Now that we're getting closer to the New Year, and we review the "progress" to date, what do you think will be the first no-mistake-about-it-this-is-a-y2k-problem to hit the general public so that a critical mass of awareness will be created?

Also, other than the obvious, bank runs, how will we experience and measure this new awareness?

-- Sara Nealy (saran@ptd.net), December 11, 1998

Answers

Hi Sara: I'm not at all convinced that there will be a "no-mistake-about-it-this-is-a-y2k-problem " event early in the year. Failures are already happening but we hear little or nothing about them since they are swept under the corporate rug. No company wants Wall Street to have a true Y2K clue. I expect this to continue unless there is a failure (or series of failures) that are just so big that they cannot be hidden. In that case we may not really need to 'measure' awareness. We will just know.

A far as awareness, since I began talking about Y2K barometers about 5 or 6 weeks ago on this forum, we have seen a noticable increase in public interest and awareness. I think that it has grown significantly enough where our main barometers will be just how fast the awareness rate is growing (as a result of greater media coverage especially) and good old 'gut feel' as Uncle said.

Three things to keep in mind about 1/99 is that the new EURO currency will debut with possible ramifications to the financial markets, Financial/accounting (and other) systems will be looking ahead 1 year into 1/00, and also the year 2000 will not seem so 'far away' to all of the FIs, DWGIs, and DGIs.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), December 11, 1998.

I recently read that Samsonite tried I believe to test, what a MESS. Said trucks went to wrong places and it cost them plenty. Already it is starting to 'rear up' but, not to the extent where the herd see's it. I just went to a store here in Ohio called Dollar General, sales lady told me that recently they too have been getting trucks in with stuff that goes to other stores. I personally believe it is RAMPANT as testing is now I believe being done, but you can betcha bottom dollar it wont be mainstream till all heck breaks lose. Sprint is having problems, They admitted it to me. With billing problems, my bank Star Bank has not been up to date as it used to be with the automated teller call in center. More than meets the eye, but as usual....all is silent. Should I be whispering?

-- consumer (private@aol.com), December 11, 1998.

consumer, whispering may be a thing of the past pretty soon. CEO of PG&E admits that recent San Francisco Blackout is a Y2K wake-up call.

The dial turns.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 11, 1998.

The January 1999 failures will probably make the news. I can see potential problems in areas such as state unemployment insurance, car insurance, auto registrations, one year reservations, and annual events like conventions.

The fiscal year rollover problem is possibly overrated as far as something that will raise public awareness of Y2K. Internal bookkeeping problems shouldn't interfere with a company's ability to serve the public.

The most notable Y2K failires in 1999 could be in 12 month, 6 month, 3 month, 1 month, 1 week, and 1 day look-aheads. It's possible that after a round of failures in January of 1999, the next noticeable round might be six month look-aheads in July of 1999.

What happens with the I.R.S. in 1999 is the wild card.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), December 11, 1998.

This happened to me this month.

A check that had been cleared in October( ie it was deducted from our account). This month (Dec.) the same check number was again charged to our account!!! The check was to a large loan processing center. Sounds like thier new code has lots of bugs, but it is in use anyway or they had to rerun some old data because it was not processed correctly!! Check all transactions !

Hang on the ride gets better from here!!

Mike

-- mike (justmike11@yahoo.com), December 11, 1998.

"A check that had been cleared in October( ie it was deducted from our account). This month (Dec.) the same check number was again charged to our account!!! The check was to a large loan processing center."

Ok...I'm right there with you so far.

"Sounds like thier new code has lots of bugs, but it is in use anyway or they had to rerun some old data because it was not processed correctly!!"

Um...You just made a left and I made a right. How in the world did you make this leap? Did they tell you they put new code to use? You have never seen a billing error before?

"Check all transactions !"

That should be a given with or without Y2K.

Mike I am not trying to get really confrontational here with ya, but that was a pretty good sized leap in assumptions you just made.

Rick

-- Rick Tansun (ricktansun@hotmail.com), December 11, 1998.