I scanned some of the postings on various groups in this forum and noticed that there is more optimism about the Y2K impact than there seemed to have been a week ago.

Why:

Phase of moon?

Real improvement?

More convincing lies?

Not much has happened yet?

More pleasant TV commercials?

Uncle Deedah is on a cruise in the Mediterranean?

-- fly . (.@...), January 15, 1999

Answers

Y2K Fatigue. Just resting.

Looks like its going to be even more challenging to sift the "good news" from the back-channel actions.

And I LIKE good news!

I'm just concerned about, WHO we are hearing it from. Do I trust Koskinen or the Pentagon? NO. In a simple word. They have demonstratable "vested" interests in disinformation.

I am, however VERY impressed with the National Guard. They are more US, than the U.S. govern-mental types.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 15, 1999.

I don't think so, as I see more and more programmers saying they will bug out before the main event. I haven't read any good news except government spin and DGI's.

Maybe it's that most of us are less panicky now and more centered and preparation savvy.

If there is any good news, it is that some more are GI and starting to prepare which will help us all in the long run.

-- Sue (deco100@aol.com), January 15, 1999.

Moods change from day-to-day. Stock market down, bad mood, stock market up good mood. The spinmeisters set the mood of those that don't realize that they just swallowed the bait. I have resolved myself to the fact that if Y2K goes down as a bump in the road or TEOTWAWKI, there's nothing I can do about either one of them. I'm accepting whatever comes my way, and I keep my ears and eyes open for new information. So far, I haven't heard anything new, just more spinning.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 15, 1999.

Chance 50% of mission-critical systems will be compliant: ???%,

Chance 100% mission-critical systems worldwide will be compliant: 0%,

Chance 100% mission-critical systems US will be compliant: 0%,

Chance millions of all-other useful systems will be compliant: 0%,

Chance embedded systems will bite us big-time: ???%,

Chance Koskinen will tell the truth once: 0%,

Chance de Jager will make 1M in 1999: 100%,

Chance Hamasaki is actually clueless: 0%

Chance Y2K > 7 = 80%,

Chance Y2K > 8 = 25%,

Chance Y2K > 9 = 2%,

Chance you'll be able to get what you need to prepare > 6/1999: 25%

Reasons to be optimistic: zero.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 15, 1999.

I agree with Bardou! What we really need is some hard data and that will come Feb. 01 99 with the K-mart, Walmart... rollovers. The Jo Anne effect will need a little time to kick in. My prep will go full-tilt boogie when I see the indicators. However dont think I am not preparing. Right now I am going at a set pace but when things start to look bad I will put the finishing touches on my supplies and get ready for a real long camping trip. Tman.

-- Tman (Tman@clueless.com), January 15, 1999.

Now wait a minute BD - random distribution would indicate that koskinen will *accidentally* tell the truth at least once if given long enough...

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), January 15, 1999.

I too have noted a surge of "sure fire we can do it!" optimism on this forum as well as others. In the minority of posters to be sure, but then the very nature of the Y2K issue is such that doomers are more likely to be interested than those who don't think Y2K is going to really amount to much.

As to why, when here it is, mid January 1999, and there is not even one single electric utility, telecomm, bank, or hardly anything else that is ready for Y2K, there would be such a display of optimism? My own belief is that it is desperation, fueled by the realization that yes, Y2K is as bad as it ever was conjectured to be, and no, we as a society will not be ready. Such realizations can cause people to act irrationally.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), January 15, 1999.

I am more optimistic than I was a week ago.

That fact, however, has only to do with the fact that a major personal/community preparation goal has been achieved in that time. It is now apparent that barring ultra-extreme scenarios, we will be able to feed ourselves and some few others indefinitely.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 15, 1999.

More optimistic. Getting real close on preparedness, also making big strides in community awareness.

Even if the NERC report is half BS, I get the distinct impression that power producers are awake now, and one year is a lot of time to work with.

I can deal emotionally and financially with a depression. I can't deal with the ramifications of widespread power loss...

-- Lisa (lisab@shallc.com), January 15, 1999.

Maybe the current sense of optimism is based upon preparation. Those active in their preparations have accepted the possibility of disruptions and made the choice to prepare for them. The "vibe" is more positive but the outlook isn't.

Maybe it's the positive way people are dealing with the issues associated with y2k.

Either way, I think that sense of optimism will change when the first big wave of failures occur and all the DWGIs shift in their positions and panic to prepare.

Mike ===============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 15, 1999.

I think it is a mix of:

1) need/desire to lighten up 2) progress being made 3) the spin Drs coming out 4) hope

-- Sue (conibear@gateway.net), January 15, 1999.

I forgot preparation.

-- Sue (conibear@gateway.net), January 15, 1999.

I think Mike is right. I also believe we are in for a few BIG surprises this year, so don't get complacent.

Uncle Deedah, you didn't invite me to go on the cruise?? :-(

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), January 15, 1999.

I'm actively looking for positive news and posting it as I see it if it's from a respectable source. But, my mind was made up long ago after doing intense research, that the world and the U.S. started too late to fix, and that's the only real fact that matters. No amount of news, spin or evidence will change my mind. I am simply awaiting 2000 to prove to me one way or the other what nobody knows now. Nobody.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 15, 1999.

Chris, I agree with you.

We can only hope to form an "educated guess" and hope for the best. (And prepare at whatever level of disruptions we believe fits our outlook and our budgets.)

-- Sue (conibear@gateway.net), January 15, 1999.

I don't know if the crew coming on the intercom and saying Ahhhhh... Ladies and gentlemen. This is your Captain speaking. We have some good news for you. Instead of the impending crash we told you about, we meant to say impending crash *landing*. We hope you won't be inconvenienced by our mis-spoken announcement. Flight attendants will be moving about the cabin shortly to assist you in assuming the proper crash position" is really what I would call good news.

After all, assuming the crash position looks an awful lot like trying to kiss one's ass goodbye to me.

I prefer the "Get prepared" method I used in the military. Run through the pre-eject checklist, tighten seat belts and parachute straps, retract and lock shoulder harness, put one hand on the ejection handle and wait for the "Bail-out!" command.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 15, 1999.

Wildweasel;

>After all, assuming the crash position looks an awful lot like trying to kiss one's ass goodbye to me.

I prefer the "Get prepared" method I used in the military. Run through the pre-eject checklist, tighten seat belts and parachute straps, retract and lock shoulder harness, put one hand on the ejection handle and wait for the "Bail-out!" command.<

Me to. I played "IFn" a lot of times too. Of course we also had a "chicken switch" on the BUFF in case the boss didn't want to wait around.

Were you the backseater?

S.O.B.

-- sweetolebob (La) (buffgun@hotmail.com), January 15, 1999.

Engineer, actually. But it seems nearly every time I went up for a test run where I could along, I ended up reciting the checklist for total utility hydraulics failure, engine out, electrical failure or something else. I always remembered the ejection checklist (just in case). A couple of times, it was almost a silk elevator moment.

We had the Command Selector Valve, rotate to the vertical position to leave by yourself and rotate horizontal to take your pilot with you. Of course if he decided to call upon Martin-Baker, you went for the ride, no questions asked.

You know, I keep running into ex-military all over the Y2K websites. I wonder if it's got to do with GI's being trained to recognize and react to threatening situations? Any thoughts on what is motivating some people to percieve Y2K as a potential life threatening problem and not just a nuisance level of problem, the way most of the population seems to?

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 15, 1999.

WW,

Training and team work, gets my vote. And remembering the team one is now on.

My Mom was a pilot, and loves to tell me her parachuting stories. (Shudder). Admire you guys, but prefer good 'ole Mother Earth. Would love to try ballooning though -- in Napa valley.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 15, 1999.

Diane, DO IT! Most fun you can have with your clothes on!!! We went a few years ago and we loved it! Bill

-- Bill S. (arlene@inreach.com), January 16, 1999.

I dunno about more optimistic. Seems to me it's just more centered (once you filter out the trolls and the clueless). People are beginning to come to some variety of acceptance based on individual risk assessments and understandings of what preparation level is feasible.

I figure I'm not the only one who's experienced phases of cognitive dissonance since I realized the implications of the problem. Yo-yo up and down for a while, then you begin to see there is a place to stand, internally.

As for the ex-combat guys -- and gals -- the process may be a little easier than for the others. You've already had the experience of realizing that if you don't get it right, you could die real soon-- which could happen even if you do get it right. Do that once and it's easier the next time around. Those circumstances were unambiguous, no way to tell yourself nothing was happening.

But everybody else looks around -- and see nothing threatening going on. Logic is a whole lot less convincing than incoming. So it's harder for them to get their mind around this.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 18, 1999.

WW, I guess that means that GI's are GIs?

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), January 19, 1999.