Why I think TEOTWAWKI won't happen

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I'm currently living and working in NYC as a sysadmin/ webprogrammer, and I really like my life in NY. I've lived in a rent-stabilized apt for many years, have an intresting job, friends, etc.

Since I don't want to "head for the hills" I've been trying to rationalize why I shouldn't. I don't expect Y2K to greatly affect me, but then again I may be in a suicidal denyal, so I'm looking for some feedback to my rationals:

1) By Y2K I will be a couple of months ahead in rent, have gold and silver coins for my savings, at least a month of food, water filters that can deal with the east river, a bicycle and a decent "bug-out" bag. A friend in Westchester has a house with a wood-burning heater/stove, and is also stocking up (I may keep some food there). So if it gets really bad I can do a Snake Pliskin.

2) This society (USA) has traditionally been horrible at planning past the next election, but is really good at dealing with a crisis. Hence, many systems will be able to "go to manual" BUT IN A DIFFERENT FORM than we are thinking of. The "old ways" of manual won't work, but we would come up with a new, maybe semi-manual way of doing things in the interm.

3) Chapter 11 can be a wonderfull thing. I can imagine some changes happening to make it much quicker and easyer to do.

4) Goverment has large stores of oil, gas and cheese. If the roads are clogged with abandoned cars, bulldozers can clear them.

5) Since most americans eat too much anyway, a 1/3 decrease (and this is a semi-informed w.a.g) in food production would actually be benificial.

6) unlike previous times of TEOTWAWKI, we have the tools of books, the scientific method, long distance communications, medicine and mechanical transportation which would preserve TWAWKI.

some possible good aspects of Y2K disruptions:

- months of delays in computer magazine publications may give me a chance to catch up

- welfare/workfare people may get positions that won't displace unionized employees - most politicions replaced in post y2k elections

-- Jay Kusnetz (jayrtfm@hotmail.com), January 08, 1999

Answers

"always fear the unk-unks!" (the "unknown unknowns"...those are the things that cause spacecraft and aircraft to explode) think--embedded chips....lots of unk-unks!

-- ronbanks (phxbanks@webtv.net), January 08, 1999.

Jay, we all hope it won't happen. I am encouraged that as a computer professional you have a "plan". Good luck, and stay out of the South Bronx.

-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), January 08, 1999.

This is a joke... isn't it? I mean, you couldn't possibly be serious! I get it. You are trolling for a Milne reply and gave him the kind of pollyanna bait thats irresisitible.

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), January 08, 1999.

>4) Goverment has large stores of oil,

But those are crude oil stores in underground reservoirs, not yet refined into usable petrochemicals such as gasoline or diesel fuel. AFAIK the feds have never run a full-scale test of their ability to put those crude oil stores to use.

And will the refineries full of highly-computerized equipment be working? If not, what do the bulldozers run on?

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), January 08, 1999.


>>This is a joke... isn't it? I mean, you couldn't possibly be serious! I get it. You are trolling for a Milne reply and gave him the kind of pollyanna bait thats irresisitible.

No Joke, yes I *am* serious. If I was trolling I would not use my real name.

I am here today because for generations when people were planning to kill my ansestors, they ran. My grandmother left Germany in the 30's. Her friends who didn't head the warnings were literally toast.

This is different, cause it's a technology failure, not a lynch mob.

The reply (AFAIK the feds have never run a full-scale test of their ability to put those crude oil stores to use. ) is the sort of info I'm looking for.

Right now I still think of Y2K as similar to riding in a car. If I have an airbag and seatbelt, I'll probably be ok. The chance of getting killed by riding in a car is not worth the inconvienance of NEVER riding in a car and staying away from busy streets. (and I do know what the chances are, since xmas eve I lost a friend to an auto accident).

So... "bug out bag" and stored supplies are my "airbag and seatbelt" but I'm not convinced yet I should never ride again (quit my job, lose my apartment, friends, family and head for the hills).

-- Jay Kusnetz (jayrtfm@hotmail.com), January 08, 1999.



As an independent contractor in NYC in the early 80's I experienced a garbage strike (phew!), transit strike, and an almost NYPD strike (I stayed at home in NJ for that one). None of these were earth trembing occurances but were inconvenient to say the least. I was careful not to get to work too early or stay too late. On many occasions, I stayed over in a hotel to keep from being on the streets late at night. To mininize the risk of physical harm, the company that I contracted with kept apartments close to work for on-call personnel. The Exec VP, actually had an apartment in the building. Its a way life on no one gives it a second thought.

New York City is a scary and dangerous place even in good times. An awarenss of the danger is a constant subconscious effort. The people that have lived and worked in this environment all their lives have nothing to compare it with and think that the rest of the world is scary and dangerous. The security blanket of New Yorkers is the autonomy of the masses. If they find themselves in a situation without the noise, smoke, stench, and wall of people, they become uncomfortable. Kinda like sleeping with the TV on 24 hours a day.

IMHO

MoVe Immediate

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), January 08, 1999.


jay: an interesting post. If you have relatives that you could impose on (mom/dad/sis) that live in a much less populated area, I would highly reccomend that you make plans to relocate there for the duration of the unrest.

Otherwise, check this site or c.s.y2k for Tom Benjamin's posts on surviving in the big city by "squirreling". And make sure your guns are all large bore. :)

-- a (a@a.a), January 08, 1999.


Your plan is a gamble in my view. What if the electricity goes off? What floor are you on? If you are 10 floors up with no power, that is a lot of stairs. If you are on the first floor with 10 floors above you, that is a lot of s---t that could pour into your apartment from the floors above if the power goes off and the sewer system does not pump out the pipes. Will the subways work? How do large quantities of food get delivered to the big cities? Will there be riots due to food shortages? Donald Trump and other owners of major buildings in New York City stand to lose billions if the system collapses, people can not pay rent, job disappear etc. Where will the bulldozers put the cars? Soon the ditches will be full of busted cars with no place to put the recent arrivals. What if martial law is declared? Do you want to take orders from some idiot that does not care what you want to do? I would not risk it. At least move to an area where a garden, water supply etc. are available. If the cities recover, move back there later. Again the embedded problem will be the major cause of breakdowns in electricity etc which will make the other problems look minor by comparison. These could lead to fuel shortages, refinery breakdowns, pipeline failures, power plant failures etc. etc. Arkansaw or Florida may look good about 1 2000.

-- Steve (sfennel@nettally.com), January 08, 1999.

RD, Jay appeared dead serious to me.

Jay, you impressed me. You're an optimist with brains. You're starting to be aware and dealing with all of this. RD is cynical because he's been around here too long ;-) All I can say to you is the same ol' lame answer of "do your research", and read as much as you can in the archives here. I know it's not fun, you don't get to interact instantly, but you'll find all the answers to your current questions, and answers so far given, on stage of preparedness. What you said has been rehashed in some way or other over and over. After that, make up your own mind then join us ;-)

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 08, 1999.


I am planning to move to a very rural area early next year, and wouldn't for anything be stuck in NYC, LA, or any similar locale. But, i feel lucky, in that that was what i was planning to do anyway (not for any militant survivalist :) reasons, but just because that was what i have always wanted to do. Y2K kinda pushed up my plans a bit, but if it doesn't hit bad, i'm still where i wanted to be. If you aren't convinced to head for the hills- and if that's not where you want to be anyway, i'm not convinced you should do it anyway, maybe you could just plan to be away for a, say, 2 week vacation during that period. Have some supplies of your own. If it is bad, you are out of the city, and don't have to worry about whether or not you can even get out. If it is just a 'bump in the road', then you just go back afterwards, fresher and happier, but not having changed your entire lifestyle. Seems a good compromise, if you can figger a place to 'vacation' during that last/first 2-3 weeks.

-- Damian Solorzano (oggy1@webtv.net), January 09, 1999.


"maybe you could just plan to be away for a, say, 2 week vacation during that period."

Good idea Damian, but IMHO at some point next year you will not be able to bug out, martial law will come in as a fait accompli and cities will be locked down.

All evidence points to this, and logic dictates it will happen before rollover.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 09, 1999.


Of course, you are making the presumption that travel will NOT be restricted prior to 1/1/2000. Panic of the masses could ensue prior to the event by days or even weeks thereby creating a need for restricted travel. NYC is a very big place to get out of. I would keep a very close eye on things in the weeks leading up to the event.

-- Goldi (goldilucks@yahoo.com), January 09, 1999.

No, Jaty is not an optimist with brains. optimism is only an approprite response in light of the evidence, The evidence leaves NO room for optimism. Therefore, an optimist with brains, in this case, is an oxymoron, maybe just plain moron.

But, on to Jay.

"I'm currently living and working in NYC as a sysadmin/ webprogrammer, and I really like my life in NY. I've lived in a rent- stabilized apt for many years, have an intresting job, friends, etc.'

Nice to know but irrelevant. Except for the fact that it does tell us that he is very pleased with things around him. That tells me first off that he is in an abject fantasy land devoid of reality. I am not saying that I am not glad he is happy. But if you look out the window and pull the blinfold off and see what is really going on, you would realize that you are in big big trouble.

"Since I don't want to "head for the hills" I've been trying to rationalize why I shouldn't. "

I can just about stop right here. Maybe it was a bad choice of words on his part but think that 'rationalize' very well covers his thinking.

Nothing following this point even deserves a reponse. It would be like trying to teach a pig to sing. First of all it can't be done and second, it only annoys the pig.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), January 09, 1999.


The building may be vacated to prevent fire deaths you may not have enough food because it may last 6 months. Water is a problem you have to walk to get it at the east river who will meet you on the walk back and how cold will it be? New York eats how much food every day? Semi trucks bring in food and everything about 800 trucks every day these trucks burn fuel these trucks will not come in because during normal times it is dangerous. How many of these trucks must make the trip across the country from California and how much more will it cost to ship this food? Will the states that the cargo passes through need it for their people. N.Y. City is dependent no the outside world it is an island. I have ben there many times people will kill you for a place to park! If people have no water or food they will step over your dead body to get it they will not care. Remember the L. A. riots! Dead bodies will be everywhere the people that run the city will be helpless to act. After a week or two the cops and firemen who have not ben paid will leave the city. What is more important New York City ro the farm land that grows the food without the farm land the country will die all the help will go to the farms N.Y. will be alowed to burn without Wall Street what american will say save that big nasty city? Only the people who live there if their any left.

-- Bubba (Badhabbit@water.com), January 09, 1999.

Okay Jay, I apologize. But your post doesn't match the title "Why I think TEOTWAWKI won't happen". Let me take your statements one at a time.

I'm currently living and working in NYC as a sysadmin/ webprogrammer, and I really like my life in NY. I've lived in a rent-stabilized apt for many years, have an intresting job, friends, etc.

So you've been there a lot of years. New York's 'life' is sustained by a highly complex chain of life support supplies from outside the city. Imagine just 72 hours of no power, no heat, no phone & water pressure failure. What does the city look like at the end of 72 hours? Would you like to walk out of New York City? What odds are you willing to bet your life on? Lets say its 100 to 1, there will not be an infrastructure failure. Would you get on an airplane (free ticket to anywhere in the world) if I told you there was a 1% chance of a bomb on board? Right now, even the squishy pollyannas (Yardeni, Bennett etc) sat they expect "some localized" brownouts and blackouts. IMHO, residing in a major urban area is tantamount to playing Russian roulette without knowing if there is 0 bullets in the cylinder or 6.

Since I don't want to "head for the hills" I've been trying to rationalize why I shouldn't. I don't expect Y2K to greatly affect me, but then again I may be in a suicidal denyal, so I'm looking for some feedback to my rationals:

In other words your fleshy comforts are so seductive as to distort your reasoning and now you want someone to tell you everything is going to be fine.

1) By Y2K I will be a couple of months ahead in rent, have gold and silver coins for my savings, at least a month of food, water filters that can deal with the east river, a bicycle and a decent "bug-out" bag. A friend in Westchester has a house with a wood-burning heater/stove, and is also stocking up (I may keep some food there). So if it gets really bad I can do a Snake Pliskin.

If it gets really bad, you are not going to be able to get to Westchester. So you think you can be Snake? Can you shoot a .45 with either hand? How are your personal combat skills in general? Tangle with a nasty caffe latte lately? If it gets bad, the Feds already have containment plans for keeping the hordes in the city. This what I meant by your post title not matching your content. You talk about a "bugout bag" and Snake without any visualization of what the environment would be like. Either leave before Rollover or plan on not leaving at all.

2) This society (USA) has traditionally been horrible at planning past the next election, but is really good at dealing with a crisis. Hence, many systems will be able to "go to manual" BUT IN A DIFFERENT FORM than we are thinking of. The "old ways" of manual won't work, but we would come up with a new, maybe semi-manual way of doing things in the interm.

Oh please... Name one "crisis" of national scope that we have successfully dealt with since WWII. Desert Storm? Last I looked Saddam is still a threat. Cuba? The Bay of Pigs was a disaster and the missile crisis was a result of Kennedy having bigger cajones (and a lot more missiles) than Khruschev. Localized disaster response (Calif earthquakes, Florida hurricanes) have been just that...localized. Lots of external help. As for the "manual" argument, how exactly are your webpage based businesses going to go manual? How does GM or Ford run their assembly lines without the automated robotics? How does any telecommunications company run on manual if a significant part of the comm lines and satellites are down? How do banks which require computer links for their tellers run manually? How does air traffic control work nationally if the regional mainframes are down (good bet at this point)? Face it, large portions of our economy are totally and irrevocably committed to a cyber framework. Lastly, just for kicks, lets assume that in the USA Y2K is a minor bump. However, lets leave the rest of the world on its present course. What happens to our economy when Japan, Brazil and most of Europe collapse?

3) Chapter 11 can be a wonderfull thing. I can imagine some changes happening to make it much quicker and easyer to do.

Bankruptcy is a wonderful thing? Is this personal experience? Listen my friend. You are very likely to lose that cushy web/sysadmin job in the next 12-16 months even if the power stays on! A lot of companys are going to go belly up even by the pollyanna government estimates of the GAO.

4) Goverment has large stores of oil, gas and cheese. If the roads are clogged with abandoned cars, bulldozers can clear them.

Depends what you mean by large. They have somewhere between 90 and 180 days of crude oil if they can get it out of the storage domes. And how exactly are you going to transport and refine the crude oil? They do not have stores of gasoline beyond normal storage at government bases like military installations. As for cheese, uhh lets just say there is no national contingency for cheese distribution to avoid starvation. As for the bulldozer clears cars idea, thats just plain fantasy. Imagine thousands of cars for tens of miles each being crunched by a dozer and pushed to the side. So now you have huge mounds of metal leaking gasoline and oil. Can you say fire?

5) Since most americans eat too much anyway, a 1/3 decrease (and this is a semi-informed w.a.g) in food production would actually be benificial.

So your position is that hunger is good. Its not just food production. Its the whole supply chain to get the food to the customer. Right now, you are totally dependent on that tractor trailer resupplying your grocery store/restaurant/coffee shop every couple days. Have you ever been hungry Jay? I mean, no food for say 2 days. It changes people and NOT for the better.(Yes, all you fasting types, it can be good under the right circumstances but panic/winter Y2K is NOT the time!)

6) unlike previous times of TEOTWAWKI, we have the tools of books, the scientific method, long distance communications, medicine and mechanical transportation which would preserve TWAWKI.

Wrong. Dead wrong. Dead foolish, wishful thinking, poor analysis, New York psychotech babblespeak wrong. This is about losing communications, losing the coordination of mechanical transportation that is critical to maintaining the cities, losing the hi tech hospitals which require power and communications and data movement. The books and scientific method are tools for reviving (maybe)our technical culture and lifestyle. In the short run, neither of these are in a position to prevent the massive potential failures.

some possible good aspects of Y2K disruptions: - months of delays in computer magazine publications may give me a chance to catch up

Inanity compounded.

- welfare/workfare people may get positions that won't displace unionized employees - most politicions replaced in post y2k elections

Are you referring to the British plan to retrain welfare types to be programmers? Last I looked, it was a complete bust. The only solution to the welfare culture is to end it. Abruptly. Work or starve.



-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), January 09, 1999.


RD... couldn't have said it better myself. This one is a keeper - respect.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 09, 1999.

"No, Jaty is not an optimist with brains. optimism is only an approprite response in light of the evidence, The evidence leaves NO room for optimism. Therefore, an optimist with brains, in this case, is an oxymoron, maybe just plain moron. " --Milne

Jay's post is intelligent for someone still in denial and who appears to not have all the facts yet. Denial is a healthy first response. It forces us to dig hard for the facts trying to "rationalize". Because he's intelligent, eventually it will hit him full force what he needs to do, if he cares enough.

Paul, my point of view in this case is that it is you the moron.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 09, 1999.


Jay

Pile-on time.

Pre-paid rent?? Pre-paid? Are you that sick? I wish I could reach out and slap you. (hard) Wassa matta U? R U daft? Good god man I can see it now:

Jay: SHIT! I wish I had spent my money on preps, instead of pissing it away on pre-paying my rent on an apartment that burnt down!

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), January 09, 1999.


Don't listen to Milne, Jay. What a jerk!

-- anybody (lurker@...), January 09, 1999.

Gonna go all the way "upstate" to a friend's place in Westchester. Woooo-wheee! Must be a good twenty or thirty miles to that far-away place.

Jay, you really need to re-think your plans. But get out of the city- think mindset before you do. It's seriously warped your sense of distances.

I suggest you do some reasearch on how far a human can travel on foot in one day. Then multiply by at least three to come up with a minimum safe distance from that many potentially cold, hungry, thirsty, kill- you-for-what-you've-got, desparately panic-stricken, human animals.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 09, 1999.


Jay:

WESTCHESTER COUNTY is hardly rural, or even low population density. Try Oneida County, Herkimer County, at least if not St. Lawrence county. Upstate does NOT start at the frigin' bridge. You will want to AT LEAST cross the Mohawk River. And NOT in the Lake Goerge area either. Or get west to the Southern Tier, but NOT close to Binghamton, or the tri-Cities.

cr grew up in a small town south of Utica and went to school in Potsdam.

-- Chuck, night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 09, 1999.


Jay,

You live in NYC with the lights on. Really contemplate it with the lights off. For weeks, maybe months. Think no water. Think high- rise fire. Think no where to run, no where to hide.

Is that where you want to "live" or just hide out, merely existing?

IMHO, pick a place where you can create a new life. A friendly community is a good Y2K bet.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 09, 1999.


Say, Jay, I've just got one question for you. If you aren't sure when(or if) you'll be able to get more food, would you trade some of your food for some heavy, shiny metal you couldn't eat?

-- Noah Simoneaux (noaj@yournet.com), January 10, 1999.

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