Approaching retirement age, I have done a lot of money-shifting due to Y2K fears. I have recently invested some mutual fund monies into a government securities portfolio. Also invested non-IRA money into 2 year T-Bonds. Do you think the T-Bonds and government securities will be secure in the event of financial failures?

-- Phyllis Hunt (bobphyllis@niia.net), January 02, 1999

Answers

Good question Phyllis. Regarding the government securities portfolio, if you have a choice in the matter, keep maturities as short as possible since there is so much uncertainty. I would not go more than two years, but thats just me. Also keep in mind that T-Bills can be turned into long bonds (30 years) by simple government decree. (I do not know about T-notes, but assume the same).

First and foremost, nothing , no investment, is absolutely safe. Period. Government securities, of all paper denominated assets are the safest since the Feds can always print money, and they have the power of usurpation (taxes). So, the only scenario where the safety of government securities comes into question is when we talk about a complete default. This is possible, and some feel likely. Nobody knows.

So, assuming you have done most of your Y2K prep and have some "real money" (gold/silver), you can feel comfortable with keeping some of what is left in short term highest-quality government paper, always being aware of the caveats I just discussed above. Always remember to diversify, especially since Nothing is absolutely safe.

p.s. A can of Spam will always be worth a can of Spam.

Hope this helps, Rob.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), January 02, 1999.

Phyl,

You may want to check out a few of these threads before taking any investment advice from this crowd. Just a tip.

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), January 02, 1999.

Difficult to say Phyllis, depends on the extent of the failure - my own gut feeling is "no".

Here are a couple of links worth checking out:-

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/results_.cfm/Stock_Market

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/results_.cfm/Banking

Also you might want to consider the following advice - but make up your own mind...

I would give a link but I don't have one - this is pretty long, again, make your own mind up on this, Gary North is not necessarily correct...

SURVIVING ALL 3 STAGES OF A COMPLETE FLIGHT TO CASH

I decided to write this as a commentary on an article by Martin A. Armstrong. It was posted on this site:

http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/LEVERAGE.HTM

The author believes that we have entered the final stage of a global liquidity crisis. I think he is far too optimistic. We have entered the preliminary phase of a three-stage global liquidity crisis.

What is liquidity? It is a combination of three factors: (1) the ability to sell an item with a low commission or none; (2) the ability to sell it without advertising expenses; (3) the ability to sell it immediately. The ultimate form of liquidity is cash. We sell cash to buy goods.

Here is a rule: cash earns no interest. We buy maximum liquidity by forfeiting interest income. If any asset pays interest, it is not cash. It is a near-cash asset.

What is leverage? It is the ratio between the assets on hand to pay obligations and existing promises to pay.

The concept of cash is far more complicated than Mr. Armstrong says in his essay. So is the concept of a promise to pay. Today, most cash and most promises to pay are electronic. They are computerized entries. Therein lies the problem.

LEVERAGE IS A TWO-WAY STREET

To understand leverage -- assets on hand in relation to promises to pay -- let us look at the commodity futures market, the stock market, and banking.

COMMODITY FUTURES

If I enter a commodity futures contract and promise to deliver a 100-ounce bar of gold bullion that today is worth, say, $30,000, I may have to make a down payment of only $3,000 as earnest money (10% margin). A more conservative position would be $6,000 (20% margin).

If I put down 10%, and I agree to deliver that bullion in six months to someone who agrees to pay me $30,000 at the time of delivery, and the price of gold goes to $330 per ounce, I will have to pay someone $33,000 to buy that bar and ship it to the buyer on the closing day. I have invested $3,000, and now it's gone. Of course, the commodity broker would call me and tell me to put up another $3,000 or he will sell the contract today. I would then get nothing back on my $3,000. If it moves to $350 in one jump, I would owe my broker $2,000. I would be in the hole $5,000 ($3,000 + $2,000).

But if the price of gold falls to $270, I'm now $3,000 ahead. Someone has agreed to pay me $30,000 for a bar of gold now worth $27,000. I have made 100% on my $3,000 investment. I can sell the contract now and get $3,000. Or I can hold on and see if gold goes even lower.

When you're highly leveraged (low down payment/earnest money), you can win big or lose big very fast. Long-Term Capital Management guessed wrong. It was leveraged at 20 to one (5% down). It lost big -- so big that the banks that were foolish enough to lend money for the deals had to put up another $3.5 billion in order to stop a crisis sell- off of the fund's assets, which would have bankrupted it, leaving the banks with partial payments or none. The banks are in quicksand. How quick? The markets will tell them, and the bankers may or may not tell the public.

STOCKS

The stock market is leveraged in a different way. If I can get 4% interest for one year at my bank, a $1,000 investment will earn me $40.

To get $40 income from dividends in a stock that pays 2% in dividends (which it does these days), I have to invest $4,000. But it's risky. The stock's price could fall. But it could go up, too. I'm giving up the $80 income I could have earned from my bank (.04 x $2,000) in order to buy a stock. So, I can get $80 a year with far less risk at my bank. I obviously expect the stock's market value to go up by more than $40, plus the $40 dividend, which may or may not be paid.

But if I decide that the stock's prices will fall, I will sell, so as to preserve my capital.

Where is the leverage? Primarily, in the stock's imputed value. The total value of a company's shares is the number of shares multiplied by the price per share of the last share bought that day. If there are 100 million shares of stock, and the last share bought was $10, then the market value of the shares is 100 million times $10, or $1 billion.

If the share price of that last share falls to $9, then the value of the company's shares is $900 million. All shareholders experience a loss based on the fall of price in that last share sold.

If dividends are closely related to share price, then a fall in dividends, unless matched by a rise in expectations about future gains, will depress the price of all the company's shares. If the company pays 20 cents a year per share (2%), and this has sustained a $10 per share price, then a fall to 10 cents will drop the share price to $5. Now the value of all the shares is $500 million. In other words, a fall in the dividend from 20 cents to 10 cents creates a loss of shareholder equity of $500 million. That's leverage.

Then there is margin: bank loans made to buy shares. People can borrow $5 to buy a $10 share. If the share price falls, the lender calls the shareholder and asks him to put up more money to compensate for the fall in price, or else the bank will sell the share. If enough shareholders decide not to come up with more money, the lending banks or brokerage houses will sell the shares. This forces down the price of the shares, meaning that the imputed value of all shares falls. This is leverage.

So, when investors want cash, they sell assets. They seek safety. When there are margin calls and forced sales, the leverage factor goes against shareholders. It's nice going up; it's bad going down. The greater the demand for money, the more threatening any prior leverage becomes.

When too many of those who have promised to pay default, the demand for cash rises as fear spreads.

BANKING

This is the truly awesome form of leverage. A modern bank promises to pay a depositor all of his money on demand. But money, legally, is legal tender: paper currency or token metal coins. The depositor can legally ask for currency. The problem is, for every $100 in deposits -- electronic promises to pay on demand -- the U.S. banking system has only $1.17 in currency.

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2694

Now, this is leverage. None of this mamby-pamby hedge fund leverage of 20 to 1. No sir, this is the big time: almost 100 to one.

That's the problem. It's going to become a much bigger problem in the next 14 months.

WHAT IS CASH?

Today, what is called cash is only rarely cash. It's a fiduciary instrument issued by an institution (bank) that promises to pay money on demand. It also pays interest. So, it is not cash. Cash pays no interest. We forfeit interest income in order to buy maximum liquidity.

An economist who understands economics defines money as the most marketable commodity. But money is legally defined by the government as "legal tender," which is a piece of paper or a coin issued by a central bank under the authority of a national government. By law, the creditor must accept payment by the debtor in legal tender money. This means currency.

We have already seen the degree of leverage in banking: almost 100 to one.

Then there is another layer of leverage on top of bank promises: money market funds. Money market funds do not promise to return the capital invested. The funds pay interest to the investors. The funds loan out the money to businesses or governments. The borrowers are considered credit-worthy. They are expected to pay their interest on time. Usually, they do.

By tradition, money market funds lock in the par value of a share at $1. There is no guarantee that this par value will be maintained. For over two decades, it has been maintained. So, an illusion of money market shares as a substitute for cash has been created by the industry. But these assets are not cash. To get cash, the investor must do the following:

1. Call the money market fund to have it mail a check or wire the money. OR. . .

2. Write a check to his bank, in which case his bank collects the electronic money from the money market fund.

3. Ask the bank for currency.

Currency is legal tender, i.e., cash. Anything else that is called cash is an misnomer -- a hope, not a fact, a promise, not a sure reality. It is an illusion based on a tradition of promises to pay that have been honored faithfully in the past. But what about the future? What if the computers go blind or haywire? What if electricity shuts down? What if money market investors and bank depositors believe that these two threats are real? What if too many people demand currency? We are dealing with leverage here: promises to pay in relation to the cash on hand to redeem these promises.

For most people, it takes several steps to get access to cash. In addition to the previous three steps, there is usually a preliminary step:

Call a stock market mutual fund and tell the agent to sell shares and deposit the money in the family of funds' money market fund.

There is at least one phone call involved in most moves into cash, beginning with the sale of shares in a stock market mutual fund. If the phone lines are busy, the transaction cannot be made.

In a stock market meltdown, the phone lines will be busy until the sell-off stage is over.

Also, the stock market mutual fund may have an "in kind" clause that allows it to send you the shares' certificates rather than a check. This will take weeks or months to get to you. In the meantime, the stock market may have melted down completely. Read your prospectus and any supplemental "on request" prospectus very carefully to see if there is an "in kind" clause.

So, as Forrest Gump's mother might have said, "Cash is as cash does." If someone will accept your money in exchange for goods and services, it's cash. But if conditions change, what you today think is cash may not be cash. Few investors think about this.

In most cases, whatever functions as cash relies on phone lines and computers. If electricity goes off, or if the phone lines shut down, or if the computers shut down, almost all that is called cash today will cease to be cash.

This is why there are at least three stages in the flight to liquidity, i.e., the rush to get cash.

1. Meltdown. Stock market sales as people get assets converted into money market "cash." (This is usually accompanied by a rush to buy bonds, but this investment strategy will create a subsequent rush to sell bonds and to get into money market funds, T-bills, or banks.)

2. Bank run. The rush to get currency from banks, leading to the rationing of cash withdrawals. (This will be accompanied by a sell-off of money market funds and bonds to get assets into the banks.)

3. Shutdown. The collapse of fractional reserve banking, leaving only currency.

These stages can overlap, which makes things even more confusing.

STAGE ONE

We are now into stage one: the sell-off of stocks and highly leveraged currency futures to get into near-cash assets, mainly money market funds and T-bills. There is also a move into bonds, which promise a fixed payout, a promise that will be fulfilled only if

1. the organization issuing the bonds stays solvent;

2. the computers stay up;

3. the banks stay up.

In the rush for guaranteed interest payments, all assets can fall in price: stocks, commodities, real estate. Anything that has a price that is imputed and then multiplied by the quantity of the asset can and probably will fall in price. As each unit falls in price as owners seek to exchange them for near-cash assets, the new price is imputed to the entire quantity. The stock market averages fall, commodity prices fall, and all but uniquely positioned real estate properties fall.

This includes the precious metals, unless buyers expect precious metals to serve as currency, which most investors do not believe yet. They will believe it, but not until

1. y2k is seen as threatening all other forms of cash except paper money and coins, and

2. it becomes impossible to get currency and coins out of banks.

This, I think, will take place in the second half of 1999. But when it does, very few people will be able to buy precious metal coins because

1. governments will quit minting gold coins;

2. the phone lines of coin dealers will be busy.

In stage one, we will see prices of almost all investment assets fall. The only way to make money will be to go into bonds (most of the gains are behind us) or sell short stocks. I recommend the latter strategy. Two funds do this for you: Ursa and BearX. The Ursa fund of the Rydex family of funds requires a $25,000 minimum purchase (1-800-820-0888). BearX is $2,000 (1-888-778-2327).

The biggest risk here is that you will stay too long in your money market fund or your short fund. If there is a complete stock market meltdown, the markets will be closed by law or by free market forces. Those people who have promised to pay will default. On paper, you may be making money, but these are paper returns based on promises to pay. The worse the meltdown, the more the defaults. You may not be able to get your money out at the bottom. Get out in steps.

Ultimately, there is no safe, easy way to hedge yourself electronically against widespread defaults by debtors. There is no way to hedge yourself electronically against a complete computer shutdown.

So, to escape stage one's personal liquidity crunch, you must be in near-cash assets or currency itself. You should not own anything except

1. near cash assets or currency, or

2. bonds, or

3. short positions.

This means no real estate, no gold, no silver, no stocks.

But that's too risky. No real estate at all? What about a survival property? You will need that for stage three. But what if you can't find anyone to sell you the property you want in late 1999? Besides, it will take a year to develop such a property. You will run out of time if you wait. Your money buys you time.

Conclusion: you must put money into an asset whose money price will probably fall between now and the final quarter of 1999.

The same is true of gold coins and silver coins. You hold them now for the same reason that you own a survival property: you may not be able to buy them in the y2k panic of late 1999.

But do not buy real estate or precious metal coins on the assumption that you will sell them at a profit in 1999. Anything that you think you will sell in 1999 should be sold soon -- January 4, 1999 if you're worried about capital gains taxes in 1999. Use the money to short the stock market.

Gold might go up in early 1999 if there is a rush to post-1999 money by investors who are afraid of the banks. It's a thin market. The gold coin market is a much thinner market. Because gold is known by older central bankers as the ultimate reserve, it may resist the downward pressure on other commodities. But we have a generation of central bankers who do not understand gold-based money. They may not defend their banks' solvency by buying gold. They may even sell it for political reasons. Don't assume that gold bullion will go up in early 1999. I would imagine that it is more likely to go up in phase one of stage three than in stage one.

Do not buy gold stocks. Do not buy numismatic coins. Buy bullion gold coins, small weights: tenth-ounce. You want the maximum number of transactions per dollar spent now.

Expect their dollar price to go down until late 1999. That is the price you must pay to get them now. You may prefer to buy them over time, as the price goes down. That's all right if you have enough coins for 2000- survival. Keep selling your bear stock funds in 1999 to buy coins.

Alternatively, you can buy the coins now and sell short gold bullion and silver bullion. Use a commodities broker to do this for you. Put at least 20% down (margin). This locks in your gold or silver price. You aren't trying to make money by selling the metals short. You are trying to lock in the present market value of your gold coins. If your coins fall in value, your commodity futures contracts will be making money. They should offset. You are using the commodities market to hedge the value of your coins. Use the profits to buy more coins. Take delivery of the coins. Always.

STAGE TWO

This will begin in 1999, probably by early summer. The depression will be here. Unemployment will be rising to double-digit levels. Companies will be going bankrupt. The slowdown will be worldwide. Stock markets will be at half their present value or less. Fear -- paralyzing fear -- will be spreading.

At that point, people in the U.S. will begin to move from money market funds and bond funds into FDIC-insured banks. The goal: safety of capital. Some money market funds will be faced with a crisis: not enough liquidity. They will fall below par value price of $1 per share. The public will learn that no government agency insures this par value.

This will be a move to quality: money markets to FDIC- insured banks.

Simultaneously, there will be a move to liquidity: currency rather than the banks' electronic promises to pay. A worldwide bank run will begin.

Bank runs will accelerate the sell-off in stocks. Panic will spread.

A meltdown in the stock markets will take place. This could happen at any time. I am saying that it will happen no later than summer, 1999.

This will be marked by a new definition of cash: currency. Electronic promises to pay will become suspect. This stage will overlap stage three: the y2k panic.

STAGE THREE

This is the y2k panic stage. In the midst of lost dreams and broken promises, the public will wake up to the fact that the greatest default in history will hit in 2000. All electronic promises to pay will die. This includes Social Security, Medicare, bank insurance, life insurance, health insurance, fire insurance -- all of it.

This realization will accelerate the run on the banks. If the banks do not start rationing currency withdrawals in stage two, they surely will in stage three.

This is the final move to liquidity. It will be massive. It will be a move from fiduciary money to true cash. It will wipe out a century of promises and three centuries of tradition.

We will see the end of fractional reserve banking. Banks will begin collapsing before 2000. They will all be gone by 2001.

Currency will appreciate as never in history. I think 20 to one is conservative. It may be 100 to one. All money contracts will be broken. No one will be able to repay in 2000.

If electricity fails, as I expect, then the division of labor will go back to the mid-1800's, if things go well. Without a money system, there cannot be a division of labor beyond agricultural face-to-face exchange.

The wealth of nations will disappear. What Adam Smith described in Chapter 1 of his book will be reversed. The pin-makers will lose access to their machines. There will be no pin-making craftsmen to replace the machines.

Do I mean this literally? Do I think women should be buying pins? Yes. Needles, too. You must prepared for a 150-year reversal of the division of labor.

PHASE ONE

Phase one will begin no later than the fall of 1999. It will be the rush into survival goods, which are produced by cottage industries. Supply lines will jam up.

That's why I think 1998-1999 will be the last year to buy winter clothing and goods. Buy them now.

Enough people (5% to 10%) of the nation will see that y2k is life-threatening. Also, the day that people are told that they cannot get currency out of their banks, they will stop saving money. They will write checks to buy durable goods. They will run their credit cards to the limit. "Why not? They'll lose all the records in 2000."

********* This will destroy the bond market and mortgage markets. ********* (Andy) There will be no long-term credit markets by December 31, 1999. No one will loan money when they think that the records will die in 2000. They will not become creditors in a collapsing money market. They will cease lending.

So, the credit market will be hit from both sides: massive consumer borrowing and no long-term institutional lending. Corporate borrowing will be cut way back.

The switch from fiduciary money (debt-based) to currency will complete the destruction of the modern economy, which is tied to debt. The threat of the failure of computers will undermine people's confidence in fiduciary money.

The greed factor -- "I won't have to pay back my debts!" -- will combine with the fear factor -- "No one will pay back the loans I've made!" -- to produce the destruction of the world economy.

Almost everyone will want to be a borrower. Almost no one will want to be a lender. That will destroy the credit markets, which are in fact the money markets.

The monetization of everything, 1900 to 1999, will become the de-monetization of everything, 1999-2001.

PHASE TWO

This will begin in January, 2000. The computers will have shut down, taking with them the social division of labor. Almost no one will have money.

Cash will be king, but what will serve as cash? Answer: anything that people are familiar with as currency, meaning today's fiat paper money and token coins. Fiat money is real money if the government isn't printing any more of it. Without electricity, fiat money production will cease.

Could we see a 1 for 100 price deflation? Yes, for we could see a 1 for 100 monetary deflation. If electrical power goes off and stays off, we will see this. There will be no electronic money. M-3 plus liquid assets will fall from $7 trillion to zero, literally overnight. The velocity of money will collapse. There will be no banks. Few people will have currency. Money transactions will simply cease for most people in most situations. Barter will replace money. Barter is inefficient. Tens of millions of people will die in the United States if they are without electricity or money. Communities will have to invent new forms of money, new forms of liquidity: bullets, cigarettes, sugar, property tax IOU's, or whatever creative people can come up with. Meanwhile, today's familiar currencies will function: paper bills and token coins. In a world with no electronic money, today's fiat currency will serve as money.

If electrical power stays up, which does not look likely, bank computers will still be scrambled. It will take many years to get back to manual check-clearing systems. The volume of transactions will shrink dramatically. Costs per transaction will rise. Meanwhile, the division of labor will contract. Unemployment will get into the mid-double digits. A 1 for 3 or 1 for 5 deflation then is more likely than 1 for 100. Bank accounts will not be credited with deposits for weeks until checks clear. Most banks will go under. It will take years for most people to trust them again. Some people never will.

If credit/debit cards survive, the worst of the collapse will be mitigated. We will suffer a depression, but not the collapse of civilization. If the phones stay up, Internet banking will appear. This will do more to revive the economy than anything else. Gold and silver accounts will appear. Some may be 100% reserves; you will pay for having the privilege of storing your wealth and using it for transactions. Remember: you cannot be paid interest on cash. If you can draw your money out on demand, then the bank cannot loan it out.

If the Internet survives, the economic recovery will be much faster: years rather than decades. But the Internet will create great economic and social barriers between those with access to it and those without. An enormous transfer of wealth will take place: from those without Internet skills to those who posserss them.

If the Internet does not stay up, the reverse flow will take place: from the technically skilled to the rurally skilled. It will move from Schwartz and Wong to Bubba. In the long run, IQ counts for more than brawn. In the short run, food counts more than IQ. The Bell curve will shift dramatically to the left if the power goes off.

I hope the power stays up. I hope the phone lines do, too. But I do not believe that the banking system can survive in anything like its present form. It will crash in a wave of bankruptcies (bank + rupture), and it will take with it much of the modern social division of labor.

The international banking fraternity believes that they can create a one-world currency run by a single central bank. That dream is about to shatter as surely as the dream of the Tower of Babel was shattered (Genesis 11). Man proposes, but God disposes. He is going to dispose of the New World Order crowd, who have bet their lives and dreams on electronic promises to pay. Don't bet yours.

What about gold and silver coins? Gold coins will not be readily recognized. Silver coins may have no higher value than the face value of today's token (clad) coins. It depends on how desperate people become, and how knowledgeable they are about precious metals. People do not today recognize gold and silver as money. There will be no developed markets in 2000 that tell people how much that gold and silver are worth compared to dollars.

Everything will be negotiable. There will be widespread ignorance, and therefore huge selling fees (commissions).

At that point, do not be in the markets at all. Be outside them. Be self-sufficient. Do not let people know that you have cash. Wait. Live off your stored goods. Stay out of the markets. Do not attract attention.

If you get a very good cash-price deal on some item, fine. Pay cash. But I recommend doing as little trading as possible. If you must trade, do it with goods. Toilet paper will be a good barter item. So will white sugar and coffee.

You do not want to attract envy. Do not let people know you have valuable stuff stored. Set up trades several days before. Let people think that you have to go through a chain of exchanges to get whatever they want.

PHASE THREE

This is the recovery phase. It may not begin locally in your area until 2002. It may not begin for a decade regionally. It depends on electrical power. If the power goes off, we will not live to see the return of the world we will have lost. It took over a century to build it. The general technolofical knowledge will not all be lost, but the capital will be. It will take decades to train up people who can apply all of today's knowledge and others who can and will finance it. Ideas are cheap; capital is dear. Entrepreneurship is dearer still. Entrepreneurship will be a scarce commodity in a world filled with emotionally devastated people.

But for those people with hope, capital, forecasting skills, and access to good libraries, the new world will be a place of historically unprecedented opportunity. It will be a world ideal for creative little people. If property rights are maintained, it will be a world for risk-takers.

The revival of markets for gold and silver will begin in phase two, but unless you can get a very good deal as a buyer of precious metals for cash, stay out of these markets until phase three. Do not be a seller of precious metals until phase three. In phase three, I would suggest buying real estate.

I think real estate is where the post-recovery economic future is. When people want to move, they will not have a developed mortgage market to finance their sale. They will have to take horrendous paper losses on their real estate. The move from fiduciary money to currency will destroy today's real estate prices. Meanwhile, a shutdown of water and power will destroy many properties' comparative value. A two-bedroom 1927 house with a shallow water well in a small town will be worth more than today's $10 million dollar condo in New York City if electrical power goes off in both places for 60 days.

In 2001 or 2002, sellers will learn that today's prices are gone forever. At that point, they will begin to negotiate seriously. This is where currency, gold coins, and silver coins will be valuable. Until sellers learn the reality of the new conditions, don't be a buyer. Save your currency for the day of realization. When you can buy today's $200,000 home for $2,000 cash, or $3,000 at 3% per annum, with 20 years to pay, think about buying. But there will be another bargain tomorrow. Don't be in a hurry.

Unless you know that you are getting a spectacular deal on some item, don't spend your currency. I think it will take at least a year and probably two or three years for the new economic reality to begin to motivate sellers. Buy only from highly motivated sellers.

I believe that it will take starvation conditions for people to realize that a price level based only on cash is far lower than anything we have seen in a century. People will resist the fact that their $200,000 homes are worth, say, $2,000, or that their labor is worth only 20 cents an hour. They will think that things will get better, that this is a temporary situation. If electricity goes off for longer than 60 days, it will be a permanent situation. For tens of millions of Americans, it will be a terminal situation.

We have never lived in a world without fiduciary money -- promises to pay that function as money. Such a world has not existed in the urban West for over 700 years. Yet for a time, the world of cash-only transactions may reappear. I think it will appear in 2000. The question is: How long will it last? Three months without banks would destroy the division of labor that sustains this society. I am planning my life on the assumption that it will be longer than three years, not just three months.

CONCLUSION

The flight to liquidity has only just begun. It is in the preliminary phase of the first stage. The stock market meltdown has not arrived.

Here is my recommendation: if you have to own some item to live decently in 2000 and beyond, buy it now. You cannot be sure of getting it a year from now. Forget about falling prices in 1999. Buy your future lifestyle now. This includes gold and silver coins. Pay with a check if you can, but buy it.

All your other money should be in a defensive position for stage one: money market funds, local banks, and currency. For speculation, short the stock market. Sell all of your urban real estate for cash. Do not carry the paper. If you won't sell it, borrow against it, and use the money to pay cash for the survival property you had better buy before March 31, 1999.

Obey Max's Law: buy the best, pay cash, take delivery.

Phew - Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 02, 1999.

# # # 19990102--Beware: I am not a financial advisor! I am expecting a 9.9 Y2K-level impact.

Hi, Phyllis,

FWIW & IMHO: No! Vapor ( fiat ) financial systems aren't worth the paper it _won't be printed on post-Y2K! Who would accept it?

During the C-SPAN Washington Journal Y2K discussion this morning, I thought it quite ironic/hypocritical of Tony Keyes to recommend T- bills as the safest investment instruments then, at the end/closure of the program when asked what _his personal ( financial ) "position" was, he responded that he was "completely liquid."

Go figure. Do as I say; not as I do?! ( I'll have to replay the video to be certain! )

I am in a financially liquid position! Had to do an "early self- retirement" thing to extract myself from the handcuffs of my 401(k). "Retiring" from 33+ years in the IT field that I labored enjoyably, and the tax and penalty double hits, were the toughest bullets to bite in my life. Believe me!

Rationale: Better to painfully preserve existing assets in hand for preparations than _more painfully watch them vaporize from afar.

Globally, my thinking is that, _all governments will be "Y2K- Toasted." Yes, even the USA! Inevitable--now! Citizens will lose _all confidence in them for misfeasance and malfeasance re Y2K. Intelligent survivors will never again allow governments to attain the social and economic tyranny they enjoy today.

Fundamental: All governments have no "worth," do not produce anything, and have no legitimate authority to guarantee anything. Anything governments do is done at the end of the barrel of a gun ( force )! Survivors of the Y2K Techno-Ambush will never permit this predicament to recur. ( _My hope, anyway! )

Get liquid: stuff for subsistance and barter, supplement with about $5,000/family|party member in gold/silver bouillon and ( junk ) coins. Lay in a good supply of .22 caliber ammo for defense and barter.

Keep it simple!

My $0.02! ... Good Luck!

Regards, Bob Mangus # # #

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), January 02, 1999.

Jesus Christ! You still there Phyl. I warned you and right on cue Bozo and Johnny Jellybean go into their act. Fortunately the Lunatic Fringe is laughing at these two idiots and even here, where this forum has become the mother of all food fights no one is taking them seriously anymore.

Another one to watch out for is Squire who comes on as some kind of over-the-hill flower child but is really the biggest phoney on this forum. That includes the snake oil salesman Ed YourDoneFer. I have no idea what her agenda is or if she is just a frustrated old broad who is tired of having her husbands blow their brains out I only know she is not a nice person.

Have a Nice Day

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), January 02, 1999.

"During the C-SPAN Washington Journal Y2K discussion this morning, I thought it quite ironic/hypocritical of Tony Keyes to recommend T- bills as the safest investment instruments then, at the end/closure of the program when asked what _his personal ( financial ) "position" was, he responded that he was completely liquid. Go figure. Do as I say; not as I do?!"

Robert: It is easy sometimes to get confused with this subject. T-Bills are among the safest fiat debt instruments, though, as I posted above, nothing is absolutely safe as far as paper denominated assets. T-Bills are also considered to be liquid investments (easily turned into cash), so there really is no contradiction between what Tony was saying and doing in this respect. There is a very large secondary market for T-Bills and they have a maturity of from 90 days to 1 year - hence liquid.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), January 02, 1999.

$ $ $ 19990102

Rob Michaels:

Pardon me: if there is no ( fiat ) cash to convert T-anythings into, wouldn't that, by definition, make T-anythings WORTHLESS, too? Doh! ( Am I missing something in that equation? )

The feds are printing ( 1999 ) an extra $50,000,000,000--on top of a previous extra $120,000,000,000--for anticipated Y2K consequences. IMO, this will be inadequate to meet the pending demand. Ergo, paper anything, ostensibly convertible into cash, will only be worth the paper and ink in one's hand. No? ...

Just wondering out loud ...

Regards, Bob Mangus $ $ $

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), January 02, 1999.

Aww James, just when I thought there was some hope for you, you go and let yourself down again.

Your personal attack on Diane betrays your real nature, as does your eminently false Have a Nice Day bullshit.

No more chances, James, you've blown it.

INVAR, when's the goddamn next installment, can anyone participate?? :)

Good luck with your plans Phyllis, at the end of the day you have to make up your own plan of action regarding your hard earned money, much as you have to make your own mind up on the genuineness of responses on this thread.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 02, 1999.

Robert: Yes, the bills have an intrinsic value of zero, and are printed for 7 cents each, regardless of denomination. My point is that of all paper denominated investments, T-Bills have always been regarded as safest... (perceived flight to quality). They are still only paper, and yes, you are also correct in that regardless of the printing presses running 7x24 (which they are already), there is no where near enough physical cash to meet redemptions. It comes down to if someone wants to hold paper at all or not - if they do, then T-Bills are best. Naturally, if you do not think any paper is good, the point is moot, and many folks feel this way.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), January 02, 1999.

What are you morons going to do when I decide to turn up the heat?

BTW Phyl how's Lamar. Mangus needs a job. Does Lamar need another gofer?

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), January 02, 1999.

$ $ $ 19990102

Rob M.: Okay! ;-)

I'd be curious as to why someone--heck, anyone--would be interested into hanging on to worthless anything. Unless they're a pack rat. 8-)

Most other folks seem to enjoy living the a world of illusions and chicanery. That'll be _their demise ... hopefully!

Glad you clarified, Rob!!

Regards, Bob Mangus $ $ $

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), January 02, 1999.

"What are you morons going to do when I decide to turn up the heat?"

What, you mean when you bend over and metaphorically let go again on this forum? Isn't that your normal communication mode oh rotund one? Or do you mean more vigorous hand action (keyboard, of course...)???

What could you possibly do to "turn up the heat" other than ignite one of your bent over emissions with a bic lighter...

And believe me, if you were to do that, in the privacy of your boudoir, it will be the most productive thing you will have done in the last year or so (and I'm being generous, possum).

Abject idiot that you are, I suppose we will all grudgingly have to make allowances. One more thing, when attempting to "turn up the heat", be sure that you have remembered to drop your trousers first or you will find that you have inadvertantly created a burnt hole in them.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 03, 1999.

Reference Jimmy Bagga Donuts' post:

The 25 Rules of Disinformation

Rule number 5:

Sidetrack opponents with name calling and ridicule. This is also known as the primary attack the messenger ploy, though other methods qualify as variants of that approach. Associate opponents with unpopular titles such as "kooks", "right-wing", "liberal", "left- wing", "terrorists", "conspiracy buffs", "radicals", "militia", "racists", "religious fanatics", "sexual deviates", and so forth. This makes others shrink from support out of fear of gaining the same label, and you avoid dealing with issues.

MoVe Immediate

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), January 03, 1999.