Hi folks:

Just visited the www.sightings.com site recommended by Nikolai (in reference to Russia nuke situation), and discovered the following information. Am interested in anyone's opinion (either refuting or agreeing).

******* Skeptics Scoff At Dire Millennium Predictions By Nanda Tieri Canadian Press 1-11-99

TORONTO (CP) -- Planes falling from the sky, massive computer and power failures, food and water shortages -- these are the doomsday predictions about the new millennium that have some people running for the hills. But it's all superstitious bunk, say skeptics who are refusing to buy into the hype surrounding the early days of the year 2000. Our medieval ancestors bought into the dire scenarios and now -- 1,000 years later -- the panic is resurfacing like a latent virus. "We're as credulous and as superstitious and as awestruck as humans ever have been," said Mark Kingwell, an associate professor of philosophy at the University of Toronto. Kingwell plans to stay around town next New Year's and his only concession is some firewood. Philosophy professor Bob Martin fully expects a stop at the local supermarket for groceries on Jan. 2, 2000 will be just that -- a shop for groceries. And Martin points out that the hysteria being felt by some -- including many across North America who are bunkering down as though Armageddon is near -- isn't anything new. Historical records show people were terrified in the closing days of 999. At the time, the widespread fears -- of an anti-Christ or Armageddon -- were defined in religious terms, Martin said. Historically, doomsday predictions were often associated with "number magic," he said. It's a phenomenon that endures today. "Beyond the computer problem, there's just a crazy fear about number magic as if the number of the year has any effect on what goes on. It's an arbitrary, conventional thing," Martin said. He thinks people are grabbing onto the computer issue as a way of justifying this strange, "irrational, magical fear." Both before and after the year 1000, people expressed anxieties about the end of the world being keyed to dates, added Kingwell. "The numbers are arbitrary but they take on a powerful, almost mystical influence. It's the way culture works. Arbitrary things can become powerful," Kingwell said. The number 2000 holds a mystic quality that seduces some to believe an incomprehensible disaster is going to strike, said Martin, a professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax. Indeed, the fact the new century actually begins in 2001 doesn't seem to influence people since it's the number 2000 that raises irrational fears, he said. Kingwell also believes that people have grown so dependent on technology that the prospect of something going wrong is deeply unsettling. "Numbers are used as a scientific tool. They kind of reveal the structure of the way the universe is. The whole progress in modern sciences has arrived because of the mathematization of the way the universe works," said Martin. Whether it's the modern age or the year 999, people have a superstitious awe of numbers, believing selective numbers are good or bad. The new millennium is causing additional fears since it happens to be creating a computer problem as well. "The mystique is all about that zero. The mysterious number in the number system. Why do we care about this date turning at all?" asked Kingwell. "Some people don't, but lots of people do." Paul Hoffert also believes the millennium issue has been largely overblown. With exception of computer problems, the ability to predict problems in advance is simple to do from a computer science perspective. Hoffert, a director at the CulTech Research Centre at York University, said he wouldn't be surprised if there were more disruptions during last year's ice storm than there will be in the year 2000. Rather than panicking about the turn of the century, the year 2000 provides an opportunity of recollection and reassessment that could be enormously productive, said Kingwell. "We have to come to terms with being 21st century beings now and get on with the business of creating this future. The fact that it's daunting makes us susceptible to all these anxieties but also to hopes. We don't want to see it as all dark." Comment By Heath Stallcup 1-11-99 Jeff - I've heard about all the Y2K crap I can handle and just need to vent. All the doomsayers are choking on their own sweat and spittle as they rattle the chains of fear and gloom and attempt to scare the bejeezus out of the common man. It make you wonder how man ever survived before computers. I expect there to be some foul-ups and some delays. But how can people worry about there not being any food in the grocery stores? PEOPLE crate, deliver and uncrate the stuff for purchase. Where will that change? Instead of a computer generated order sheet, someone will actually have to break out a pen and paper and WRITE IT DOWN. And unless truckers have changed in the last few years and have clock slaved computer chips in their brains, they will still be able to find the stores. So, we may have intermittent power outages. When was the last time a power outage sent raving hoardes of crazies into the streets, ready to kill their neighbors and friends for scraps of food? Come on, people. Its not the end of the world, or the end of civilization. We might (repeat MIGHT) have some inconveniences, but nothing earthshattering here. Our nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines will not go nutsy and launch a nuclear strike against the Communist state of Ohio. It will not rain bodies and aircraft parts onto your backyard bar-b-que. The sky will not fall and people will not turn to cannabalism to maintain their USRDA of vitamin human. If people are really concerned, tell them to keep a couple of weeks supply of canned goods on hand. Maybe they could fill some 2 litre pop bottles with water in case they are truly concerned. The point is this, although computers and electronics have made our lives easier, they havent dominated us. Most systems are designed to fail safe. PEOPLE have the ability to override the mechanics of the machines and get the basics in line. So what if your bank says you had a million dollar deposit or a check for $115, 000.00 hit and you had insufficient funds. Keep paper copies. It can be ironed out after the initial shock. The point is, don't be stoopid. If this is really some government ploy to initiate martial law, it won't work if the people are calm and ready to deal with the little snafus that occur everyday. Just dont panic. It's not worth it. It's a waste of energy. Panic will not fix anything. Be patient. Be concerned. But don't go thinking that life as we know it will be over. It wont. If you stop and think about it for a moment, it seems pretty silly. Do you really think that something as simple as a computer not knowing the proper date will cause the greatest nation in the history of the world to suddenly collapse into the darkest of times? Puh-lease! These doomsayers have the best of both worlds. Any thing that doesn't go perfectly smooth, they can blame on Y2K. If nothing happens and the world continues, they can pat themselves on the back and claim that it was because they gave the world fair warning and stuff got fixed 'just in the nick of time'. Either way, life will go on. People will fall in love. People will hate. People will do stoopid things and get caught. People will lend helping hands. People will bury the hatchet. Other people will dig it up. All the joys and trials, all the good and the bad will continue. Depending on where you live, you may have noticable effects due to Y2K, and you may not. Either way, its not the end of the world. Not even close. Just enhance your calm and enjoy the centennial. Heath ************

The things this guy had to say appealed to a certain part of my psyche, but I'm still not ready to jump in his boat--without a life preserver. Anyone?

Elena

-- Elena Mauceri (elena-mauceri@worldnet.att.net), January 16, 1999

Answers

This is a site to the "Coming Anarchy" scenario by Robert Kaplan.

http://www3.theatlantic.com/atlantic/election/connection/foreign/anarc hy.htm

Hey, we don't need a little Y2K computer bug to destory the world... we are doing just fine by ourselves. My take on it? Y2K will just be the kick in the head that costs us the world title. After all, isn't it totally absurd to think we can continue on in peace when the world around us is crashing and burning? Oh yeah, I'm sure we will be just fine... {sarcastic laughs as picture fades}

-- TenBears (Appalled@WashingtonDC.com), January 16, 1999.

That's something I like about sightings website. They carry both sides of the issue, and tons of info the mainstream media won't touch.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), January 16, 1999.

So we'll have to write it down!Truckers know.Power outtages.Initial shock.Shock?!Who said that?!Magic numbers.Calm down!Raving hoardes!2 weeks water! People will hate!Lend hatchets!You might notice!

-- Type r (Sortapreparin@polly.anna), January 16, 1999.

Happy to do so -- Hope this helps.

===============

Planes falling from the sky, massive computer and power failures, food and water shortages -- these are the doomsday predictions about the new millennium that have some people running for the hills.

First, any description of the Y2K problem that starts with the obligatory pollyanna planes falling from the sky, has gotten off on the wrong foot. No one ever claims that planes will fall from the sky.

Computer failures, yes. Power failures.......these havent been ruled out by any means.

Historical records show people were terrified in the closing days of 999.

This author has tried several times to link Y2K to religious millennial fever. Doesnt work. The only records from around circa 1000 AD are church records that do not indicate widespread panic. The vast majority of the populations didnt keep track of time records at that particular point in time. This is a hoax.

"The mystique is all about that zero. The mysterious number in the number system. Why do we care about this date turning at all?"

We dont. Computer do. Another straw man argument is the one that says that the year is 5760 (or thereabouts) in the Jewish calendar, or 21946 in some other calendar, so we shouldnt worry about it. Baloney. Computers that only process dates up to a specific value will encounter problems when that value is exceeded.

Jeff - I've heard about all the Y2K crap I can handle and just need to vent. All the doomsayers are choking on their own sweat and spittle as they rattle the chains of fear and gloom and attempt to scare the bejeezus out of the common man. It make you wonder how man ever survived before computers. I expect there to be some foul-ups and some delays. But how can people worry about there not being any food in the grocery stores? PEOPLE crate, deliver and uncrate the stuff for purchase.

Yep, but computers order that food, and computers receive the orders at distribution centers, and the computers print out order to pull foods from storage in order to load the food onto trucks, and the food is delivered in trucks that run on petroleum, and the plants that refine gasoline or diesel fuel from crude oil depend on embedded systems that are at risk, and the trains that carry food across the country run on petroleum and depend on proper computerized switching of the tracks so that the food indented for New York doesnt end up in Iowa.

Instead of a computer generated order sheet, someone will actually have to break out a pen and paper and WRITE IT DOWN.

Yep, and some of the companies that automated their operations and now depend on computers to replace the order takers will probably go under because they incur increased costs.

And unless truckers have changed in the last few years and have clock slaved computer chips in their brains, they will still be able to find the stores.

If their trucks have gasoline, and if the trucking company is able to keep track of the orders.

So, we may have intermittent power outages. When was the last time a power outage sent raving hoardes of crazies into the streets, ready to kill their neighbors and friends for scraps of food?

When was the last time the power went out in NYC? 1968?

Come on, people. Its not the end of the world, or the end of civilization.

I think the phrase is the end of the world as we know it. Big difference. No one (very few) claim the end of the world or the end of civilization. Many claim that there will be big chances in the way we live.

We might (repeat MIGHT) have some inconveniences, but nothing earthshattering here.

And your proof of this is?

Most systems are designed to fail safe.

Strawman. No one is talking about railroad trains running through the middle of New York City at 120 mph.

PEOPLE have the ability to override the mechanics of the machines and get the basics in line.

People used to be able to override the mechanics of the machines because people used to do all the work that has been delegated to the machines. How many jobs have been lost, people replaced, and skills lost because of computers? People could write all the checks that Social Security issues in a month. Your homework assignment, should you choose to actually learn about the effects of Y2K, rather than post drivel, is to determine how many people would be required simply to write all the checks, manually, that the federal government issues in a month. Well allow the writers to write checks at the rate of one every 10 minutes........people who simply sit and scribble checks arent very motivated.

-- ohmygoodness (polly@anna.com), January 16, 1999.

Sounds to me like the pollyanna guy here is the one who is scared shitless. Sounds to me like so much whistling past the graveyard. "There's no such thing as ghosts There's no such thing as ghosts. It is only a movie....only a movie....only a movie."

After all, if y2k IS all just a hoax, why go on & on about it? Why not just sit back & enjoy the show? It should be hugely entertaining. Guys like this remind me of people who go on & on about how all homosexuals should be gutted; you can only guess at their own hidden desires.

(Actually, my guess is that this guy has a closet full of canned food & a cashe of ammo somewhere, & would rather die than admit it. Puh-lease.)

-- guessing (not@aol.com), January 16, 1999.

Elena,

That article does correctly point out that (big surprise) there are actually extremists in our society. It doesn't use facts to dispute legitimate Y2K concerns, such as Y2K projects that were started too late, missed and rescheduled deadlines, and the difficulty in finding non-compliant embedded systems in such things as water and sewer systems.

The fact that these organizations:

the American Red Cross...

http://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html

the Federal Emergency Management Agency...

http://www.fema.gov/nwz99/99001.htm

The National Guard...

http://www.ngb.dtic.mil/y2k/impact.htm

and the Chicago Tribune...

http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,SAV- 9901010066,00.html

...are concerned about Y2K is enough to assure me that my concerns about it are valid and appropriate.

Enough said?

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 16, 1999.

Responses to some items in the article (at http://www.sightings.com /ufo2/dire.htm):

"Hoffert, a director at the CulTech Research Centre at York University, said he wouldn't be surprised if there were more disruptions during last year's ice storm than there will be in the year 2000."

The storm to which Hoffert refers covered only a small portion of North America. Recovery from it was assisted by thousands of utility workers sent there from the majority of areas which had not suffered disruption. (Some workers from the southern U.S. arrived in Ontario before their arrangements for proper cold-weather clothing were complete.)

Y2k disruptions may not be so geographically limited. There is no particular reason why they should not occur over wide areas of the continent at overlapping times. Thus, comparisons based on the assumption of aid arriving from other areas may be invalid.

"But how can people worry about there not being any food in the grocery stores? PEOPLE crate, deliver and uncrate the stuff for purchase. Where will that change?"

It already has changed, Heath! Do you remember how much back-of-the-store area the average grocery store had three decades ago? (Are you old enough?) Well, they don't have nearly as much now.

Just-in-time inventory methods, made possible by computerization, have allowed a wide variety of businesses to run leaner than they used to, by reducing the percentage of area occupied by inventory. As long as the computers are running, it's a great thing to watch in action, and it reduces the business's capital and operating costs. But one disadvantage is that it cuts out much of the margin for variation in arrival of supplies or goods or food.

It used to be that if a retail shopper (not just for groceries) found that there was no more of a product on a store's shelves, an inquiry to a clerk would often be met with, "Oh, I'll get you one from the storeroom."

Now, that's not so common -- a more likely response is, "I'm sorry, but all our stock is on the shelves. I'll see when our next delivery is due." What that means is that the demand for the product was higher than the store anticipated, so their previous order was not large enough, and no, there's no room in the back of the store where they might have more of the product stacked up.

Nowadays, the inventory of product that takes up the slack in delivery variations has been pushed back to the warehouses or manufacturer, and retail stores depend on efficient scheduling of reliable transportation to keep their stock high enough to meet consumer demand. "Efficent" and "reliable" depend to a great extent on computers.

"And unless truckers have changed in the last few years and have clock slaved computer chips in their brains, they will still be able to find the stores."

But many of their schedules and routes are computer-optimized. Without computers, efficiency and productivity drop. Sure, the truckers will find the stores [assuming sufficient fuel and proper delivery orders -- a big assumption, as noted above by ohmygoodness (polly@anna.com)]. They just won't be delivering their cargoes as cost-effectively or reliably or rapidly. And sometimes the stores will wind up with too little of what they need or too much of what they don't, with little storage area for the excess.

"So, we may have intermittent power outages. When was the last time a power outage sent raving hoardes of crazies into the streets, ready to kill their neighbors and friends for scraps of food?"

Heath, I'm going to make a wild guess here -- you don't live in the northern U.S. or in Canada.

When the outside temperature is -20 F (not uncommon in certain parts of North America in December/January/February), a power outage does not send too many raving hoardes into the streets. It simply turns them into icicles.

If you do indeed live in a warm climate, Heath, perhaps you haven't thought about the fact that when the electric power is out, a gas furnace doesn't warm ones house because there's no electricity to power the blower, and when the blower doesn't move the air, the furnace automatically stays off in order to prevent overheating that could start a(n external) fire. Not to mention the electronic ignition for the gas flame. And some houses are electrically heated, with no gas furnace anyway. And 99% of fireplaces in northern homes are not designed for round-the-clock or whole-house heating. And 99% of homeowners with fireplaces stock enough wood for only occasional decorative fires, not serious home wood-heating.

"Come on, people. Its not the end of the world, or the end of civilization."

People die from hypothermia in northern U.S. cities every winter even without power outages -- during outages the rate skyrockets.

"Most systems are designed to fail safe."

... and we never read about one that fails, because all engineers and manufacturers are perfect, right? So no one dies in accidents.

"So what if your bank says you had a million dollar deposit or a check for $115, 000.00 hit and you had insufficient funds. Keep paper copies. It can be ironed out after the initial shock."

Some of the wrinkles could be lethal -- financially or literally.

"If this is really some government ploy"

Y2k is real. Get used to it.

"to initiate martial law"

I wish we would have no failures of local government severe enough to require martial law to maintain order while civilian government was reorganized, but I predict that there will be a few scattered local cases of short duration.

"These doomsayers have the best of both worlds. Any thing that doesn't go perfectly smooth, they can blame on Y2K."

Agreed -- we have a number of examples in this forum already.

"If nothing happens and the world continues, they can pat themselves on the back and claim that it was because they gave the world fair warning and stuff got fixed 'just in the nick of time'."

Well, when a few computer pioneers issued warnings three and four decades ago, they weren't heeded. Thousands of us programmers noticed Y2k bugs over the years, and individually commented on them to management, but we weren't heeded, either.

Doomsayers do deserve some credit for helping to get the Y2k-awareness ball rolling ... along with some folks who combined computer knowledge with public-relations skills. If the doomsayers could stop within the bounds of reasonableness, then they'd deserve even more credit ... but then they wouldn't be doomsayers.

Society needs all types of people.

"Depending on where you live, you may have noticable effects due to Y2K, and you may not."

If you prepare for Y2k-caused disruptions, and they don't occur, you will be better prepared for other types of disruption than you are now.

If you don't prepare for Y2k-caused disruptions, and they do occur, you could suffer financial loss, property loss, injury, disease, or even death.

So why not prepare? -- Your chances are better that way. It's the sensible choice.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), January 16, 1999.

Thanks to all who took the time to respond. I thought it would be good to introduce another viewpoint into the forum, and encourage a healthy exchange of ideas. After all, isn't that the purpose of this forum?

I admire Heath a bit just for thinking on his own (to a certain degree), and to even THINKING about y2k and its potential for changing our lives. More than the typical American "sheople". It's a step . . .

Elena

-- Elena Mauceri (elena-mauceri@worldnet.att.net), January 17, 1999.

Elena

I don't much bother trying to convince those types of people anymore. I slipped a disk from all of the heavy tugging it takes to pull someones head out of their ass.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), January 17, 1999.