We have run out of time to fix this mess.

The US will not make it in time. The "rest of the world" has no chance.

Don't believe me?

By my reckoning we have about 230 working days left to get every single entity on earth up to speed. Let's take the USA for example as it has the lowest amount of vacation days in the world. (e.g. Saudia Arabia takes 3 months off, Ramadan plus regular vacation. France takes the month of August off every year plus 15 public holidays, plus strikes (their national sport) - you get the picture...)

So. 230 days. Factor in public holidays. 220. Factor in sickness. 210. Factor in vacation time. 190. You could also factor in Friday afternoons in most shops and water cooler and fag breaks and long lunches and burn out and *unknown factors* (Martial Law anyone???) if you wish.

So - about <190 days is all we have left to fix everything in the USA. Whup-ee-do.

On the plus side - there may be overtime and death marches for geeks. A tired geek is not a good or careful remediator. It will not work. Entities have seriously underestimated the scope of the problem. Testing has all but gone out the window for many of them.

Factor in the great geek exodus from the ciities (for I am one) late next year. I will *NOT* be at a mainframe site in a big city at rollover unless there is a helicopter standing by to take me home and they pay me mucho gold coins.

Time has run out. Face it.

Less than 190 days.

Andy

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 13, 1999

Answers

Hmmmmm, what are fag breaks?

-- Don't Really Know (Dunno@dunno.com), January 13, 1999.

As Mark Twain said, England and America are two cultures separated by a common language.

We call 'em smoke breaks here. I don't know if the English people have decided to make themselves go outdoors as we have.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 13, 1999.

You need to add one more thing. productivity. You are assuming 100%. think about monday morning post mortems of football games, meetings, funerals, hand waiving sessions, other ancillary down time. If you factor in an 80% productivity factor then you really only have 150 days left instead of 190.

The remediation has already failed. It is not conjecture or speculation. We are going down and we are going down hard.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), January 13, 1999.

A Fag break is wot it sounds like

-- Swishy (Ho@MO.com), January 13, 1999.

Andy: I agree. I am getting out of Dodge at the first sign of martial law or "mandatory service" (cancellation of leave?).

Nikoli had a disturbing comment on the "CIOs to get security clearances" thread about "lists" being compiled of workers having certain "talents"...

-- a (a@a.a), January 13, 1999.

Andy -- "unless there is a helicopter standing by to take me home..."

Didja ever see the films of the helicopter evacuation from the American embassy in Saigon? The scene got hairy in a hurry.

But you can't be serious about the helo. Who'd want to be up in the air then anyway?

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 13, 1999.

Yes, but you are making one assumption. Okay, two.

1. Everything must be fixed. This is not true for reasons that have been outlined before.

2. Nothing has been fixed to date. This is also not true as there is adequate evidence to demonstrate.

Now, having said that, do I believe that everything that needs to be repaired will be repaired in time? No. However, I do not subscribe to the theory that, as Milne puts it, "we are going down and going down hard." And yes Mr. Milne, it is just a theory.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 13, 1999.

Paul N: you can pontificate all you want, but in the end, if enough technical folks like me and Andy haul butt, you'll be the one left holding the bag. That's fair warning.

-- a (a@a.a), January 13, 1999.

Another thing about remediation in early 2000...have you seen Intel's SEC 10-Q filing?

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 13, 1999.

I have never believed that everything would be fixed in time. Neither have I believed that nothing would be fixed. It is the consequences of those events that are about to unfold that are shrouded in a fog of uncertainty.

But it seems to me we still have 300+ days to get preparations and contingency plans in place. This is significantly more than the folks who suffered hurricane Mitch had and such preparation would go a long way toward reducing our families' and our communities' vulnerabilities. Disruption need not be synonymous with disaster. But it takes work and commitment.

No, everything will not be fixed. While great many problems may be inconsequential and will not directly affect you, certainly some will. The more we prepare, and the more we reach out to others who will work with us, the better chance we all have.

It is not too late to take action which can ensure that you and your families and your communities will be able to endure moderate disruptions. But it is getting very late and you're probably going to need to work more than just those '150 working days'.

Y2K is not a giant asteroid. Your fate is not sealed. The choices you make today can and will make a difference..maybe not for General Motors or the DoD...but for yourself, your family and your community.

Fear and anger are only useful if they prompt you to take positive action to change the outcome and consequences of events that haven't yet happened.

Be prepared to endure some hardship without coming apart at the seams. Stop waiting for someone else the fix the problem. Take personal responsibility for those you love and care about and for the things in your life that you value.

No, there are no promises. But then again, there never have been.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), January 14, 1999.

The Helicopter! - probably too many embedded chips, can't trust the pilot to be there, and ATC will also be up the swannee river - so, yes, a little artistic licence;)

Point is, I *won't* be in a big city, no matter what inducements I am offered. Many of my compadres will feel the same way I know for a fact.

As for Paul's further 20% chop - yes, this is quite possible. It could be more, depending on the world economy, the markets, public feeling etc. My <190 days I felt was worrying enough without milking it - I still think <190 is about right as of this point in time, bearing in mind o/t and work ethic. At some point both of these will vanish in an instant.

Having said that however, events change so quickly now - look what happened to Brazil today - yes, we all saw it coming a mile away - nevertheless things do hit quickly. The situation will constantly fluctuate throughout '99, this will further erode the <190 working day paradigm I suggested - just wait and see. I have no doubt that this <190 days will be adversely impacted by factors yet to emerge.

Andy

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 14, 1999.

Well, IMHO, the fat lady has not yet sung. (Although she sure sounded wheezy as she walked on stage..). But if you have dependents, it is not something you can afford to guess wrong about. As a practicing Geek, I don't plan to get out of Dodge. The cops won't. The fire/emergency/medical folks won't. The utility guys won't. The Guard won't. Could I live with myself if I don't do everything I possibly can to prevent problems those people will risk their lives to fix? We all make our own choices, and I can't criticize folks for choosing Flight over Fight. Just doesn't seem right for me. (Hmmm, there's a song in there somewhere...) "The only thing neccessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" -? When the going gets tough, the tough stay put. I have a neat screensaver on my work PC that diplays the number of BUSINESS days Until The Day. It's a great conversation starter. And it does focus one's attention.... It's an add for Microfocus (who sell remediation tools), but it's free, and it's nicely done. No endorsement intended.

http://www.micro focus.com/year2000/y2ksave.htm

If we all give up, it WILL be a disaster.

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

Lewis, it's going to be a disaster either way. The only question is WHO will be swept away by it. If you are in the city doing your perceived civic duty until the last moment, you are likely to be one of the casualties. But if you have no dependents and a martyr's death suits you, that's your choice.

I personally will not put the lives of my family at stake, however. To each his own, but don't imply that those of us who leave the cities are quitters or cowards for using common sense and taking care of our families first.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

The number of days has absolutely no relevance, unless you're talking about organisations that haven't done anything yet. If completion is scheduled next months and slips to April, that's success.

Would you say it's impossible for every citizen of the world to touch his shoulders on a horizontal surface within the next month, because there are several billion of us and it's a really big number?

Me, I'd call it sleep and anticipate 99.9% compliance within a week!

NB I'm not denying that Y2K is a big problem. I just can't stand innumerate arguments "the number's too big so we're doomed".

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 14, 1999.

Lewis - very noble of you - really - it's your choice. Wait and see what transpires late next year, all those services you're citing will be there?, wait until December '99 and see what the mood of the country is. I have a feeling that things will have changed significantly by then. Don't count for example on the NG abandoning their families if things have taken a bad turn for the worse - same with the rest.

Nigel - come on, pull the other one!

"The number of days has absolutely no relevance"

I beg to differ. I've said before, many entities have vastly underestimated the problem e.g Chevron, GM to name two.

If they had zillions more man hours (i.e. *DAYS* because time is finite to the deadline, as are the supply of experienced programmers) they would complete and test way ahead of rollover. However because there are not enough *WORKING*DAYS* (less than 190) left it is extremely relevant to those companies who risk bankruptcy because they are not going to make it. "Would you say it's impossible for every citizen of the world to touch his shoulders on a horizontal surface within the next month, because there are several billion of us and it's a really big number? Me, I'd call it sleep and anticipate 99.9% compliance within a week!"

Now this "has absolutely no relevance", is idiotic, and is an obvious straw man - Nigel, I'm sure you can do better than that! "NB I'm not denying that Y2K is a big problem. I just can't stand innumerate arguments "the number's too big so we're doomed"."

Ah-ha, now we're getting somewhere, can you say Cognitive Dissonance??? In other words the premise is sound, as is the logic and conclusion, but because the conclusion offends your delicate sesibilities you call my argument "innumerate"? What a load of tosh Nigel.

At no point did I say "we're doomed" - that's your own extrapolation based on my conclusion.

The vast majority of the world's entities having significant problems due to individual failures to meet the deadline or fallout from cascading interdependencies does not mean "we're doomed" necessarily. But it might.

And just for the record neither does TEOTWAWKI mean "we're doomed" either. Look at the last four words and figure it out.

Andy- who has his eyes wide open and is not afraid of the term TEOTWAWKI!

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 14, 1999.

As completely predictable, the usual weigh-ins: "Its too late" versus "Its not too late". Andy, I agree with you completely -- i.e., I think that it is too late and has been for some time now -- but honestly, I would say that anyone who does not see this today, this day, January 14, 1999, will never see it. People have posted on this forum to this effect ("Its never too late!"...), and I honestly am convinced that this argument will continue until January 1, 2000, or TEOTWAWKI, which ever occurs first.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), January 14, 1999.

Lest I be mistaken in a dim light for a Virtuous Person, I shoud clarify my earlier statement.

I'm not getting out of Dodge because I don't live IN Dodge. I just work there. And while 15 miles may not seem far enough away for some, I am surrounded by a farming community and good neighbors.

If I lived IN Dodge.....

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

A, you said:

"Paul N: you can pontificate all you want, but in the end, if enough technical folks like me and Andy haul butt, you'll be the one left holding the bag. That's fair warning. "

True, but the good news is that there are more technicians like me who have both social conscience and professional integrity and will not, as you so elequently put it, "haul butt." And even the majority of self-centered hucksters don't believe the problems are insurmountable, so we are okay on that front as well.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 14, 1999.

Paul N: So you think Ed Yourdon is a "self-centered huckster" and that his advice for city dwelling programmers to relocate is without "social conscience and professional integrity". OK. Glad we have you on record for that.

-- a (a@a.a), January 14, 1999.

I'm beginning to think that serious business remediation will essentially end by the end of October (FEDS a different story). If the bank runs and economic turmoil actually occur, probably 50%-70% of the geek(ette) crowd will likewise be on the move. Thats the reading I get from my circle of contacts in the industry. Then it will be "man the contingency plans (we don't have) time".

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), January 14, 1999.

OK, I'll retract a bit. the number of days is a significant variable in any attempt at statistical analysis. However, there are so many other variables, most of which are unknown, and the nature of the statistics governing societal stability are also unknown, so I don't regard these arguments as useful. The severity and consequences of this event will remain largely unknown right up to 1/1/2000.

That few have yet announced compliance bothers me very little because (1) if the target completion date is April 99, then you don't expect any success story before then; (2) many organisations won't claim compliance even if they are confident, for legal reasons; (3) any organisation that knows it's completely stuffed in less than a year may well lie and claim compliance because it has nothing to lose!

My sentiments are like Arnie's. Prepare to face a big mess. My parents survived WWII; with the usual proviso, Y2K won't be any worse. (The usual proviso is that the power grid remains partly functional. Crippled, maybe, but not irrevocably and totally broken. I'm not going to panic unless Rick Cowles does!)

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 15, 1999.

A, you said:

"Paul N: So you think Ed Yourdon is a "self-centered huckster" and that his advice for city dwelling programmers to relocate is without "social conscience and professional integrity". OK. Glad we have you on record for that. "

In everything from Ed I have read, including several private emails from Ed directly, he has given no such advice. I might have missed something, so you let me know where and I'll take a look. Short of that, doing a thing a recommending a thing are two different things, and the fact that Ed reloacted is his business and his alone. To treat the acts of others as advice is to abdicate your ability to make decisions for yourself. Don't move just because Ed did. Furthermore, if you read the essays he has posted on his site, he mentions that he was in the market for a retirement house away from NYC anyway in order to fulfill long-standing plans. He simply changed the location of that house based on his Y2K concerns. (Besides, I've been to both NYC and Taos. He traded up.)

In addition, as a consultant/lecturer who travels to most of his assignemnts anyway, it doesn't really matter where he lives, does it? Okay, he's a writer too. It really doesn't matter where he parks his word processor, does it? And since he is still out there consulting, writing and lecturing, I dare say that he has not "hauled ass" in the manner you obviously meant (i.e. "I'm gonna stop doing anything and hide in my hole 'till this blows over"). In this site, his book and video, his media appearances and his continued high-profile Y2K consulting work (both as and individual consultant and as chairman of The Cutter Consortium) he continues to demonstrate both social conscience and professional integrity.

Ed and I have corresponded on this very subject. Ed knows me well enough to know that he is not on my list of either "head for the hills" people or "hucksters." In short, you are barking up the wrong tree. Try again.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 15, 1999.

From Y2K Survivalists, Safe Havens, and Bugging Out:

"I do suggest that there are at least three critical questions you should ask when making your decision: What is your first priority -- yourself, your family, your company, your country, or perhaps some other group or entity?

[snip god & country stuff]

Whose responsibility is the current Y2K situation? Whose fault is it that the Y2K remediation effort wasn't begun in 1993 instead of 1998? Whose fault is it that the Y2K effort continues to be behind schedule? Whose fault is it that Congress killed the Y2K emergency appropriations funding in late June?

[snip comments about guilt trip]

What responsibility do you have if you don't get honest, forthright information from your company -- or, for that matter, the appropriate government officials? Your own ability to make an informed safe-haven decision about Y2K may be hampered by the lack of specific information from your CEO/CIO or from government officials who say, "Trust me, everything will be okay"

[skip philosophical questions]

Here are my answers to his three questions:

1. My family.

2. Management.

3. Very little.

Now Paul, you are a somewhat intelligent man. Yourdon has gone on record as saying large cities will resemble Beirut if even a subset of the potential y2k problems materialize. He has gone on record last month as saying that he is "much more pessimistic" about the situation than when he first published his Timebomb book. And Yourdon is pretty much an optimist.

The bottom line Paul, is that at this late date, you have very little evidence to show that some form of Milne's version of events will not come to pass.

-- a (a@a.a), January 15, 1999.

Actually, Ed has gone on record as saying he believes that New York city (the only one he mentioned in particular as he sepnt the last 30 or so years as a resident of the place) might look like "little Beirut" come massive Y2K failures. Certainly one could extrapolate that other major cities would be at risk of the same fate. Of course, you could also take the viewpoint that New York already resembles Beirut in places, so who would be able to tell the difference. Also, it is important to note that Ed has carefully expressed this as his "belief" and not a statement of fact.

As for who you place your loyalties with first, Ed left out a choice in his list. Society. It is my belief that without a decent societal structure, families don't have the chance to be much more than bundles of people who share DNA and live in close proximity. Without the advantages the society as a whole bring, you don't have the time to explore relationships within famlies because you are too busy simply surviving. If we seek to keep the needs of socity in our frame of reference at all times, our famalies cannot help but gain. Everyone has to make their own choice. That is mine.

As for who is responsible for the late start so many people got, well, there is plenty of blame to go around just about every where. To even attempt to label one group as "the" culprits is to oversimplify a complex situation. Besides, does it really matter anymore?

As for responsibilty, each one of us has the same responsibility here that we have always had in every aspect of our lives: Total responsibility for our own actions and none for the actions of others. We can only control what we do and how we react to what others do. We can't base our lives on the actions of others if we ever want to be anything more than creatures of instinct, living always in a reactive mode. I reject the argument that if others are not totally forthcoming or fail to act that I must then also fail to act, or that I must act in a way inconsistent with my own beliefs. It is up to me to do the best I can to act in accordance with my values with what information I can obtain without blaming others or trying to make them responsible for what I do.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 15, 1999.

Lastly, I do have evidence that shows that millions are not very likely to die as a result of Y2K. I will compile a short list and post it. Milne has no evidence whatsoever that millions will certainly die, a position he has often taken.

If you want to start looking for the evindence yourself and are willing to believe it when you see it, start with the following question: "What does it take to kill millions of people?" It takes a hell of a lot, that's what.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 15, 1999.

"If you want to start looking for the evindence yourself and are willing to believe it when you see it, start with the following question: "What does it take to kill millions of people?" It takes a hell of a lot, that's what."

Paul - would love to see your evidence and I really hope it holds up to scrutiny.

As for your statement above - it takes 2 digits to "kill millions of people."

Have you any idea of the state of Agribusiness in the USA alone? How the populations of may countries depend on the USA for grain and seed imports? The breakdown of this segemnt of the infrastructure alone will have dire consequences.

Andy

Two digits. One mechanism. The smallest mistake.

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 15, 1999.

Paul: Although I still feel that you are using weasel words and splitting hairs when it comes to Yourdons "beliefs", I understand where you are coming from in the rest of your post. I have lost a lot of sleep over the situation and am still distraught trying to determine who and what my responsibilities are. Maybe you will be right and society will catalyze around this event and take action sometime in the near (it will have to be very near) future. But try as I may, I just don't see it. I see a disaster of unimaginable proportions exacerbated by crushing government intervention that came too little too late.

Anyway, good luck composing your list, and remember we're all on the same side here, just with different views of how the future will unfold.

-- a (a@a.a), January 16, 1999.