VISA is toastgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
I just put this in the REDUX section but it really is a commentary on the mainframe computers worldwide that interact with VISA Interational, which in turn has mainframe sites in San Francisco, London, McClean VA, and Yokohama. I've made a couple of changes to the original posting.This is a little long and maybe boring for the non-techies but I wanted to give you all an idea of my background before I give you my two E-ratings.
I'm a transplanted 40 year old Brit from London now living in sunny/foggy San Francisco, been here 5 years, love the country, love England too. I'm a computer professional, a "dinosaur" if you will. Left school at 18 and straight in to British Airways IT department as a "tape-ape" - nothing like starting at the bottom! Hey, but it was great fun, 18, well paid (relatively), cheap flights, saw the world over the next ten years. As a tape-ape you would sit at a printer, and as programmes would run the printer would spew out the VSN's (Volume Serial Numbers) of the tapes to load and you would jump up and load the tapes (manually, thread it through the tape drive onto the take-up spool). Got really quick, maybe 4-5 a minute:-) Usually two or three of us doing it, kept us fit, radio on, time passed quickly. Then it was a series of promotions to printer operator, output distributor, data controller, trainee operator (4 year course - excellent training), and so on up to eventually a shift leader in charge of 15 operators at Heathrow running about 15 different systems.
At 27 I went to Saudi Arabia and helped install the first realtime airline reservations system for Saudia. Promoted to realtime Coverage programmer, learnt Assembler (Aaaarrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhh!!!!). Then on to System One in Miami (the old Continental Airlines), Amadeus in Munich (a consortium of Airlines), American Airlines in Tulsa, SNCF (the French Railroad) in Lille (AA Sabre software), back to BA for the latest training, then finally to a major credit card company located in the Bay Area beginning with "V".
The point is all these positions have been with major mainframe systems, using predominantly legacy software, in a bunch of different countries. They have all been working with Realtime systems. These realtime systems have been patched over the last 30-40 years to the extent that would boggle the mind. New technology had been layered over old. There has usually been no consistency in sticking with the same hardware manufacturers for ease of maintenance etc. This will add to the upcoming problems.
Many people have no concept of what a mainframe is - we live in a PC culture after all. What I can see as clear as day is the interconnectivity problem between these mainframes, the networks, satellites, land lines, telecommunications, the power grid etc. etc. - this is what is going to bring the house of cards down.
Visa and Mastercard are now "compliant" - yeah right. This has not been proven, it cannot be proven without live realtime testing with live data in a real world situation. Visa interacts with 100,000 member banks worldwide. The vast majority of these banks will in no way be compliant. Therefore they will be sending Visa bad data, our "compliant" Visa programmes will route or modify this data according to the programme specifications, but the routed/modified data will in many/most cases by innacurate/corrupt. Assuming it gets delivered to the next entity in a corrupt state, that next entity that may or may not be compliant will in turn route or modify the data. The result of this scenario, in my humble opinion, will be total, worldwide chaos in the banking community.
Talking about cultures - the reason myself and a whole boatload of mainly Brits and Americans got to work in these countries in the first place was because there was no local expertise. In many cases, after all these years, this is *still* the case. Even now the data centres (other than AA at Tulsa, and VISA), are nearly all run by foreign expats. When TSHTF these expats will be gone, vamoosed, why would they stay?
Saudia will be toast.
SNCF certainly. Amadeus/BA/AA have got to fail for the reasons outlined above. Visa too - despite starting several years ago along with Mastercard. Garbage in, Garbage out. That's the way it will work. Not taking into account electricity and telecommunications, if either one fails we're done for. The consequences will be catastrophic in my opinion - unless I'm missing something, maybe my logic is faulty?
Working with these mainframes and telecomms sytems it's a wonder that things work as they do now - next year there will be absolutely no chance.
So what am I doing? Well, I've just resigned. Porsche is up for sale (anyone want a beautiful '79 911SC? No? neither do I - I can do far more with the money). Put my 401K into the safest overnight money market-type account earning no interest - but at least I can sleep at night relatively speaking:-) (I did this 5 months ago - I'm really suprised the markets have held up this long - watch this space!).
Come January I will cash out and pay my tax penalties. The 10% will not be due until, guess what, March of 2000! If there's an IRS around then I'll pay them. So in the meantime I'm hoping that things stay stable enough so I can get some money and start to make a few practical plans in early '99. Also I'm working on my family - my younger brother drives a cab here in the city and he "get's it". He hears things in his cab and is getting very worried. He's a great source of information in that regard. He is buying physical gold. Last week he paid $304 for a gold eagle. Today it is $312+... We are both playing a few gold options but probably will not be able to collect even if we are right. My older brother in LA has come around, he trusts my judgement (fool!) and is taking it seriously now that I've resigned etc. He feels powerless as he's pretty broke and can't afford to do much. That's where I and little bruv will come in - so, to sum up a rather depressing post I'm going for a 10 and a 5.
Great forum this - I've learned a lot, great people, you should be proud of yourselves.
Cheers, Andy
-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 13, 1998
On the US side - a lot of places are just replacing or redesigning everything. I think if they are getting really really bad data from some places that threaten to crash the system they will just disconnect that data source from the system and put all transactions from that area on indefinite hold. This will probably save most of the US side of the system - but a lot of third world countries will indeed be 'toast'. Note that I don't KNOW what the contingency plan is - but it is what I would do and is just about all that can be done.
-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), November 13, 1998.
But Sir Davis,Its worse than that: how long will it be until they (VISA/MC) notice it is bad data? Not everything will "look" contminated until each person gets his bill in early-mid Feb 2000. And even then, many people will probably have good statements. Or maybe none will.
After how many milion transactions, some of which will be good ones, of course, some will be mixed up good ones, and some will be fraudulant "good" ones taking advantage of the confusion.
Adding: Each transaction (worldwide) represents a merchant's and a supplier's life. Without these legitimate sales, the merchants can't continue in business. Without real expectation of getting repaid from VIA/MC/AMEX to their bank account - these guys would be better off not selling - not accepting any credit, but rather relying only on cash.
Then you have the run on the bank starting - for those who've not already pulled their money out.
My vote - I'd rather the telephone lines go down until the credit card companies get fixed, and get verified. Actually, I'd rather they both keep working
- but ......
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 13, 1998.
Good post, Andy. Thanks. Makes me want to rush out (nearly midnight) and buy a few more cans of tuna.I think you just illustrated the full magnitude of the problem. It's worldwide, especially in the financial arena, it's highly computerized, and bad data can get propagated. Firewalls and filters only work to shut off the sources of bad data. If it's a financial business you simply can't disconnect the spigot without also shutting off the flow of money. Oh, my.
-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), November 13, 1998.
Andy,Appreciate the insight. If Saudi Arabia depends on foreign programmers, then it IS toast. A very recent GartnerGroup report puts Saudi Arabia into its "Level 3" catagory--a country where 50% of companies will experience mission-critical IT failures.
Also scary is that 50% of companies in Germany and Japan are expected to have mission-critical failures...
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), November 13, 1998.
Verrrry interesting.
When TSHTF these expats will be gone, vamoosed, why would they stay?--If it really HTF how will they travel?
-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 14, 1998.
Speaking from somewhat first hand experiance (I was there when the letter arrived and saw it with my own eyes), my friend who owns the two companies got a letter somewhere around 18 months ago about credit cards and the Year 2000. Even though he had purchased his terminals directly from his clearing house, they informed him that if his terminals were not compliant by December 31,1998 he would be fined $1500 PER terminal. And the fines would not stop there, if he went past the deadline he would contiue to be fined beyond that date for each terminal.He ran the tests as instructed and passed. So he has talked with other retailers who got the same letters and they have all been running the tests. Yes there are still non-compliant terminals out there, but the amount of bad data is not going to be quite what you expect.
Don't think $1500 is enough of a fine per terminal. I was just thinking of our closest Wal-Mart, in my head I came up with *29* terminals. $43,500 for just that one store if they are not compliant. For smaller Wal-Marts they have less terminals so let's say I grudgingly say the average number of terminals is 20 (I feel it would be higher). So 20 X 2000 stores (they have more than that, but I don't know the exact number) So that would be 40,000 terminals, now times $1500 per terminal you are looking at $60,000,000! Now I have no idea if Wal-Mart is under this same deadline, but there are plenty of other chains with insane amounts of terminals. You don't think a $60 Million fine would be enough of a incentive to fix things?
And honestly, you have never gotten a messed up credit card bill?
Rick
-- Rick Tansun (ricktansun@hotmail.com), November 14, 1998.
# # # 19981114SATTODAY:
o There are some ~146,000 credit card _merchants globally.
o Farmer Jack AND A&P ( large USA grocery chains ) cannot/willnot accept ANY credit cards with expiry past 12-99
o My father-in-law, visiting from another state, is unable to use his VISA cards at the abovementioned establishments. ( They hate out- of-state checks; have to accept them, though. )
New cards issued with expiry in/after "00" come with a ( small print ) notice to the cardholder to report merchants unable to accept their card to an 800 number. No one ever does this -- do they?
Furthermore, the merchant is supposed to call for verbal authorization when these events occur. Merchants don't do this either -- can't have that much staff time tied up on the telephone.
Banks are Y2K-toast -- if there's electricity to toast them. ( LOL! ) Credit cards are Y2K-toast, too! ( Watch what happens, too, when the Euro kicks in, 01/99! What a cluster! )
The anecdote about letters to merchants from credit card companies is blatantly UNTRUE and, as with the USA judicial system, without TEETH. Thw PR disaster these enterprises would bring around their ears would be the final nail in the global economy collapse. ( You don't have to be a "Yardeni" to see that! What a Y2K-lackey Yardeni's turned out to be! )
Regards, Bob Mangus # # #
-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), November 14, 1998.
"The anecdote about letters to merchants from credit card companies is blatantly UNTRUE"Gee Bob, if I didn't know better, I would say you just called me a liar. While I admit I do not have the letter in my hands (and I don't think my friend has it anymore, but I will ask him) I would like to know where you get your information from that it is untrue.
Rick
-- Rick Tansun (ricktansun@hotmail.com), November 14, 1998.
Uh, Rick......better re-read the original post.It didn't refer to transactions between merchants and their banks........it refered to global transactions, between banks located all over the world and VISA (or MC, or Discover, or AMEX)
Let's say a US citizen makes a purchase in Timbuctoo. The merchant accepts the card, gives the guy the item, and everyone's fine. Until the transaction gets screwed up passing through different computers, in different countries on the way to VISA and thence to the bank issuing the credit card, and thence to the buyer's account. At least one of these international transactions must factor in currency exchange -- so the merchant is paid in Timbuctoo credit and the buyer is billed in USD.
This has absolutely nothing to do with the Walmart swipe process. Let's assume that domestic transactions are handled correctly by then.
It has a lot to do with the viability of the credit card company if it doesn't operate, without garbaged international transactions, after 2000-01-01.
This is a lot deeper than just whether or not my 01/01 expiration date card gets accepted. And, yes, maybe the buyer can get his account straightened out sometime after several months effort. That's not the point of the post, either. The point is that the credit card company might well end up with millions of transactions that have inaccurate data. They may eventually straighten them all out, after years of trying.....using merchant and buyer copies of the transaction and handcranking backdated exchange rates, and spending a lot of time and effort and money on each - supposed to have been automatic - transaction. They may well do this, if they haven't gone under first.
IMHO it's dodging the issue to talk about straightening things out post facto (which is what your remark about having had a problem before implies) If a problem exists it won't cause one bad transaction, but may well overwhelm the company in which the problem exists. Fix on failure will toast the credit card company that tries it because the expenditure of resources fixing the results of that failure will be astronomical.
-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), November 14, 1998.
.
-- a (a@a.a), November 14, 1998.
..3rd times the charm
-- b (b@b.b), November 14, 1998.
Andy, Thanks for the post. Keep in touch here.We have mentioned WalMart several times. Their fiscal year 2000 starts on 2/1/99. Any thoughts on what might happen then? Will this cause problems with their famous Just in time Inventory system? Any WalMarters lurking out there?
-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), November 14, 1998.
"99% is not good enough. It must be 100%" - former mainframe programmer Alan Greenspan on why the world financial system must be totally Y2K compliant."Fix on failure will toast the credit card company that tries it because the expenditure of resources fixing the results of that failure will be astronomical." - Rocky Knolls...good point rocky!
-- a (a@a.a), November 14, 1998.
Rocky,I was not addressing the original post. This thread just seemed as good a place to interject this comment as anywhere. Is something I have wanted to say for awhile and this seemed like as good a place as any.
Me:"And honestly, you have never gotten a messed up credit card bill?"
Rocky:"IMHO it's dodging the issue to talk about straightening things out post facto (which is what your remark about having had a problem before implies)"
It was late and it was a very lame attempt at humor Rocky. I can see why you took it seriouslly, I didn't put anything to qualify it as a joke, but that truly was the intent. Even I would never be so naive as to say "Just fix it after its happened". Sorry the joke failed so badly...my bad.
Rick *Rick's new mental rule...no posting after 3 AM...it fails..it fails BIG time*
-- Rick Tansun (ricktansun@hotmail.com), November 14, 1998.
Rick and Co.,Great points made - I was on duty when these first 2000/2001 expiry date cards started declining en masse all over the world a coupl'a years ago. TSHTF:-) It was not a pleasant experience, but it was an eye-opener:-) Actually, there was plenty of pizza floating around, and "managers" appearing out of the woodwork that you usually only saw collapsing at the annual Xmas disco/line dance before we got all PC two years ago...:-)
We patched our systems one by one (4 around the world that have to be in-synch at all times naturally - ooooh, another problem), touch and go for a couple of days, when suddenly, lo and behold, two weeks later a directive went out from the muckety-mucks (love that word!) to all 100,000 members that they must get their acts together (code) or suffer the consequences (fines!).
Slapped wrists and nether regions all around!
Granted, most have complied by now. But don't bet on *full* compliance. Those that have complied come y2k will have unknown and incalculable factors affecting the data being transmitted. *If* it can be transmitted.
Liken it to a systemic virus if you will. We are talking about the likes of Russia, Iran, Iraq, all of Europe (also coping with the Euro), Japan in meltdown, Asia, South America, and, yes, Arkansas - most not particularly renowned for dynamic forward technological remedial first aid. No offense to Arkansas implied but I keep thinking of the Clintstones, Mena, and all those lines of coke - eh Bill? Bill, leave 'er alone for a minute will ya? What is it with you and canines anyway?:-)
Ask yourself just *one* crucially important question. Why the hell did Visa issue x million credit cards (via the issuing banks) to umpteen banks worldwide with expiry dates of 2000-2001 when the software, be it at Visa, the Banks or POS (point of sale) terminals could not handle it?
Does this give you pause for confidence in the ability of these institutions to organise a piss-up in a brewery? Not even the issuing banks had a clue that things were gonna fail. And they issued the cards; And they know how there own code works (Ha!)- don't they? Spot the brain cells...
Part of my last job at Visa was manual cleanup of disputed transactions on a worldwide basis. I would use a bunch of powerful tools to do this. The most useful would usually be a logprint of the total transaction flow. A typical transaction could be bounced all over the world several times and still get screwed up somewhere along the way. This is not pretty. And before I left it was getting worse and worse. Too much faulty code being introduced now in the never- ending desire to "improve" the service. Now these problem transactions are usually in the order of hundreds individually. Come any Jo Anne effect y2k related problems from 1/1/99 onwards these could be in the magnitude of millions. Come 1/1/00 they will be in the order of magnitude of ??? insert number here ??? *If* the systems are still functioning - which I doubt.
Somebody also mentioned triage or workarounds (Paul) - i.e. cutting off mainframe to mainframe discourse from the USA to/from certain countries...logical idea and valid... but not in this lifetime. Who's gonna make the decisions, who will be the central point, who will swallow the legal implications...? Good idea, proposed before, but in the time frame and with the "leadership" we have now, unworkable. The very thought of this would collapse the world banking system...
Tom - WTSHTF it's too late;-) as a seasoned mercenary:-))) plying my trade around the world I *know* when the writing is on the wall, as do most (OK some, the rest are greedy bastards) of my buddies. I just had 4 months ago a contract to go in and set up a new reservations system for Aeroflot - Sabre/AA software - funded by the G7/IMF etc., etc., brand new data centre in Moscow, 50 Russians been learning English for the last year, ready and waiting to be trained up etc., etc., and what happens ?----- the plug is pulled right at the last minute... this is a project that has been on the back-burner for the last seven or eight years --- you do *not* ignore signs like this. You network and talk to people and you make a plan.
And lastly to Rick - come y2k I think most of those 100,000 banks worldwide would be only too grateful to have the ability to interact with the rest of the banking community via Visa/MasterCard/SWIFT etc. - but with the problems that I envision impacting each and every one of those entities on all the continents and islands of the earth *at the same time*, I cannot logically see how this is going to transpire.
Think GLOBALLY - think of the impacts, think SYSTEMIC problems, think *INTERCONNECTIVITY* (for this will be the Achilles heel), think "I had better get my arse in gear, pronto!", all rather depressing I know. I got over (possibly/maybe) _that_ six months ago... 412 days to go...
All the best, Andy
P.S. Hey, those 3 years in Saudi, I brew a mean beer - my new trade???
-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 14, 1998.