to believe that it is too late. It might be too late to "bullet-proof" your community against total infrastructure meltdown, but every extra day of food and water you can convince/force/shame your neighbors into saving will make your community that much more resilient.

I've understood this issue for two or three years, but I hoped the remediation reports would be more persuasive than they have been, so I didn't start preparing until Jan 1. It has taken me two months of work to do what I thought reasonable in the way of prepping.

If I can do it in 2 months, then I know a lot can be done in 9 months. (I don't even count December, because by then you're just going to be depriving some other American of his Dinty Moore.)

Knowing what I know now, I could have someone pretty well-stocked within one month, but I will admit it's going to get tougher and tougher as time goes on (at least to get free buckets and stuff.)

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 01, 1999.

Bob,

I agree when you said,

"Load shifting will not work and should be removed from emergency services planning groups thinking. My view is that in every emergency services locality across the globe should instigate discussions about how to carry out effective communication between groups and between emergency services and the public"

I also agree that the FEMA document is a good place to start. Don't know if your emergency service groups known anything about our FEMA, or if you have an equivalent, but they may listen to what others are doing.

Another possible source of something to get them started would be the series of articles on emergency preparation by Lanza, on the Westergaard site. He's head of (I believe) Dade County, FL (think Miami) emergency preparedness. He's done some good work in this area.

I would think you would have less of a load sharing problem than we would, since you had a fairly rural environment when I visited your country (1973), and certainly the South Island terrain doesn't lend itself to megacities.

You're right, though that everyone has to be on the same page -- all emergency service organizations trying to get ready. Usually that takes a strong federal approach. As you can see from the other posts, our federal people (FEMA) aren't really doing things as well as they should (who could have guessed?)

-- De (dealton@concentyric.net), March 01, 1999.

Brett and Puddintame --- You be both right, I reckon. There are lots of things that are already almost impossible to get (Aladdin's, good generators, non-hybrid seeds, good wood stoves, etc). There are other wise actions that are now almost foreclosed (move rural).

However, yes, there are many, many aspects of preparation that can be pursued throughout this year, not to mention building into the culture realistic expectations of what may/will happen so people aren't stunned when it does. That alone will save lives and is a kind of national "preparation".

What we don't know for sure is how elastic JIT will be to meet exploding demand for prep-style supplies as the year goes on. It's elastic but not indefinitely so (see my list above).

55 gallons of water does beat none. And so it goes ....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 01, 1999.

Rob, your local emergency folks may already belong to this organization. Their newsletter on Y2K is terrific, and the message may have more weight coming from IAEM.

Of course, the emergency manager in my town looked about as interested as a flounder when I told him a few months back. *sigh* - -try try again...

SPECIAL Y2K BULLETIN

The Year 2000: A Special Issue of the IAEM Bulletin.

The International Association of Emergency Managers can now offer you an exciting Y2K resource. The 24-page January issue of the IAEM Bulletin "special focus on Y2K" has been in such great demand that we are planning a massive reprinting.

IAEM Y2K Newsletter (print out the PDF)

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), March 01, 1999.

Hi Folks,

The key issue is the 'loadshifting' one related to self reliance.

Loadshifting is part of the community level problem where Emergency services people shift responsibility to someone else.

The self reliance problem is a matter of taking a position with respect to 'fate'. I know this is probably a cultural thing, but as someone has rightly said only when a whole community of individuals is standing self reliant can the community be self reliant.

I liked the earlier post detailing the Bag of Basics.

I note it doesn't have essential documents and photos on the list.

Printed the IAEM Bulletin. Didn't see much about interdependencies nor how they might be addressed.

Direct emails will be acknowledged..

-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), March 01, 1999.

I would like to remind everyone, that FEMA has the key to turn OFF the Constitution under the right conditions. y2k is one of them!

-- Scotty (BLehman202@aol.com), March 01, 1999.

GOD I wish the following were untrue. I wish it were untrue in more places than it is true.

The TYPICAL Emergency Service Team (Police, Fire, EMS (if 3rd Service) relies on each other and can't talk to each other unless there is someone from each entity present together somewhere for liaison. In locallities where this is untrue (Cleveland happens to be almost there) the solution is something called Trunked 800mhz Communications, which allows the entities to share about 8 ( for argument purposes) frequencies, all controlled by a computer, where you key the mike, and the computer decides who gets to be turned on to hear you, and then what frequency you will talk to them on. The frequency can change each time you key the mike. The other agencies use the same frequencies and the computer takes care of channel contention. (Works about as well as multi-location distributed VSAM. . . . LOL OUCH).

WHen we need to go outside of the border of the municipality, the communications nightmare finally starts to get bad. No 2 municipalities share the same BAND much less a few frequencies. There are some "semi-official" inter-agency frequencies ( I can think of 2 for the WHOLE NORTHERN OHIO area).

To make matters even more fun, if you DO get two municipalities to talk to each other and mutual aid (here in and around the city), there is no guarantee that the fire equipment will go together, or that YOUR guys can operate the stuff the OTHER GUYS brought, assuming of course that you each have even SEEN the equipment before.

In EMS, it's a bit less troublesome, but occasionally you get squads with different protocols and therefore different drugs on board, so when you go to use your haldol, the guy from the squad you are on loks at you like you are NUTZ and for god's sake don't even think of using any cardiac meds that are not absolute Class I's, not even in the third rounds!!! (You nursies will understand, the rest of you just gotta trust me it's a BIG PROBLEM trying to mesh different protocols!!! Particularly when the Doc's involved consider each other "F#N#G QUACKS"!!!)

Normal mutual aid agreements are going to be so unworkable, and it's going to end up in the laps of the few HAMS who are willing to stick their necks out and do the liaison stuff between agencies and municipalities. I participated in the last full blown drill for Perry, out in Geauga County last year. When we started to discuss the communications end of it, we ended up looking at the stuff that First Energy had bought, decided it would work for the near areas, but when you look at the need to communicate from the affected area to Cleveland, Coulmbus (OH State Cap for the geographically challenged); and Washington, DC It is going to be up to HAMS. (PS In a true emergency of that nature, kiss the cell phones goodby, the networks and the lucky agencies will tie htem all up as soon as they can.)

Chuck, GOTTA get a petromax to go with the Coleman's, and upgrade the HAM Shack this year in Dayton.

-- Chuck, night driver (rienzoo@en.com), March 02, 1999.

Chuck, yep, you're absolutely right, it's the HAMS who'll be the communications system in a large emergency. The Pacific NorthWest has already figured that one out, due to the subduction zone earthquake propensity. All the fire stations are already set up with HAM stations, and every quadrant has operators identified and working together in pre-drills. Along comes Y2K ... motivation to tie up the loose ends.

Haldol? Hate that stuff. Makes pts really weird, and as they come off it they invariably get Sundowners. Avoid if at all possible! Of course, the EMT doesn't have to deal with the long-term repercussions. It's us home caregivers that get stuck with the aftereffects ;-(

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), March 02, 1999.

"The Pacific NorthWest has already figured that one out, due to the subduction zone earthquake propensity. All the fire stations are already set up with HAM stations, and every quadrant has operators identified and working together in pre-drills." - Leska

Leska,

I don't know where you got this information, but, sadly, it doesn't apply to southern Oregon, centered around the Rogue Valley. I have been involved in ARES/RACES in two counties here since 1995, and I know that ARES/RACES has been a presence, although sometimes hardly known, for longer than that.

Unfortunately, they have a regrettable tendency to allow politics and personality differences to get in the way of their mission as emergency communicators. This can, and has, adversely affected their position with the local ESOs.

I have also been in contact with a ham that relocated to NW Oregon that participated in emergency comm during the 1989 San Francisco earthquake recovery. His experiences then and there parallel mine in the last two years. He says that he has since gained experience with ARES/RACES response in his area of NW Oregon. No significant changes from his California experiences.

I'm not saying that all ARES/RACES groups have organizational or disciplinary problems, but, WADR, it's a good idea to check the situation out before you make a statement about an area that doesn't apply to it.

LP

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), March 04, 1999.

LP, have your NW friend eMail us. My information comes from regularly going to Fire Dept stations, and from HAM reports at NET/CERT meetings. Exactly one week ago the regional director of emergency services assured us that all fire stations had their HAM equipment set up, operational, and had conducted drills, and will be participating in all drills throughout 1999. If this is not correct I will have this investigated immediately. The Director and others are presently attending Anti-Terrorist/Y2K FEMA training in MD, but are scheduled to meet with us upon their return. We have seen the HAM set-ups physically with our own eyes.

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx x

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), March 05, 1999.

Leska,

You are laboring under a misconception. My post addressed ARES/RACES activity here in _southern_ Oregon. ARES/RACES is not FEMA, nor is FEMA ARES/RACES. FEMA is a federal program, funded by taxpayer money. Many of its key employees are paid for what they do, especially those in leadership, instructive, and administrative positions.

ARES/RACES is funded by the hams themselves, and from any funds contributed from the public they serve. No one involved in ARES/RACES receives any compensation for what they do. They are forbidden by law to accept any compensation from anyone for the work they do, but they do it, anyway. They provide their own training materials, their own instructors, their own leadership, and especially their equipment, all at their own expense. ARES/RACES members everywhere are volunteers in the truest sense of the word, and have been intimately involved in emergency response efforts long before FEMA was created.

ARES/RACES was a long established activity here in southern Oregon before the 1993 quakes (which, as you may know, were epicentered less than 100 miles from us), and, regardless of its difficulties, will be here for some time to come.

I was careful to explicitly mention southern Oregon to distinguish it from Portland. We are also part of the Pacific Northwest, and we have our own programs, activities, and approaches to life's little challenges. We do not need, nor do we ask for, "guidance" from Portland.

I will explain in detail in a private email. I have taken up too much forum space as it is.

LP

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), March 08, 1999.

I am an experienced Australian ham radio operator. Before I moved from New South Wales state (Sydney) to Queensland state, I used to regularly take part in WICEN exercises, the Aussie equivalent of ARES/RACES. (WICEN stands for Wireless Institute Civil Emergency Network). Upon moving up here, I recently contacted the local controller for our State Emergency Services (the guys who assist the police with rescues, flood boats etc). When I mentioned Y2K to the town controller, he rolled his eyes and said, "I am trying not to think about that". I had planned on offering my services as an experienced comms specialist, but I changed my mind on the spot. Instead I have thrown in with the local Bush Fire Brigade. If that's the level of the guys some will have to rely on for help... God help us all!

-- David Harvey (vk2dmh@hotmail.com), March 08, 1999.