OK, we've all been watching for "barometers" to gauge the general publics response to Y2K. I just got a HUGE one in an e-mail from a friend who does NOT know I am preparing. All of you probably get stories forwarded to you from friends. You know the kind, it comes as an attachment that has been forwarded about 4,000 times. :-) Anyway, this e-mail was about the National Guard mobilization. Included was info. about the Red Cross article and the FEMA article. If the responses I saw were any indication of what is coming, a mass frenzy of buying may be starting NOW!

I also wanted to share a response included in the e-mail that is apparently from a National Guardsman. I found this very interesting and the person seems to know what they are talking about:

"I am a C2 (Command and Control) person with NGB in Wash DC. This is going to happen, they are currently working on the Public Affairs guidance.

On May 1-2, 1999 the National Guard is going to conduct Exercise COMEX/MOBEX. In short this is a nation-wide recall of ALL 480k+ Guardsmen.

This will be simulated COMM-Out, in other words the standard method of recall ie: telephone is not an option. The driver for this exercise is Y2K.

The purpose is to test whether or not the Guard can be recalled with a Mobilization Order (MO) during COMM-Out. The MO in this case will be a simple phrase to determine where the holes in the system are. This will NOT be an actual MO.

Significance

1. The National Guard has NEVER performed a national test of the system. Individual units or States do perform tests of their systems internally, on an annual basis, with standard methods ie: telephone. Each unit has a recall plan with backup system: Radio/Television then house to house. In theory, the system should work.

2. The last time there was full mobilization was 1940 with the National Guard being absorbed by the Army in preparation for WWII.

3. Mobilizing the Guard is big-doings, even thinking about it is big-doings. Parts of the Guard were Mobilized for Berlin Airlift, Korea, Berlin Wall, Pueblo Crisis, Vietnam, Desert Storm and units are rotating through Northern/Southern Watch, Bosnia, Haiti etc, but never the WHOLE thing. When you recall almost a-half-a-million troops that are embedded in every career field expect to disrupt parts of society.

4. The President can only recall 200k and that requires an Executive Order declaring a National Emergency. Full mobilization requires Congressional input.

5. The Guard can be mobilized in one of two ways: Federal and State. When recalled for State status, The Guard falls under the control of the individual Governors and laws of the individual States. When recalled for Federal status, the Army Guard becomes part of the US Army and the Air National Guard becomes part of the USAF. This depends upon the wording of the recall order, they can be used "to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions" (U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 8, Clause 15). Because of the "execute the Laws of the Union" it can be argued that Posse Comitatus does not apply.

Outcome

Logistically, we have a nightmare situation regarding recall. Most Guard units are comprised of personnel that live in a surrounding area of the unit, but that can include crossing State lines. During this exercise I can promise you that the nationwide numbers will be 95%+ personnel contacted and ready to respond. In the Real World a COMM-Out situation compounded with rolling or otherwise brownout/blackout -a 25% attrition rate, for the 72 hour recall period.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

[commentary]

The government is gearing up for a nationwide deployment of troops that we haven't seen since World War II. A national emergency will almost certainly be declared before troops are deployed. The US Constitution will again be hotly debated as the Clinton administration attempts to deploy the National Guard as a "national police force."

But attrition will be high. The predictions above conclude that approximately 25% of the guardsmen will be a no-show. If Y2K turns out to be worse than most people now think, expect that to increase to 50%. That will leave the National Guard with approximately 240,000 troops: just a quarter-million troops. Divide that among the 120 largest cities and you end up with only 2,000 troops *per city*. "Spread too thin" takes on new meaning here. Will the National Guard really have the resources to stop riots? Will they have the resources to actually reach people that need help?

The bottom line here is easy: don't depend on the National Guard to save your a**. Get prepared now. Follow the advice of the American Red Cross and FEMA. Stockpile the supplies you can afford and that you think are necessary."

It will be interesting to see what happens as this e-mail info. spreads.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), January 11, 1999

Answers

Whaamaakaaneezzz! Gayla, THANK YOU. Who needs coffee anymore?!

These insider eMails are good to read. Very glad you're back with us, Gayla; have missed you. Would write more but we're off to the Mill to get, yep, rice & beans & whatever else they've got.

In our CERT/NERT/NET/FEMA class, guess who was there? Yep, employee of the big Mill; they've had to go to three shift, just hired another 14 people. The Mormon cannery in Cascadia in now CLOSED to non-Mormons. They cannot keep up with demand! The emergency supply outfit is hiring like crazy and extending hours.

Off to bulk market, Ashton & Leska in Cascadia, who are sick of shopping and almost out of money, but figure get it while you can

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 11, 1999.

Gayla,

You said you got this in an e-mail, is there a WWW link you know of?

Also, on the radio news this morning I heard that Washington ans Wisconson are planning to mobilize their Natl. Guard troops on Dec 31, 1999. Now, when it hits the RADIO news it's getting out.

Annie

-- Annie O'Dea (tarotmaid@yahoo.com), January 11, 1999.

Here is an article where they interviewed guardsmen. This may be what your email is in reference to.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990111_xex_bad_news_pow. shtml

-- James Chancellor (publicworks1@bluebonnet.net), January 11, 1999.

Thank you Gayla,

That was a very informative letter and totally unbiased, concentrating on the facts and not opinion. I am sure that no one would disagree that just to think about mobilizing a half million trops is a big-doings project. It goes to show that while the federal governemt is taking in the plants from the front porch ther are publicly telling everyoen that there are blue skies in the future. That type of mistrust of the publi's response to a potential emergancy situation is apalling and totally unAmerican. I am not shocked, but as usual, I am once again disspirited by our national leaders and I can only guess as to what the next year might hold for our fragil society.

I will plan to fend to provide for myself accordingly. I will never trust an organization that would even in it's own ranks admit to a possible 25% "no show" rate.

Thanks again for the tip.

-- Adam (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 11, 1999.

Thank you Gayla :

That was a very informative letter and totally unbiased, concentrating on the facts and not opinion. I am sure that no one would disagree that just to think about mobilizing a half million trops is a big-doings project. It goes to show that while the federal governemt is taking in the plants from the front porch ther are publicly telling everyoen that there are blue skies in the future. That type of mistrust of the publi's response to a potential emergancy situation is apalling and totally unAmerican. I am not shocked, but as usual, I am once again disspirited by our national leaders and I can only guess as to what the next year might hold for our fragil society.

I will plan to fend to provide for myself accordingly. I will never trust an organization that would even in it's own ranks admit to a possible 25% "no show" rate.

Thanks again for the tip.

-- Adam S (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 11, 1999.

Must be spooky to recieve something like this from one of those e-mail friends who aren't aware or don't know we are. The worse I got from one of them was a Y2K joke.

I don't know what to think about the panic card anymore. Operation Abascus in Canada, as you know, was well publicised, yet it didn't cause a stir, let alone a panic. Although, my sister a Christmas told me that she let out to a co-worker(in Montreal) that she was going to stockpile and prepare "just in case", to see what the co-worker would say, and that co-worker responded that she was glad she brought that up, and that she too was stockpiling, but keeps quiet about y2k for fear of ridicule.

Granted Canadian mentality is much different than Americans in general, still the fact that both these governments prepare for calamities should send both countries in stockpiling panic, according to my assumptions. If this panic doesn't happen, then I assumed too much of the masses. I went in "panic mode" as soon as I "got it", that is I felt the urgency to start preparing right away. Perhaps, as the example with my sister, people are in individual "panic modes", preparing but not saying anything, and the effects just aren't showing yet. I'm one of those keeping quiet outside the internet.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 11, 1999.

Good Gawd, my mouth is open and my eyes agape...I've just gone to a 6.

Sigh,

-- Sub-Mitt (lurking@ofcourse.com), January 11, 1999.

Gayla, thank you.

Well, this along with the Senate bug and we're in for a big leap in awareness...

I wonder when the panic will start? Will it start or will people submit to their belief that the government would not let this happen?

Mike ====================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 11, 1999.

I just attended a meeting where Micheal Hyatt spoke. The hall holds thousands and it was very full. In the city where it was held, a local tv station took a telephone pole of viewers. 46% said they were preparing. That same station covered the Hyatt meeting and INCLUDED (in addition to other statements from Hyatt) the following statements (perhaps not exact) without further commentary:

Not all the computers will be fixed on time Failures will occur Preparation is the alternative to panic

Effectively, the station advocated preparation. The word is getting out. I listened to the reaction of the audience at the Hyatt meeting. I got the impression that Y2K prep supplies are going to be in harder to find than they were a week ago.

I belong to a Pres. church. (very mainstream) They are going to be handing out Y2K brochures and prep. info. to our entire congregation next week.... word is continuing to spread.

-- Sue (Conibear@gateway.net), January 11, 1999.

Thanks Gayla!!!

You "inspired" me to focus on the government web-sites rather than the preparedness web-sites today.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 11, 1999.

Well, I'll say one thing: Y2K today, January 11, 1999 is not the same theoretical issue it was on November 11, 1998, is it? Think about the way things were just two months ago.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 11, 1999.

At home on my own comp, I have the link to the Nat Guard own site. much of this came from there. I'll post it when I get home. I too got an e-mail from someone quoting this exactly. HMMMMM MMoooooOOOooo! mmmoooOOOOoooooOOOOooo as a friend of all of ours says.

Come to think of it, the link is somewhere on this forum posted in the last 3 days.

I hate doing this from work!!

CR

-- Chuck, working in the snow, night driving (rienzoo@en.com), January 11, 1999.

HI GAYLA,

Nice to see you posting again!

Is awareness entering the upward spiral? I submit the following for your consideration:

Mrs. Deedah was shopping today (strange but true) at the local Target store. Boyoboy was it busy, just like Christmas! Being the curious Y2K aware person that she is, she took the time to surreptitiously check out what everyone was buying. She noticed a lot of people buying two or more of the same items, hair coloring, toothpaste, that sort of thing.

But the big seller of the day was- 36 roll packs of toilet paper!

The kicker- TP was NOT on sale!

AWARENESS GROWS, GO SHOPPING NOW!

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), January 11, 1999.

I have some friends who are in the Guard. I am going to print the articles I have on this subject, show to them and then ask them if they have caught wind of this issue.

It is important to me to verify this. If this deployment is real it raises some real issues with me.

Did I read it right, Mr President must declare an EO before he deploys? Or should I understand that he must get Congressional approval before the exercise? If the latter is true, and should this this deployment story prove valid, we friends are very fortunate to have had the "insider" knowledge as it should be clear that panic buying would surely follow!!!! ww

-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), January 11, 1999.

Chuck, think you wanted the National Guard web-site hotlink:

http:// www.ngb.dtic.mil/y2k/impact.htm

The Yourdon thread National Guard machinations

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000NCQ

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 11, 1999.

Gayla: Hello again, and thanks for the info. You have been missed, and in case you did not see the answer to that question you said you were curious about (son of dust), the answer is Yes. Great to see you post again. Rob.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), January 11, 1999.

You all are very sweet. Thanks! I missed you, too. Uncle Deedah found me on the other forum and his note reminded me of how much I miss the camaraderie of this place!

Do we have any members of the NG on this forum? Lurkers? Here is a URL from the minutes of a November meeting where this exercise was supposedly discussed. You have to be a member to access it. Thanks.

http://wwwnt4.clark.net/ngaus/draftecminutes1198.cfm

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), January 11, 1999.

Rob, I thought so! A watchman for sure!! :-)

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), January 11, 1999.

Whoa, List!

It says, clearly, that there will not be an acutual MO....(Mobilization Order)....The Guard Command only want to know if they can raise their troops when they need to...without the use of telephone.

So much for that.

However.....and I should save the URL's because otherwise you should rightly classify it as rumor....I SAW a post, from the U.S Navy Reserve page, wherein they were advertising for Navy Reserve Captains, and a few commanders to apply for stateside posts to work in liason with FEMA.

I think I saw it on this bulletin board...scroll down...It was from Chris. Diane Squire commented on it. I know you'll listen to her.

My take? As the wife of a retired US Army Warrant, and the mother of a US Army Captain....ok, so they do call out the National Guard, federalize them, and use our soldiers to protect US from the "purples" (as in the latest Weather Report.) Who would you rather see controlling the freeway access into your town...six guys/gals in cammies, who would problably really appreciate a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and a cola, or some drug lord and his goons...without their own provisions, gasoline, and water?

If we truly do have a national emergency, we may need our troops to prevent chaos and anarcy.

Mary G.

-- Mary Phillips (blufrogg@garlic.com), January 11, 1999.

Mary, I think most of us realize this is only a "test." But the point I was trying to make, was that regardless of what actually does or does not occur on May 1st and 2nd, the "public perception" of this e- mail may cause a frenzy of buying. If you knew nothing about Y2K and received this, what would your reaction be?

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), January 11, 1999.

Gayla,

I think you are right....I think there are a number of elements which are causing people who where hitertofor unawares to begin the several stages that go along with awareness of y2k. "Major panic" is one of them. My point in my post was to try to mitigate any fear that a newbee reading these posts might feel when seeing the phrase "martial law." No one finds that phrase particularly enticing, I hope, but I find it slightly more palatable than chaos and total anarchy..which might bring in the guys in blue hats....!!! Mary

-- Mary Phillips (blufrogg@garlic.com), January 12, 1999.

Mary, I agree. I would rather see the NG outside my door than a band of looters any day!

I have a copy of the minutes from the National Guard's Nov. meeting. I will start a new thread with them.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), January 12, 1999.