I thought it would be good to see where folks are these days on the scale. Besides posting the numerical value, consider also posting the 'why' - especially if you have moved up or down. Below is the WDCY2K scale and a couple of notes from the site: http://wdcy2k.org/survey for your reference. (Yes, I know it's not perfect, that there are other scales, etc., but for this thread I think it can serve to give us some idea of where we are and if people are moving up, down, etc.)

0 - No real impact

1 - Local impact for some enterprises

2 - Significant impact for many enterprises

3 - Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies

4 - Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents

5 - Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks

6 - Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies

7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions

8 - Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law

9 - Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread social disruptions and martial law

10 - Collapse of U.S. government; possible famine

NOTE: "social incidents" and "disruptions" have to do with demonstrations, work stoppages, strikes, organized vandalism, looting, and riots

NOTE: "supply/infrastructure problems" have to do with food shortages, fuel/heating oil shortages, disruptions in public utilities (power, gas, telecom), disruptions in transportation (airlines, trucking), and so on.

My two Cents: I have been 'stuck' somewhere between 8 and 9 since last summer, though when I 'got it' last Spring I started at 5. I think that electricity is a big key, and as we get closer I will be using this industry as a primary indicator of if I should change one way or the other. Regardless of this, I am preparing to the maximum extent that I can - prudence you know. Based on the latest info, I am leaning more towards 9, waiting to see what happens with the nukes in July to cite just one example.

So, how about you?

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), February 08, 1999

Answers

On this scale, I would need to extrapolate, since the worst case end is really too optimistic. So, extrapolating, I would rank myself at 15, but for statistical purposes, I guess 10 will have to do.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), February 08, 1999.

Wow! I thought I was a 4, but looking at "the scale", I have to go with 8! I fully expect an economic meltdown, and expect "inner- cities" (using a nice PC buzzword for all you Clinton supporters out there) to get PRETTY ugly.

I just hope martial-law keeps it localized ... and war doesn't break out.

I thought 10 was TEOTWAWKI, Mad Maxx style.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@anonymous.com), February 08, 1999.

I'm sorry , but can I use 'exponents'?

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), February 08, 1999.

Using this scale, I'd say a 6 is my "best-case" scenario.

8 seems about right, but that may be too optimistic. I keep waiting for verifiably good news. While there is some, it doesn't seem like nearly enough. But the PR spin seems to be persuading many into a false sense of security.

If only I could believe the spin and go back to my peaceful pre- awareness slumber.

-- Steve Hartsman (hartsman@ticon.net), February 08, 1999.

I think we are going to have a mix of 6 to 10 depending upon where you live. I don't expect to see martial law out on the plains of Wyoming, for instance. Where you live, how you are prepared, physically and emotionally, to cope will spell out the scenario for you and your neighbors. Some of us have lived y2k for parts of ouf life times and the loss of infrastructure is no big thing except as to how it relates to where you live and the stableness of your neighbors. If you are used to heating and cooking with wood, killing an elk or caribou for meat, using kerosene lamps, growing your own veggies and buying only things like salt, sugar, whole grains, etc its no big deal........as long as the rest of the world leaves you alone. I am fine....I worry about the rest of you. Anyway, you didn't ask for a lecture. If I have to guess at one scenario I will say 8.

-- Taz Richardson (Tassie@aol.com), February 08, 1999.

Well, I was at 12 in the last poll and now I would say 10, maybe not on 1/1/00 but eventually. See? I'm more optimistic! (or more prepared)

-- Sue (deco100@aol.com), February 08, 1999.

I guess I'm somewhere between an 8 and a 10, though I think if we get to an 8 we'll go straight to and through 10. Depression, infrastructure crippled and martial law evolve quickly to government collapse. I suppose the real measure of what we think will happen equals the level of preparedness of each of us. I'm preparing for a 10.

-- Vic (Roadrunner@compliant.com), February 08, 1999.

Paul: LOL. For you, yes. Or in lieu of exponents, perhaps we can at least add the viable categories of TEOTWAWKI, TEOTW, TOAST, and BURNT TOAST. Keep the heat on, you are terrific.

Steve: If you go back to sleep you may never wake up, so please don't.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), February 08, 1999.

Preparedness level current: 4-5

Expectation : 5-7/7.5

If we get to 7.75 then the slide to 10 is extremely easy and needs not much of a push

CR, trying to get the prep to agree with the expectations

got posthole diggers?

-- Chuck, night driver (rienzoo@en.com), February 08, 1999.

An 8 --

except

if we really have a crippled infrastructure things will go to 10^2 (that's ten, squared.......I like Paul's exponential notation.)

I see a depression, market collapse, and local martial law as a minimum.

-- De (dealton@concentricx.net), February 08, 1999.

I'm easily at an 8. I've been looking at the electrice industry for months, perhaps to the exclusion of other factors. During January, when I got it regarding the oil, natural gas, and chemicals industries, I concluded the supply chain is history. As others above have mentioned, from 8 it's an easy dive into 10.

Got seeds? Got horses?

-- David Waldrip (dwaldrip@aol.com), February 08, 1999.

On that scale I'm an 8 as most likely, tipping easily to 10+

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), February 08, 1999.

I vary between 7 and 9 depending on the news of the day. Most days I am upwards of 8.5 to 9. We are preparing for 10 as much as possible, knowing we will never get all the way there.

-- Art Welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), February 08, 1999.

Think global! If we were just talking about the US, I might be lower. Definitely a 9 on this scale with parts of 10 added in. (famine in many parts of the world) But, I don't expect to see it all on January 1, 2000. It will take several months to be at its worst.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), February 08, 1999.

From 8-10.

-- BBrown (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), February 08, 1999.

Sir Paul of the oft toasted one,

I thought we had agreed these were expontial grades - like the Ritcher (-1 sp) and similar measures. The scale between each unit TBDBU, but either base 10 or base e. Like 2?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), February 08, 1999.

8...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 08, 1999.

I'm trying to prepare for a "10", but our problem is we're not clever enough to actually do "10" type preparation. I hope to get a new idea every day [week] if I'm lucky. For me it does'nt matter how bad it is on a scale, I just wish my foresight was a "10" so I could plan accordingly.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), February 08, 1999.

On this scale, I would say an 8-10. But I'm confused, how do you have bank runs and only a minor recession? Also, I think if it gets to 10 we are apt to slide into Infomagic space :-(

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), February 08, 1999.

I was a 3 when I started reading this forum(month or so ago)I'm now 6-7.The bad news out weights the good news by leaps and bounds. My other half just started to read your forum this week--hes a 3 for now.

-- maji (abc@prepared.com), February 08, 1999.

On this scale I guess I'm somewhere between 8-10.

That isn't to say I expect things to become that bad but that I am only able to visualize up to about a 10. Beyond that is just too scary. I do believe it will take some time to 'grow' into that 8-10 range. Perhaps a full year or two.

I think we'll start at about a 5 and then progress over time to 10 and beyond.

Mike =================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), February 08, 1999.

At least 6, even without Y2k. 8 very likely. 9+, depends on who, what, where, when, how, and why.

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), February 08, 1999.

I am a 6 on this scale, but feel its prudent to prepare for a 10. After all if I'm prepaired for a 10 to be self sufficient my family lives to natural death. If I prepair for a six and I'm wrong, and its a total collapse of the system then I am responsible for the distruction of my wife and children. So I prepare for the worst and hope for the best as any responsible person would do.

Mike

-- flierdude (mkessler0101@sprynet.com), February 08, 1999.

As a relative newbie (GI about a month ago) my best guess is a 6 - but concur that higher is a possibility.

-- Online2Much (gettingit@last.com), February 08, 1999.

Expect it to degenerate to 6 to 7.5 by springtime or early summer of 2000. If a fuel shortage (particularly foreign oil) takes down some or all of the grid, it will be 8 or 9. (I think coal, hydro and nukes have a shot of straightening out within a few months.) Trying to prepare for at least a 6, but the idea of emptying out my 401k is still paralyzing (I'm a gutless boomer), and my service-economy skills aren't very marketable if I get laid off. (I'm a great gardener, but I don't think I have the physical stamina to support myself that way.) I think almost all other countries will go to 8 to 10 pretty quickly.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), February 08, 1999.

Robert, Good Sir, you forgot to 'vote'! Please do, I value your opinion.

Nathan, for you:

Y2K may be a 10,

It would be great to know just when,

Where, what, why and how,

Is all we need to know for now,

Prepare to maximum extent 'till then.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), February 08, 1999.

Hoping for a 5, expecting a 7-8, fearing a 10+.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), February 08, 1999.

As of today: 7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruption--make that national supply/infrastructure problems, widespread social disruption and at least local martial law. 7.5?

If the information we get doesn't improve or gets worse, then of course I'm anywhere from 8-10.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 08, 1999.

With or without y2k there is a depression in the offing. I don't think we can really tell at this point how serious things will get. For now I will chose an 8 on the Richter scale. By this summer there should be enough evidence available to get a really good handle on it.

Ray

PS Flint, what's your prognostication?

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), February 08, 1999.

90% chance of a "3" 50% chance of a "5" 10% chance of a "9"

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 08, 1999.

12.4

E.

-- E. Coli (nunayo@beeswax.com), February 08, 1999.

I say an eight. Massive depression, collapse of infrastructure, civil disruptions in some places.

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), February 08, 1999.

I'm sitting at an 8.5 - 9 just now.

That is just the old "gut feeling". I vary from here to a 7 depending on the news as I perceive it to be. Damn little 7 of late and it is getting a bit late in the game now. I fully expect that we will get about 80 - 85% of the mission critical errors corrected in time. To the extent that we don't fix the rest of the mission critical things we will have problems.

I can't see how it could be less than a 6 without a miracle of the prime magnitude.

The slippery slope that we are walking along can have it's angle of repose shifted by any of the larger failure events, and from there it is a quick slide to beyond the 10 and into Infomagic.

I don't quite know how to physically prepare for the end of the world, so I am trying to prepare for the 10 and hoping that the "polly" folks are right after all. I really wish that they could be.

S.O.B.

-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), February 08, 1999.

I'm going to say 5-7 most places, 7-9 for the big urban areas, 8-10 for most of the rest of the world. I really think it depends on the community.

-- Annie O'Dea (tarotmaid@yahoo.com), February 08, 1999.

I was hoping for an 8 or 9 but with the recent news of domestic commander in chief, and the continued harassement of the militias by the government I now expect 10-12 with a nationwide civil war. The funny part is that there will be more than two sides.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), February 08, 1999.

I guess I'm a 7-8 on this scale. I was just saying yesterday, just when I'm thinking that things like increased awareness, and work being done may push my number down, I see things like the NERC report posted by BigDog yesterday, that push it right back up. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), February 08, 1999.

Hi Folks,

Gayla is correct. The impact will begin later this year but may have nothing directly, apparently, to do with Y2K. Next year will see a gradual increase in consequences for other nations. Even a ten percent 'correction' in the global economy means serious consequences for trading partners. For smaller western nations and Pacific nations the impact will be sharper and felt for longer.

I expect 8 in New Zealand given the rising greed emerging in millennium fever. Many of our systems will be functional but the flow on consequences from other economies will catch our 'lean and mean' JIT economy out. Add to that a depressed rural economy and a two year drought over the South Island and the systemic consequences mean it would be easy to move to 10.

-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), February 08, 1999.

8 to 9.

A lot will depend upon the population's resolve and ability to set things straight... and considering how soft the average Amerikan has become in body, mind and spirit, that may not count for much.

Got Jesus?

-- Why2K? (who@knows.com), February 08, 1999.

9, over the course of a couple years.

-- a (a@a.a), February 08, 1999.

10; sans qualifiers!

-- c (c@c.c), February 08, 1999.

My best case scenario is a 5.

(hedge, hedge, hedge)

Could be a 7.

(hedge, hedge, hedge)

OK, I think it will be a 9.

Prepin' to the MAX! (as far as the budget allows, anyway)

Hope you all do to.

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), February 08, 1999.

i think that there is about a 50% chance of an 8.

i think that there is a 25% chance that it will be 7 or less. i am hoping for 5, which at this point will be my absolute lower boundary, my best case scenario. but miracles will have to happen between now and the future for us to get through with a 5.

i think there is a 25% chance that there will be a 9 or greater.

the slope here between 9 and 10 is very slippery. i think 9 is not very sustainable and will inevitably lead to a 10 unless problems are very short lived.

-- Django (coprolith@rocketship.com), February 08, 1999.

If I think it's an 8.5, then why am I not 100% prepared by now?

Am I voting with my checkbook, here? Why haven't I gone into debt to finance this opinion/prediction?

I must not think it'll be 8-9, even though I'm pretty sure it will be?

I think the hardest part is teasing the (aggregate results of both direct and indirect Y2K technical problems) from (the above value + subsequent attendant social/war problems). It's just too much of an opportunity for too many people to pull off too many terrible things.

-- Lisa (lisa@thepolls.now), February 08, 1999.

with rose-colored glasses on: 8-9 without glasses: 10+++ Bobbi http://www.buzzbyte.com/

-- Bobbi (bobbia@slic.com), February 08, 1999.

Before last week was a 12, I spent last week on the beach, I'm now at an 8.

Why is that? Is it because I have swiss cheese as a brain unable to retain more than 50% of the info I read? (One teacher once told me we retain around 60% of what we study.)

Is it because I had such a wonderful week in such an idealic place with not a worry in the world, I didn't talk/think about y2k more than twice very briefly, and too much pina colada caused the holes in my brain?

Is it because a taxi driver on the island where I was told me they were hit by a hurricane 10 years ago, leaving them without electricity for 6 months and they managed well enough?

Is it because this forum is becoming a cult of Milne and everyone is afraid of not agreeing with Milne, so being away from his wild-eyed ravings cleared my brain?

Who knows. All I know is, an 8 as described above is the worse I can imagine now for the US and Canada, taking into account the global picture. Ofcourse it's all relative, it could be anywhere from a 6 to 10 (10 being the very worse case scenario) depending on the country and local. I don't believe 4 billion people will perish though. One billion is my most pessimist worry at this time. Probably much less. I hope.

But remembering an annonymous quote, "a conclusion is the place where you got tired of thinking", I conclude nothing and will keep on thinking (and preparing.)

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), February 08, 1999.

10 is my feeling. I think many elderly people are going to die. I work with the elderly and see that most are hanging on by a string now. People who have been on medications for many years will have problems if they don't maintain their medication balance. I think it is going to start slowly 1/1/2000 then snowball.

-- monique (me@home.here), February 08, 1999.

A slippery 8....

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), February 08, 1999.

without the human factor: 7.5

with the human factor 7.0 in the rural portions of North America, and 9.0 - 9.5 in the urban portions of same.

But Gayla is right - we need to be thinking globally:

7.5 - 9.5 for Central and South America (due as much to proximity to us as anything else)

8.5 - 9.5 minimum for Eastern Europe, and Russia.

7.5 for China (who will notice the difference?)

9.5 minimum for Japan and Korea

5 - 7.5 for most of the rest of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, due to less overall dependence on automation....

8.5 - 12(i.e. large areas of radioactive glass) for the middle east...depending on a *lot* of things.

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), February 08, 1999.

5 for me and 10 for others.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), February 08, 1999.

A nine. I base that on my understanding of the domino effect. When I think of a global domino effect, it has to be at LEAST a nine.

As Paul so eloquently roars, "We're toast!"

-- shivermetimbers (zerodegrees@brrrrrr.com), February 08, 1999.

LOL ---Yes, really LOL. This thread has over fifty contributors, it's like preaching to the choir. The poor trolls and pollyannas wouldn't dare post their feeling, they'd get flamed. It's not a doom and gloom forum, but most of us do "GI", so why not all the scores above 6.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), February 08, 1999.

7-7.5, unchanged for a while

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), February 08, 1999.

minimum 8

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), February 08, 1999.

A 7 starting in the fourth quarter of 1999, degenerating to a 10 by the third quarter of 2000.

And that's my optimistic outlook... I'm with Milne when I get pessimistic.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), February 08, 1999.

I'm at an 8 and sliding for 9 -- hard to imagine a depression that doesn't lead to widespread social disorder (a lot of people are going to be really angry if they lose their savings and 401Ks) and should the supply lines collaspe there will be famine in this country on a wide spread basis. (unless more of us are more prepared than we think, with lots of seeds on hand -- and the govt. is doing the same -- but I'm not holding my breath)

My preparations are well along (I've been working slowly, inching forward for about a year)... have water, heat, food, tools, gardening supplies, extra blankets, clothes, shoes, educational material re: cisterns, water storage/treatment, gardening, solar ovens and the materials to make them for neighbors... stuff to make soap, canning materials, medical supplies, Baygen radio (sw), candles/lamps/lamp oil/wicks.... and I swear every day I think of something else I don't have, that I didn't think about....and I know if I hadn't had the feedback from so many people on this site and others I would be very far behind my current level of preparedness. My thanks to all of you, and Paul...I think the 7-11 will close before Jan. 1... but your point is well taken...just nothing I can do about it... other than be prepared to defend... (quite frankly I'm as afraid of hungry dogs as I'm afraid of hungry people -- but that's a childhood trauma thing) still got some fencing to get up -- some shutters and gutters to install -- a cistern to get hooked up -- some extra tools to buy -- I don't know how this will work out -- somehow I have a sense that people will work together better than most expect... except in certain very high density locales...

-- Shelia (shelia@active-stream.com), February 08, 1999.

10, until new facts become available showing that it won't be that bad.

-- Roger Altman (RogAltman@AOL.com), February 08, 1999.

If we get to a three or four, then I dont see how we can stop at all.

And a three or four seems inevitable.

big 10

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), February 08, 1999.

8.5 10 in certain "urban" areas of the U.S. We, and I am speaking for the U.S. only, will easily slide into a 9-10 scenario if there is no immediate re-structuring of the currency when the collapse occurs. The lack of commerce will result in the collapse of the dollar with those in the "know" purchasing Euros and any gold backed currencies in mid to late 1999. When our debt is no longer honored, the major money center banks will collapse, because the U.S. government will be unable to print enough dollars to bail them out. HENCE not only will we be experiencing deflation on a worldwide scale, we will suffer from hyperinflation similar to Germany in the 1920's. Think about this people. Without a stable currency, what reason does any nation have to conduct business with us, especially if we are experiencing social chaos also? Since we no longer have a manufacturing infrastructure of any consequence, and since the plants we have relocated overseas will be nationalized by the local governments as soon as the depression hits rock bottom, what do we have to trade? What do we have to offer the "world" economic community? McDonald's? Burger King? Citibank customer service reps? I would feel better if Das Klinton was not in power. But emergency powers in the hands of a meglomaniac do not let me sleep well at night.... Lock and load.

And don't get suckered by the stock market...When your shoe shine boy offers you advice on the market, when the bag boy at the grocery store gloats about his internet stocks, and when schmucks who do not read their history books invest 30% of their life's savings and future in the market, it means one thing; WE ARE AT A HISTORICAL TOP. Read about the Great Depression, and the underlying economic history that accompanies this to see what I am talking about. It is dry reading, but the parrallels are ominous. Live Free or Die, John

-- John Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), February 08, 1999.

It's lookin' like 8.5 to this long term lurker. I pray it won't be, I want to be wrong, but that's my estimate at this point.

Trustin' in Jesus.

-- TM (tommy@thecrossroads.com), February 08, 1999.

At least an 8. I hate y2k! I have prepared for a 7 trying to go for a 10. I plan to sell my house soon and move to the middle of nowhere. So for that reason I have purchased a $24,000 jeep. My family is spending thousands on food we have at least 5 generators a huge solar array, wind generator, and 6kw backup. Last year my dad shot an elk off the front porch! We have 800 gallons of gasoline and 1000 gallons of propane 300 acres of standing timber and several wood stoves. Will I be counted among the dead as infomagic puts it who knows! I had big plans before y2k and now ????????????????????Tmanat clueless.com

-- Tman (Tman@IBAgeek.com), February 08, 1999.

No matter what happens in the rest of the country, if I'm one of the ones who dies, it was a 10 for me.

-- Pearlie Sweetcake (storestuff@home.now), February 08, 1999.

First I don't think it will happen instantly at the stroke of midnight.

I think we will slide from a 5 into a 7 over a couple of week period.

I don't think people will truly panic until they &/or their children are hungry and they cannot get food.

I think it will progress to an 8.

Going to a 9 or 10 in my opinion depends on the human factor. Will employees stay and work on the problems, or leave to protect hearth & home? Will we rise to the level of heroes or sink to the depths of depravity? History is filled with examples of both.

Depression is inevitable y2k or no y2k.

The 3rd world is toast. Russia is already toast...so burnt toast? Eastern Europe toast.Italy toast. Middle East toast (Israel maybe like U.S., Canda, Australia, England,..7-8...) Japan toast. Korea toast. Brazil is already toast...more burnt toast...Africa (the entire continent)toast. I don't even want to think of the political upheval and potential for wars of mass destruction, that is where my brain stops and will not let me contemplate.

Even if we fix everything here at home....we will feel the effects of this to our toes. This is why I am convinced this will be the end of the world AS WE KNOW IT....at least for a pretty long time. (5 to 10 years)

WARNING OFF TOPIC And on a personal note I feel really sorry for my children ages 6 & 8 (and all children)because I don't think they will be able to understand what happened until they are quite a bit older. They have never been hungry. They have never been in need. Unless someone puts a bullet in our heads we will survive. But I picture them as adults a bit like my Grandfather. A house packed with junk, because you never know you might be able to sell that aluminum scrap and buy some food.....actually he's part of the reason I know we can survive...he had less than nothing as a kid and he is still living and still amazing. Their generation will have far more wisdom than mine (gen x), but wisdom is not free, it comes with a price & and cannot be bought. Ignorance is bliss.

Life is short, pray hard.

Deborah

-- Deborah (TEOTWAWKI@2000.y2k), February 08, 1999.

7 minimum

I'm expecting quality flight of capital from emerging economies this summer; followed by consumer conservatism and beginnings of panic; bank runs in Japan and elsewhere, then in the US. Haven't heard anything positive about oil, chemical, transportation industries, or sewage treatment, water purification and desalinization plants. Widespread disease that can't be treated is a huge concern. The latest NERC report analysis increases belief in widespread lying by agencies and large firms--as well that they're idiots. Haven't heard anything positive about the IRS (but of course, that's nothing new); FAA still troubled. I think the military is blatantly lying in saying that it will have all mission critical systems remediated by end of this year, and even so what about all its non=MCs, same with other gov agencies. Not much positive in state and local gov preparation. Hospitals seem poorly prepared--social services for the dispossessed will be hit hard. I expect a lot crisis management by national guard, military, FEMA, Red Cross--this should mitigate some disasters--a lot depends on power and water. But take a drive through some large cities--NY, LA, Chicago, Detroit, etc.--can't help but see desperation if/when local infrastructure stays down for a while. 19% of GDP dependent upon exports--Gone. GM gone. Imports anyone? Don't count on it. Global banking--doesn't look good without global telecom. The collapse of many national and global interdependencies (dominoe or charlotte's web effect) could be the final blow. I expect the Pentagon is already planning on rebuilding the infrastructure, supply distribution channels, etc. Hope it plans well. Good contingency plans and family preparation should save a lot of grief (for some anyway). This is my picture as of now. Hope it will change for the better in the next 6 months, but I'm not counting on it.

-- bdb (not@peace.com), February 08, 1999.

It's easily an 8. With KKKlinton involved, um... 10.

I was lower on the scale until I took a hard look at the system that we're running at work. Bios - noncomplient (can't find an upgrade), OS - noncomplient, Print software - company won't return my calls (oops, I mentioned Y2K on the voice mail), Phone system - Lucent (complient??? Their statement of complience has an odd little disclaimer, they say that some things may work differently. What does that mean?), Accounting software - ??? (I've never heard of the software it appears to be custom)... I'm just a graphic artist and I'm the only one there that knows anything about computers.

The boss won't pay any attention to me on this issue. He just shruggs his shoulders and walks away. I told him about the lawsuit against the company that makes his phone system... NO RESPONSE. He doesn't seem to care. I'm going to try one more time. If I don't get a response, screw them. I refuse to take responsibility for the complience of this business! I haven't even looked into our suppliers. We, for the most part, depend on "just in time" supplies. The business, as I see it, is screwed. I can't imagine that this isn't the norm.

-- d (d@notreallydgi.old), February 08, 1999.

I'll put mine in hexadecimal C++ :)

Because the world-wide crisis will be too tempting for the Generals and the old men, to resist military power grabs and the settling of old scores.

Because there is an agenda being played out.

Because mankind is greedy and stupid and docile.

And because we never learn.

Two digits. One mechanism. The smallest mistake.

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 08, 1999.

EIGHT..Got bens? Got bills? Got franks? Got johns?

-- yourworstnightmare (xxxx@zzzz.com), February 09, 1999.

U.S.: 8.0 (average of regional variations)

Germany: 9.0

Japan: 9.5

Russia: 10.0

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 09, 1999.

If we are very lucky, y2k by itself would only cause a 7.5. But add to this the economic meltdown already gaining steam and you get something like an 8.5. But the way i see it, given the parameters outlined in the question, an 8 would cause a 9 would cause a 10. So, uh...10. (adjusted up or down depending on locale.) It's difficult to envisage a 2003 that has not witnessed wars (of whatever scale) due to the proceeding discombobulation.

got iodine?

-- humptydumpty (no.6@thevillage.com.au), February 09, 1999.

Where am I on the scale? I wish a 0 but I think an 8 is likely. I also think it depends on where you live, what past hardships/training you have. Those of us who have lived on farms or been part of the military already have knowledge that will come in mighty handy in surviving whatever comes. (Thanks, Dad.) Linda

-- newbiebutnodummy (Linda@home.com), February 09, 1999.

The median response is an 8.0

One-third of the estimates are 8.0 or less

One-third of the estimates are 9.0 or greater

19% are less than an 8.0

38% are 9.0 or higher

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 09, 1999.

Damn you. You all expect to be toast. Well, in that case, I'm gonna be fried rice.

So there.

-- Paul Milne (polly@anna.com), February 09, 1999.

Ed, Sir: If you are still here, how about putting in your two cents?

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), February 11, 1999.

I'm at a 9 right now.

-- Darlene (northeast@me.net), February 12, 1999.

I did an interview last night for a local TV station. One hour interview to be cut to a 2-3 minute "sound bite". I told him on record I was hoping it would get no worse than a severe depression (8). Personally, I am expecting and planning as best I can a 10. If you are buying insurance, buy as much as you can afford.....

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), February 12, 1999.

6 on this scale, although I don't see how runs on banks could occur at 5 and have it be only a recession. I guess a 6 makes me still a pollyanna since most people here are saying more than 6.

-- Buddy (buddy@bellatlantic.net), February 12, 1999.

Hi Buddy Y! Nice to see you here again!

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), February 12, 1999.

Rob,

On this scale, bouncing around between ...

5 - Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks

[Rural location or prepared community, U.S. & some International]

6 - Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies

[Sub-urban or Rural locations and semi-prepared communities, U.S. & some International]

7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions

[Urban or large Sub-urban locations and either not or semi-prepared communities, U.S. & International]

8 - Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law

[Urban locations not prepared, U.S. & International]

Better to be ready for anything. The scale does go up, and off the charts, astronomically, if the power grids collapse. Then duration compounds and fractures.

Diane, still expect a 5 ish on a scale where 1 is bump and 10 is Global Thermonuclear War.

*Create Community, Prepare 2 Share, Be Y2K Aware*

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), February 15, 1999.