I'm curious as to what upcoming events and dates will be the next ones to watch for significant news and status reports on Y2K. After reading many of the statements made at the Oct 7 Senate Special Committee on Year 2000 session, I've not been especially encouraged. About the best I can say is that awareness is growing in some sectors. Washington D.C. admits to being one year behind schedule.

January 1999 should be interesting because an unbelieveable number of companies and organizations have said that they'll be done with remediation by then (thus leaving a full year for testing and integration). In addition, some actual Y2K errors (mostly minor, we've been told) can be expected.

Maybe I'm a bit cynical on this one but I expect an incredible number of groups to claim "99% done", or, in classic Microsoft style "compliant with issues". "Yes sir, we're basically done. We've got just a couple of outstanding issues but those will be taken care of any day now."

We've also got another quarterly government agency 'report card' from Congressman Horn due out this month I believe.

Does anyone know of any events between now and January 1999 that should be particularly revealing one way or the other? What should we be watching now and why? -Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 02, 1998

Answers

Between now and January 1999, I think we should be looking for spin control on what IS going to happen this January. I'm a cynic on this too. The I.R.S. just said a few days ago that it'll be ready by January--but--a few problems should be expected because testing on the remediation hasn't been done yet (that's my interpretation of what they said).

Isn't this the same I.R.S. that Congressman Horn in his last report said was way behind? I've also noticed that the Federal Reserve, which I KNOW is concerned about Y2K, had one of its members very recently say that Y2K is only going to cause minimal problems.

It looks to me as if the government is definitely worried about public perception in January. One reason, as you mentioned, Arnie, is all the government agencies and businesses that've said they'd be ready by December 31, 1998.

Another reason is that it WILL be 1999. The news media has been giving this issue the benefit of the doubt (the "I'm sure they'll take care of it" argument). With less than a year left, the media is going to start blowing the whistle.

Also in January the regulatory agencies that having been nicely requesting information from utilities and businesses will start DEMANDING it--specifics too. And we all know the news isn't good.

The biggest problem I see for January of 1999, though, is that noticeable Y2K glitches are going to start happening then. I'd look for problems in one-year insurance policies, one-year auto registrations, convention business registrations, and in travel agencies--anything that would stretch from January of 1999 to January of 2000.

I can see it now--lots of soothing words from officials and business people in the next 60 days. Then in January of 1999 they'll say, "No, we're not having Y2K problems. It's fixed. We just haven't had time to do the testing yet".....

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), November 02, 1998.

I was channel surfing last night and stopped when I saw Bill Gates on C-Span. He was at Indiana University and was taking questions from the audience. One man stood up and said that he was in the generator business and had a lot of requests due to Y2K. Gates said "they were working on it," and expected most of the problems in the billing departments. I had to laugh. When I called the utility company, they told me they were finished with the billing. In fact, I think that is what a lot of companies are addressing first.

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), November 02, 1998.

It really is going to be fascinating to see how long this game will be played. My own prediction is that it will effectively end April 1999, when fiscal year rollovers to 2000 in New York State, Canada, and other places validate the seriousness of the Y2K problem by affecting people who are directly dependent. And these first hand accounts will get wide publicity, and will then let everyone understand that Y2K is real ... and is coming for them, too.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), November 02, 1998.

Go to Dejanews and do a search on the Jo Ann effect.

A Shicklegruber

-- (a@a.a), November 02, 1998.

One interesting date to watch- July 1 , 1999. This is the date a substantial number of companies and organizations have set as a "drop dead" date for vendor or system participant "compliance."

Examples:

-The Bank for International Settlements: Banks not compliant will be banned from international monetery transactions testing

-General Motors: GM (and other auto makers) has consistenly stated that vendors not meeting this "compliance" date will dropped as vendors.

Should these (or other) organizations allow any grace period or exceptions to anyone "close to compliance," I suggest you add one point to whichever severity scale you are using.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), November 02, 1998.