http://www.jsonline.com/bym/tech/1213power.asp

[My comments are in brackets. I posted this at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Y2K Online Forum. My comments are not directed at Yourdon posters, but to anyone in Southeastern Wisconsin who stumbles across the Y2K forum.]

Power to spare for Year 2000 Some state residents, firms taking no chances with Y2K By Lee Bergquist of the Journal Sentinel staff

December 13, 1998

For someone who moved to the Chequamegon National Forest to get away from it all, business is booming.

"We're swamped," said Jerry "Jd" Belanger, who with his family owns and publishes Countryside & Small Stock Journal, a magazine that caters to the "voluntary simplicity" movement.

Countryside's circulation is climbing as a growing number of readers yearn to become more self-reliant by reading about everything from tending a bee hive to cooking with a wood stove.

But lately what's been driving the growth of the Taylor County-based magazine are articles on how to survive the Y2K computer bug.

Countryside and other Wisconsin companies are finding themselves riding a wave of concern among some consumers who have grave doubts that the world's computer-driven economy can withstand Y2K.

Even though most government officials say there is no reason for alarm, all kinds of folks aren't buying it. In one way or another, they are taking matters into their own hands, just in case our just-in-time economy grinds to a halt.

[This would have been a nice place to have some facts or quotes about why "government officials" are not being truthful about Y2K.]

Countryside's circulation has ballooned from 4,000 during the boom-boom times of the late 1980s -- a period when Belanger said few people cared about self-sufficiency -- to a current press run of more than 80,000.

With 2000 barely a year away, suddenly "people who had no interest in our magazine and what it represents are saying, 'gosh I better have an alternative way of getting water out of a well or keeping my house warm,' " Belanger said.

[Gosh, lives could be at stake. Makes sense to me.]

"The main thing about Y2K is that it is systemic," he said. "You might have the power grid go down. There could be an impact to ATMs and banking. You can't pump gas. You might get stuck in an elevator."

[Again, supporting evidence of this would certainly add credibility to these statements. Without supporting evidence (of which plenty exists), sounds kind of nutty.]

Of course, nothing might happen.

[Of course?! Nonsense. Nothing will most definitely NOT happen. Is this the writer's attempt to characterize anyone making preparations as loony?]

The potential for calamity brought on by Y2K is being ignored by millions of people who, for the most part, are confident that the billions of dollars being spent will be enough to let programmers and consultants patch things up.

[This is the heart of the problem. Ignorance of the problem will not diminish the effects of Y2K. While billions are indeed being spent, it won't change the central fact that much of the world's businesses are doing NOTHING to fix their broken code. The evidence is overwhelming, to anyone who does any research, that the global economy is likely to experience major problems come 2000. And the risk to the power grid in North America is very real as well.]

After all, America loses power all of the time.

[True. But it is always brief and isolated. Y2K could result in widespread and lengthy power disturbances. Nothing like this has EVER happened before.]

A mistake by a construction crew last Tuesday thrust San Francisco into a blackout for seven hours, grinding much of the city to halt. There were no reports of major accidents, injuries or looting -- and by the end of the day latte machines were once again fully operational.

[Is this supposed to assure everyone that all will be just fine? I'm not convinced. Neither should you be.]

Colder's is so confident about Y2K that in recent commercials pitching the sale of big-screen TVs, it is offering no payments until January 2000. The radio spot adds tongue-in-cheek: "If the computer glitches, you may never have to pay because you may never get billed."

[Free TV's anyone? Enjoy them while you can. They may become useless after 2000. What does this have to do with the rest of the story, anyway?]

Until a few years ago, "Y2K" could have been mistaken as a character in "Star Wars."

[I think I have the original Y2K action figure. It is unopened. I'll sell it to anyone who's interested... Is this an attempt at humor? Y2K doesn't lend itself well to humor, unfortunately. But many joke about it to avoid dealing with the unpleasant reality of the problem. As John Lennon sang: "Whatever gets you through the night".]

But today it has become shorthand for the potential meltdown caused by computers that fail to recognize a year by its last two digits. Unless software is rewritten and certain silicon chips replaced, many computer systems could stop working when clocks move from 99 to 00.

[Duh.]

That possibility has some people already laying in provisions and buying back-up sources of power.

[Good idea. Wouldn't want to be without power for any length of time in January in Wisconsin.]

North Farms Cooperative of Madison, which supplies bulk foods to consumers and small businesses in 12 Midwestern states, has already started to see some consumers stock up.

Sales of wheat berries and spelt berries are going gangbusters, according to Mel Braverman, general manager of the co-op whose annual sales total $30 million. Both of the grains can be ground into flour and they are being talked up in some Y2K survival manuals and Web sites.

Customers traditionally order 200 to 300 pounds at a time, but in the past few months people are placing single orders of 1,500 pounds, Braverman said.

"It's not widespread, but it's happening enough so that we are noticing it," Braverman said. "It seems darn early -- I don't get it."

["Early"? Still "don't get it", apparently.]

Sherper's Government & Factory Surplus Camping Center is selling more lanterns and solar-powered and crank-powered flashlights and radios since Y2K became a hot button issue, according to co-owner Gail Slates.

She's not attributing all of the sales to Y2K, but she said her stores in Hales Corners and Oconomowoc are selling more "to people who would not buy it for camping and are buying it because they have concerns about the power supply."

[Even if the power doesn't go out, they can still use them for camping trips...]

Generac Portable Products LLC of Jefferson, the largest manufacturer of generators in North America, is reporting sharply higher demand because of Y2K. Privately held, Generac does not reveal its sales figures. But President Dorrance Noonan said concerns about Y2K have pushed thousands more Generac generators out the door this year.

"You know what drives generator sales?" Noonan said. "It's uncertainty.

[Y2K is the greatest uncertainty humanity has ever had to face.]

"We see demand driven by all different types of uncertainty: hurricanes, ice storms, power outages. There's been so much reported on Y2K. So much of it has just scared people, and they wonder what it means, so they buy portable generator sets."

Generac's experience is shared by Janesville-based Blain's Farm & Fleet, which operates 30 stores across Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa and has found itself selling out of some models this year.

"Sales are up significantly over forecast," said Tom Coffman, a merchandise manager, adding that the general merchandise retailer is expecting generator sales to be even higher next year.

[Time is short. Supplies will be short very soon. If you don't act soon, you may be out of luck.]

Natural Ovens of Manitowoc, a baker of health-conscious breads, will be installing a generator this year because of Y2K.

[How many other businesses will do the same?]

Co-owner Barbara Stitt was at a retreat in October in Virginia where, she said, "engineers and people doing work in Washington were talking about the problem and were really concerned.

[Rightfully so. It is precisely those who know the most about the problem who are most concerned.]

"I would rather be on the safe side than ignore it and be sorry."

[Same here.]

Other consumers are looking beyond generators and are spending $10,000 to $15,000 to install solar- or wind-generated systems.

[I would if I could.]

Ralph Kling and Norman Numrich, both retired and neighbors in Mequon, have asked the city for a variance to build a pair of 80-foot-high wind turbines to provide each of their homes a reliable back-up power supply.

"We were concerned about Year 2000," Numrich said. "We started thinking what we could do about it and what would be necessary in order for us to survive."

Their conclusion: Build the wind turbines on their one-acre lots and use the electricity to pump their wells and power their homes if they lost juice from Wisconsin Electric Power Co.

So far, the city's planning board has rejected the request, but King and Numrich have appealed the decision.

The Mequon residents are not alone in looking for an alternative power source.

"My guess is that the phone calls to our office have doubled this year, and the increase is mostly due to the Y2K scare," said Tehri Parker, executive director of the Midwest Renewable Energy Association in Amherst, located east of Stevens Point.

[I would expect they will increase tenfold next year.]

Driven both by Y2K and electric shortages over the past two summers, Christopher LaForge said business at Great Northern Solar of Port Wing in Bayfield County is brisk.

"But personally, I don't like fear as a motivation to use renewables," he said.

[Fear is a powerful motivator. Deal with it.]

To his chagrin, Y2K has attracted a new type of consumer who is less interested in pollution-free renewable power and is more concerned in holding on to what they have.

["Holding on to what they have" is a bad thing?]

"For the most part, these are people with a lot of money," LaForge said. "They are wealthy people who do not want the inconvenience."

[Wealth, apparently, is evil as well... NOONE wants the inconvenience!! Maybe only the wealthy will be able to prepare to this extent, so it will fall upon communities to prepare shelters or "safe havens" for the unwashed masses. How many communities will do so?]

They're secretive, too.

[Apparently that's bad also.]

Dennis Pottratz of Go Solar in Decorah, Iowa, built a back-up power system for a homeowner in eastern Iowa with Y2K concerns who forbade him from talking about the project.

"If we run out of power, he's concerned that people will come banging on his door for electricity," said Pottratz, who also is seeing a rekindled interest in "green power."

[I'm not sure I want to be the only one on my block with heat and light, either. People can get nasty if they're cold and hungry.]

Fear about Y2K shouldn't be surprising, according to Barry Brummett of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a scholar of apocalyptic movements.

[Great. Y2K is lumped in with other "apocalyptic movements". Another reason for most people to dismiss it entirely.]

"Anyone who has had their hard drive crash on them is conditioned to some extent to thinking that something like this could happen," he said.

[Argh. "Something like this"? What? Hard drives crashing? While frustrating, I can deal with it. Y2K is a bit more serious than this.]

For a magazine that writes about living off the grid, publisher Belanger had wanted his own renewable power system for years.

Last summer, at his tavern-turned-publishing house on Highway 64, he installed both a solar-power and a 65-foot-high wind turbine generation system.

[End of story. Once again, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has, in my opinion, blown it. Apparently, Y2K is still a subject to be joked about or ridiculed. Shame. I expect that by this time next year, the tone will have changed radically. In the meantime, I and many others will prepare. Ignore Y2K at your peril.]

-- Steve Hartsman (hartsman@ticon.net), December 13, 1998

Answers

Steve,

Thanks for the news from the countryside. As long as the Y2K news remains back door the preparations will be too. Its gotta go mainstream newsmedia, ASAP, if this country is gonna have a chance. * Sigh* More e-mails.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 14, 1998.

Steve, I too live in MKE, and was apalled by that article. 'Specially the guy at the MREA who called it a "scare". But I guess I shouldn't expect anything less from that fish wrapper known as the Journal Sentinel. The reporter coulda done so much more with that space. JS policy, fur sure.

Those who live in MKE County: WE"RE SCREWED!

-- (answer@here.com), December 14, 1998.

The article isn't perfect, but reading it carefully I'll bet it got some folks attention.

Specifically, Natural Ovens (and the Stitts)have an avid following based on the product line. The quiet warning found in Barbara's comments and their stated action of buying a generator raised some eyebrows. Countryside's subscription figures and the sales information from other Wisconsin companies got other peoples attention.

Any information that infers the potential scope of the problem creates an opportunity for awareness for the critical reader. I realize the article may be too upbeat for some on this forum, but some readers had to do a doubletake...

Good Luck jh

-- John Hebert (jhebert@co.waukesha.wi.us), December 15, 1998.