http://x3.dejanews.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=395617101&CONTEXT=920146846.854982658&hitnum=31 megadeath was: Survey 3Q-1998 Author: cory hamasaki Date: 1998/09/28 Forum: comp.software.year-2000

I discussed mass death for an hour this weekend with an expert in infectious disease... one of my hobbies is morbidity and mortality. The mega-death scenario isn't driven by food, war, freezing, it's driven by sanitation, lack of clean water, a breakdown in the societal mechanisms that identify, cure, or contain infectious disease.

If the breakdown occurs and it takes out the disease control systems, these range from the CDC to your local health department, primary care givers, hospitals, pharmacies, sewage treatment facilities, etc., we end up with a situation that's never happened before, extremely high populations in close proximity and no support mechanisms.

When the Spanish Lady Flu swept the world after WWI, it killed tens of millions, more; in some places, 80-90 percent of the local population died in *days* of exposure.

I know most of you think the Flu is a joke disease, well, it's not. It can be mega-death and it happens so fast that you'll be carried away before the week is out.

And the Flu isn't the only spectre stalking us cloaked by Y2K, there's lots of diseases waiting for their chance, the list is long. In some cases, the vector is poorly understood.

This is a systems problem, staphylococcus aureus, Rickettsia Prowazekii, R. quintana... cholera, hepititis, salmonella, enteritis... they're all out there, held at bay by complex systems. Some of these systems will fail.

Systems... the Flu sweeps out of China, large population, poor sanitation, pigs and geese and people in close proximity.

But what do I know... I've called the health department on restaurants that 'do it wrong'.

Oh yeah, I'm not predicting a dying caused by disease... I'm reminding people what the term "pandemic" refers to and giving them another piece of information to factor into their plans.

cory hamasaki 460 days, 11,040 hours.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), February 27, 1999

Answers

General Vladimir Yalunin, warden-in-chief of the Russian penal system, speaking in NYC recently commenting on Russian prison problems in Feb 15, 1999 New Yorker Magazine: Talk of the Town: Comments.

Due to overcrowding and filth, scarce medical care, and poor nutrition the entire prison population of nearly a million are at risk from multi-drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis. Without adequate medical care these strains easily become epidemic within the larger community. The outbreak in NY in the early 90's cost $1B to control 2000 cases. 75% of the estimated 100k Russian cases are in prisons.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), February 27, 1999.

Shouldn't we all get a flu shot next fall, or can we trust the vaccines? Hmmmmm. . . What other shots might we request from our physicians. I have a physical coming up. Comments?

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), February 27, 1999.

Vaccines should be OK this year.

Don't know about next year, though. I don't expect bad vaccine products produced, but like anything else, there could be shortages if TSHTF.

-- insider (insider@trustus.gov), February 27, 1999.

I don't know of any GOOD vaccines produced.

I've read a lot about vaccines, and I seriously doubt their efficacy in preventing disease. Improved public health and personal hygiene are responsible for the lack of the old terrors. Additionally, vaccines are a wonderful method of introducing other diseases into unexpecting populations... diseases such as AIDS, which according to some sources was introduced into Africa by the World Health Organization in 1977, under the guise of smallpox inoculations. Later, advertisements appeared in New York, San Francisco and other American cities in 1979, specifically asking for promiscious homosexual men to take part in the trials of the then-new hepatitis-B vaccine.

Remember the Swine Flu epidemic, or should I say NON-epidemic? Any idea how many elderly people died as a result of receiving the inoculations for that one? Lots... research it yourself, the facts will shock you.

There is evidence that the DPT shots given to infants may be the primary cause of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS).

I have met quite a few people who got polio from taking the polio vaccine. Several had filed claims with the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, which was established to cover lawsuits arising from injuries due to vaccinations. Very few Americans know of the existence of this Federal government program, which levies a tax of as much as 25% on all vaccines to help offset claims, and was created as a buffer for the drug companies.

If you'd like more information on this subject, look for the book "Murder By Injection", by Eustace Mullins, or simply do a web search with the keywords 'vaccine' 'dangerous' 'safety'... it should point you in the right direction, as there are many sites with this information out there. What you choose to do is up to you, but as for me and my family, we will have absolutely nothing to do with any so-called vaccines.

-- noshots (here@my.home), February 27, 1999.

I'm again nostalgic:

" The guard gave me directions to the office. I went in and filled out an employment form. Again I was required to supply my health history. Now I was sure that I would not get a job here. If the Army wouldn't take me because of the illnesses I had, why should anybody else hire me? Ma had sent me my health history which I had requested and I dutifully recorded everything on the employment form: whooping cough, measles, diphtheria, 'Rotsucht', and mumps. And of course the chronic middle ear infection and long-term exposure to tuberculosis. Maybe I even had had tuberculosis for the doctors who had looked at my lungs with a fluoroscope had always reacted with an enthusiastic good-grief-like, oh-shit-like comment. Why would anyone hire a potential corpse? Even though I worried, I did get hired. "

-- Not Again! (seenit@ww2.com), February 27, 1999.

Cory remarks that given the hygiene (or lack thereof) problems of Y2K and ensuing disease, "we end up with a situation that's never happened before, extremely high populations in close proximity and no support mechanisms." Actually, a sitation like that HAS happened before. One of them is the Black Death (bubonic plague), which hit London and its surrounding villages in 1665. The plague wiped out 25% of the city but living in or fleeing further out in the country didn't always work. Just about everyone who lives in the Midlands of England knows the following story:

http://www.u-net.com/wbhouse/pdp/plague.htm

Eyam~the Plague Village

The Great Plague of 1665 is thought to have wiped out nearly a quarter of the population of London, but nowhere did it hit harder than the small Peakland village of Eyam.

In the autumn of 1665, a box of cloth from plague-hit London was delivered to a tailor who lodged with the widow Mary Cooper in a cottage near the church. It was the start of a twelve-month epidemic which swept through the village and killed 267 from 76 families - leaving perhaps only one in four of the total population alive.

But the real story of Eyams `visitation by the plague is not just one of a tragic loss of life. For the villagers, led by their young Rector, William Mompesson, and his nonconformist predecessor, Thomas Stanley, were determined to try to halt the deadly spread of infection to the surrounding villages. They instituted a self-imposed quarantine on the village, and grimly waited it out as the infection took its deadly course.

There are touching reminders of this noble act of self-sacrifice in and around the village even today, in the shape of family graves in the fields and memorials in the church. And the epic stand by the villagers is still celebrated each year in a special commemoration service, linked with well-dressings.

END CUT AND PASTE

Of course, the plague affected other locales in other countries and, globally, the worst outbreak was in 13-something. However, the 1665 outbreak is the best documented and made even more vivid by Daniel Defoe's Journal of the Plague Year.

-- Historical Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 27, 1999.

FWIW: The European plague was transmitted primarily by the bite of fleas. Fleas were transported mainly by rats. Rats were in overabundance due to a lack of cats. Cats were in short supply because the Church considered them to be agents of the Devil, which resulted in their lack of popularity and overall demise at the hands of the overly-pious.

Historian Barbara Tuchman has a chapter in her book, "A Distant Mirror", devoted to the Black Death - interesting reading.

-- scooter (nota@catlover.eitherbut...), February 27, 1999.

Vaccines are not perfect. If you are given a vaccine, you have a 60- 80% chance of actually being made immune to what you are being vaccinated against. Stated otherwise, vaccines are not 100% reliable/effective. Also, like any medication, they have side- effects. However, the benefits outweigh the risks. I work with this stuff daily, and would not hesitate to vaccine my kids.

-- insider (insider@trustus.gov), February 27, 1999.

Hi Scooter,

Current thinking is that the plague was transmitted both by rat fleas AND human contact. In the 17th c. outbreak, cats and dogs were exterminated because it was thought they were carriers of the plague, thus people effectively made the plague worse. I should have added that the legendary London cloth was damp when it arrived in Eyam and was dried in front of the tailor's hearth; the plague germs were in the steam. Your theory that cats were killed because the Church considered them agents of the devil rings true, so perhaps that was an additional factor in the lack of natural controls. (Nowadays in England, a black cat crossing one's path is considered extremely lucky and brides are given black velvet cat silhouettes for good luck.)

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 27, 1999.

The flu vaccines are tailored for the particular strain or strains that are currently going around. This year's vaccine will not necessarily work on next year's flu strain. The 1918 epidemic involved a really deadly virus strain, they're still trying to find out what made it that way. Needless to say, if the system breaks or goes seriously lame, vaccine production facilities will be hamstrung too.

Personally I think my immune system is my own responsibility. We have much more input into the workings of our body than is commonly thought to exist.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), February 28, 1999.

Interesting that this thread commentary has been dominated by the pros and cons of vaccination. Which really has nothing to do with the thread. Several of those diseases listed in Cory's post and the TB strains are not vaccinatable.

Is this another one of those areas where people just will not talk about? Similar to the reaction to the 25% of everyone is going to die thread?

What is it? These diseases are major potentialities in all our lives and no one even brings up ways in which we might be able to prepare. Be it isolation, quarantening, dietary suppliments, face masks, etc. No one talks about whether or not certain diseases are transmissable from a dead body, no one mentions that some diseases are transmissable on in narrow windows of time, no one mentions anything about prevention or the prep necessary to instigate prevention if a local outbreak happens. No one talks about the preparation necessary if large number of the plague dead need to be moved from their homes, or streets, or hospitals, etc. - what do we do with large numbers of dead bodies? If we are in that state, chances are that we will not have the facilities to bury, nor is burning are real option - What Do We Do? What do you do if a spouse or parent doesn't allow the contagious dead to be removed? What do you do if the Spouse or parent is convinced that the body is still alive and is freaked out that you are talking away as dead someone they know is still alive and they hope might get well?

Is this such a hot subject over which people feel powerless that it is trivialized into vaccination pros and cons? This isn't the Fall Cold and Flu season so take a Sucret or a TheraFlu scenario that is being talked about. This is potentially a life and death situation that probably all of us will be involved in and it will probably play out for several years. Now is the time to talk about this stuff, not later.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), February 28, 1999.

Mitch,

With this as with some of teh other difficult subjects, we as human beings have to sort of back into the discussion. It has to do with the comfort zone we all live in, and teh shape of our own personal box. While I as a paramedic may be able to discuss without too many shudders the handling of stiffs, old floaters, etc.; I have difficulties with some other subjects that others take for granted.

Chuck

PS Continued innoculation in conversation will help all of us get our boxes right-sized.

-- Chuck, night driver (rienzoo@en.com), February 28, 1999.

The Four Horseman are always ready to ride.......

One of them, of course is disease. And hungry, cold, shelterless people are much less resistent to disease than well fed, warm people. Until the advent of antibiotics, most doctors were good for birthing babies and setting bones, because there was nothing but supportive measures they could do for infectous disease......

This posting rings true, because most people will not (or cannot) take the time to boil water, to cook food properly, to maintain sanitation, under disaster situations.

If this goes down to an 8-10, yes, disease will kill many, probably more than hunger or cold. Remember, though, in the end, all deaths can be attributed to heart failure......

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), February 28, 1999.

I ran across an account of Hurricane Hugo recently that fits here. One part was on sanitation needs, which must of us know about. But, it also covered insects and rodents...something many of us haven't taken into account.

Here's a brief excerpt:

http://members.aol.com/keninga/comforts.htm

[snip]

WASTE DISPOSAL AND SANITATION

Many septic systems were flooded from the high water levels or were damaged by falling trees. Sewage overflowed into city streets because of flood-damaged sewers. Toilets could not flush and were backed up due to broken sewer lines. Even toilet paper became in short supply. As an emergency measure, lime was issued for spreading on the ground to kill germs; and later, in populated areas, portable toilets were set up on the streets to lessen some of the sanitation hazards.

To add to the health danger, there were no garbage pickups.

INSECT AND RODENT INFESTATION

The local roach population boomed. Even "clean" motels incurred roach infestation, and roach bait and sprays were soon sold out. The debris, garbage, and decomposing food offered a haven, also, for rats and other rodents. Insects became a severe problem. Most of the prevailing homes had lost their window screens to the winds and mosquitoes were thick when the warm nights made it necessary to open the windows. In some areas, the mosquitos were like a fog, but repellents were not available.

[snip]

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 01, 1999.

A Journal of the Plague Year by Daniel Defoe

- etext courtesy of Project Gutenburg -

-- Max Dixon (Ogden, Utah USA) (Max.Dixon@gte.net), March 01, 1999.

Max, many thanks for that link. I wrote a term paper on the book some years ago and it made a great impresison on me. Defoe wasn't an eye-witness--or if he was, he was a very small child. Even so, tje book reads like a first-hand account and there is little, if any, embroidery. Defoe's information came from older relatives and he wove their accounts with available statistics to make a grim and compelling tale. The book is short and the zip file shouldn't be too much of a problem.

Discovery Online has an elaborate site for information and visuals relating to the devastating 14th century outbreak of the Black Death at

http://www.discovery.com/stories/history/blackdeath/blackdeath.html

People should not make the mistake of thinking bubonic plague is an ancient and extinct disease. Cases still occur in people who live or visit a certain area of the Rocky Mountains. I expect there are a few more areas in the world where the disease still survives.

The Discovery site offers links to articles about various other diseases too. I forgot to see if scarlet fever was listed--had it not been for good medical care I would have died of that disease when I was six years old. It's still around as well. Oh--flashback--a Victorian public restroom, beautifully tiled all over with one large highly decorative tile begging people not to spit so as to avoid the spread of consumption. (Hitchin marketplace, Hertfordshire.) They still had TB sanatoriums when I was a kid.

Cory's right--disease is a terrible possibility.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), March 01, 1999.

There are a lot of diseases which could overwhelm us even now, and several books and movies about how they do. For example, bubonic plague been of a type carried in cough droplets. As I understand that type is a faster, deadlier type than the usual; and is likely the type that infected Eyam. Another worry is the possibility of Ebola being transmitted in that way. There was an epidemic of Ebola-type illness in a monkey population which was transmitted through the air. Fortunately, no humans caught it.

So what can we do to prevent a massive plague from taking us or our loved ones? Use good hygiene and ensure that your diet is as good as possible, read up on symptoms of various diseases and how to deal with them, and pray.

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), March 01, 1999.

On the news last night, they said there is a strain of antibiotic resistant strepcocus (strep-throat) that killed 5 people, I can't recall the state exactly, I think it was Ohio. Victims ranged in age between 18 and senior citizens. Strep is extremely contagious.

To come back to the flu, it need not be the especially virulent strain of 1918 to kill millions of people. Without vaccines, asthmatics and old people develop pneumonia easily, and that can kill them quickly. Especially those with asthma, they go into "status asthmaticus", caused by inflamation of lungs and they shut down if not treated quickly. To reverse this, if the person is brought to the hospital on time, agressive treatment of intravenous steroids, theophyline and antibiotics are needed, as well as oxygen therapy.

There are something like 16 million asthmatics in the U.S., that's not counting older poeple with amphesema. Not getting a flu shot if you have these conditions is asking for trouble, even suicidal in the face of y2K.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), March 01, 1999.

ABCNews.com had a recent article on the origins of the 1918 flu.

more.abcnews.go.com/sections/living/DailyNews/flu990215.html

FYI...

-- Sharon (sking@drought-ridden.com), March 01, 1999.

My Soul Is Marching On

By Sri Sri Paramahansa Yoganandaji

The shinging stars are sunk in darkness deep,
The weary sun is dead at night,
The moon's soft smile doth fade anon;
But still my soul is marching on!

The grinding wheel of time hath crushed
Full many a life of moon and star,
And many a brightly smiling morn;
But still my soul is marching on!

The flowers bloomed, then hid in gloom,
The bounty of the trees did cease;
Colossal men have come and gone,
But still my soul is marching on!

The aeons one by one are flying,
My arrows one by one are gone;
Dimly, slowly, life is fading,
But still my soul is marching on!

Darkness, death, and failures vied;
To block my path they fiercely tried.
My fight with jealous Nature's strong,
But still my soul is marching on!

---------------------------------------------

Jai Guru, Jai Shiva, Ki Jai!

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), March 01, 1999.

If you really want to have an excellent tool to combat all viruses, bacteria, microbes and yes even the quick killing pathogens like anthrax etc. then do a search on electro-medicine OR blood electrification and read. There is an alternative to vaccination and surprise! it is not toxic or detrimental to the body! Contra-indications? Individuals wearing pacemakers.

http://doctorme.com/

-- Bumble Bee (bumble@icanect.net), March 01, 1999.

As Gold It says, we do get plague out here in CO. Every so often there's a story in the paper about an animal found with plague (usually a prarie dog). OTOH, I've seen cockroachs exacly twice in the 30 years I've been out here...

PT

-- Paul Theory (ItchinToScr@ch.com), March 03, 1999.