Just some thoughts regarding the Forum Poll Results

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

First, thanks to everyone who responded, and especially to Kevin, who took the time to collect the data and post the results towards the end of the Forum Poll thread itself. There was more interest in this than I would have thought, with a thread spawned regarding the evident 'disconnect' between our responses and J.Q. Public's take: a cool observation and subsequent thread discussion. I think there are other observations that can be made.

Balance. I found it interesting that some points were recurring ones (even cross thread). More than one poster observed that there was a lack of "pollyanna" votes -(possibly due to the current number of flame retardant suits still at the cleaners?) So one thought - question really - is how much did this skew the results, assuming those that would have posted low numbers refrained from providing their response?

There was also a recurring confirmation of Gayla's valid observation regarding how the impact can differ based on our location in the world.

Another recurring point was the idea of the slippery slope - that we can easily slide from somewhere in the middle of the scale to a 10. I found this interesting since the average response of 8 puts us near the brink of TEOTWAWKI, with perhaps too easy a push. It was this that I found the most interesting because it made me ask 'So, where does that leave us?' My answer: At the threshold to The Beginning of the World as we Build it (TBOTWAWBI). It is not too early to talk about beginnings. It is not too early for that even without Y2K - given the number and severity of other non-Y2K challenges that we face. My point here is that there are three phases that we each have to be prepared for. First, surviving until Y2K hits. Second, surviving through the Y2K failures and transition period. Third, surviving in TBOTWAWBI. If we fail to survive any of these three, then we fail to survive.

Ask yourself how much bandwidth has been expended on each of these three phases, and, more importantly, how much thought and preparation has been given to each phase - both by you individually and the forum collectively. Balance. Do we have it?

-- Rob Michaels (sonfodust@net.com), February 10, 1999

Answers

"So one thought - question really - is how much did this skew the results..."

This is extremely significant. If only gloom-n-doomers (myself included) vote, the average will be quite high.

"First, surviving until Y2K hits. Second, surviving through the Y2K failures and transition period. Third, surviving in TBOTWAWBI. If we fail to survive any of these three, then we fail to survive. "

If the gloom-n-doomers are right, and Y2K is "Big - REALLY Big", I think our TBOTWAWBI options will be determined mostly by what wars occur. One nuke, biological or chemical attack can ruin your whole day.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@anonymous.com), February 10, 1999.


Rob,

I believe most picked their "number" based on the descriptions of each , taking them at face value. Personally, I would have placed recession around a 2 or 3, and depression at about a 5 instead of 8. In my view, the average could easily be reduced by 2-3 points, putting it at about 5-6.

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), February 10, 1999.


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