Was just on the live chat with sen bennet link from y2knews. Heather asked sen bennet "you say we need to prepare for possible problems. What precisely are your recommendations How long do you surmise failures will last?" Sen Bennet replied "the big systems-power, phone, etc probably won't have problems beyond a few hours, if that. The other problems in America should be fixed within a few days, although the :"fix" may be to shut down some agencies and substitue others for the services required. But we won't really know for sure until we get closer to it and have had some extensive tests of the systems involved. " Great I don't need a generator, the phone will only be not working for a few hours. What me worry. When our paul revere is saying this know I am really frightened. So much for the truth its all a big spin. Comments?

-- papa bear (it.guy@usa.net), October 29, 1998

Answers

I think it comes down to what real choice does he have in what he says.

It appears that the main goal with any government organization or official is not to create panic. For example, if they went on record as saying that everyone should have a 3 month supply or food and water as well as purchase a generator or solar panels, all hell would break loose. The factories that produce generators, wood stoves and solar panels can only physically produce so many in the remaining 14 months, no where near enough to satisfy the demand that would be created.

Bennett is no doubt aware that a certain percentage of citizens will read between the lines and prepare themselves anyway, so any additional comments he makes will not assist those that are preparing and will certainly cause havoc amongst those that either will not be able to get the supplies they may need or can't afford to do so.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), October 29, 1998.

So during the first 14 months of WWII (Nov 1941 through Jan 1943) we went from a depression economy level, and a fourth-rate military level to being able to launch over 1500 ships, complete over 15,000 aircraft of equal technical complexity to today's 747, and build enough jeeps, trucks and tanks to begin resupplying Europe - while faced with rebuilding our military manpower and convert civilian plants, while fighting submarines and having no outside assistance or imports, .....

and now, when faced with building wood stoves and solar panels, making clean water bottles, and storing 4 weeks of dried beans, getting enough "D cells" and a kerosene heater for each family,

you're claiming "they" are worried we can't do it....

so "they" are going to what? Let the ones who can't think far ahead enough to do do what? What the h**l is the fall-back position when these things are needed ... and nobody has them.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 29, 1998.

WOW, at least I don't have to worry about Y2K anymore. Now, if someone could just do something about those electromagnetic space storms....

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 29, 1998.

They don't really have a fallback position.

The facts of the situation have been ignored for so long now and typically governments move so slowly that in their eyes, the only reasonable position is to keep quiet about what we face.

Granted, it's extremely irresponsible, but I doubt if there are enough brave and honest politicians to overcome the lethargy of the majority of them.

If serious planning had started a year or two ago the story may have been different. But now it appears that many politicians, paralyzed by fear and denial, will instead resort to a tactic of blaming the problems on those that speak the truth about Y2k rather than actively working to help the people.

Watch what happens when key supplies start to become hard to get. The government officials will blame those that have prepared (by accusing them of hoarding) rather than blame themselves for their inaction.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), October 29, 1998.

I know it will never happen, but I wish someone with the visibility and authority of a Sen. Bennett would come out and say, "It's time to panic!!" Sure there would be chaos for a while, but people can't remain in a state of panic for 14 straight months, and in the meantime tons of generators, wood stoves, and canned food would be produced, not to mention all the family, neighborhood, church, and local community support networks that would be organized. (Just think of how much fire wood could be cut and seasoned between now and one- one-oh-oh.) There's a big difference between the type of panic that comes when you find yourself suddenly cold, dark, hungry, and frightened, and the type of panic that comes when you think you MAY be cold, dark, and hungry next year. The former is a hysterical, out- of-control, destructive panic. The latter is an adrenaline-fueled, controlled, productive panic. But, as I said, ain't gonna happen.

-- bill dunn (bdunn@snet.net), October 29, 1998.

A few hours? This is more than a bit perplexing and quite a turn-around from earlier statements. Even though Sen. Bennett has never been a 'doom and gloomer', his seriousness on the myriad issues involved here (it's NOT just the electricity) have never been in doubt. This is a very mixed message he is sending, especially to those who have been following him a while. Having watched the full 3 hours of the June 2, 1998 CSIS conference carried on C-SPAN including Sen. Bennett's presentation, having followed Sen. Bennett's statements in the intervening months, I can only conclude that one of the following has occurred:

1. All the evidence pointing to trouble is simply wrong or overblown. All the money spent thus far has either been wasted on needless repairs or has been spent judiciously and effectively and Y2K will be a non-event for most of the planet. All the optimistic statements from CEOs and government organizations are right on the money and can be believed without reservation, concern or verification. The military's preparations and metropolitan 'exercises' here in the US and around the world are simply 'posturing' in case Sadam decides to invade and convert everyone to his own flavor of Islam.

   After all, there's really no community/personal preparedness needed for an outage of 'a few hours' - we survive those easily all the time with no real preparedness. Time to donate to the local soup kitchens?

2. My 20 years of software and systems development experience is now terribly obsolete because amazing new technologies have been developed over the past 3 months which apparently now allow us to produce a 3 minute egg in 17 seconds. Suddenly, it seems that the largest software project in human history is about to come in on time and under budget.

3. Someone has discovered that our lives don't really depend on these machines. They're not really needed anyway.

4. Sen. Bennett has come to the conclusion that we'll all be much better off if we don't prepare. After all, preparation is somewhat tiring and has a tendency to be a bit depressing. Better to face disruptions when they happen rather than to tire and depress yourself by preparing.

5. Something else is going on.

I know what I would like to believe -- #1 above. That would give me great comfort. I could cease and desist researching, monitoring, verifying and preparing and simply quit needlessly thinking about such silly issues. I'd have time to go enjoy the many things that these issues have pre-empted. Numbers 2, 3 & 4 above are too ludicrous to even discuss. It's #5 that really gives me great concern.

I would be very interested to hear what Ed Youdon has to say about this seemingly amazing turn-around. I sure don't see anything that's changed significantly in the past 3 months. Work goes on, as well it should - we must fix what can be fixed. But just what is the reason for this unbridled optimism, if that's what it really is? Just exactly what has changed between June and October? Unprepared people will be a whole lot angrier and prone to violence than prepared ones.

Where are Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein now that we desperately need them again? Deep Throat, are you still listening?

-Arnie

PS: Any guesses as to what Congressman Horn's next federal agency 'report card' will look like? I suspect we're about to see an amazing turn-around in the 'class of 2000'. Even more ominous would be if Horn suddenly decided that these agencies were, in fact, doing 'so good', there was no longer any need for such a report card.

-- Arnie Rimmer (arnie_rimmer@usa.net), October 29, 1998.

Papa Bear was this in a Chat room? Could you give us more information? There is nothing about this at the Y2KNews site.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 29, 1998.

Arnie, You are completely correct. The answer is #5. I'm not big on conspiracy nutcase stuff, but I suspect the good Senator may have had a conversation that went like this,

Darkman- "Bill, we need your understanding on this. We have to have time to get the necessary Federal preparations in place. If you panic the public, WE ALL are going to die and you aren't going to be a Senator anymore beause the Senate won't exist. You don't have to lie. Just tone it down a little bit."

Bill- "Okay, but you are going to let me in the bunker at Camp David, aren't you?"

Darkman- "Sure thing."

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), October 29, 1998.

Excerpts from Senator Bennett at CSIS on Oct 6:

http://www.csis.org/html/y2k2g.html#ben

As I deal with the Y2K thing the old cliche about peeling an onion comes to mind, and the more I get closer to the core of this onion the more my eyes cloud up and the more difficulty I have trying to tell you exactly what's going to happen...

The biggest handicap anybody has in trying to come up with an answer to that question or any sub-part of it -- that is, is the power grid going to work, are we going to have telephone service, is the water system going to fail, etc., etc., go down the list -- is the lack of information.

And the one frustrating thing about the Committee that I chair is that as we probe in all of these areas -- and we've now held hearings virtually across the entire spectrum -- we still don't know. People lie to us. Or they refuse to talk to us.

The only people who will come forward and talk to us in a hearing setting are those who feel pretty good about where they are, and therefore you get a more rosy reaction to the testimony that comes from the hearings than you probably should get...

What do I see? I can't tell you, are we going to be all right? I haven't got any idea. I can make some guesses and they may be educated guesses, but until the whole system really goes through this there's no way really, to test it in advance. Everything is so interconnected...

It is all so inter-connected we're not going to know until we go through it whether it really will work or not.

I see major world problems. Even if this country and the United Kingdom and Australia and Singapore and Canada -- and those are the five countries that are rated as being the best -- with Japan and Saudi Arabia and Germany and France just slightly behind those five but coming along with some others -- the Netherlands. I can't remember all of those that I would place coming along behind the top five, but well on their way towards solution.

Assume that all of them work, you're still going to have countries -- and I say countries -- that will simply drop off the radar screen on January 1st, with enormous problems. Oh, you can say, they don't have a problem in South America because they're not very computerized anyway. Well, they have telephone systems, and what happens to the possibility of economic development in that country long-term if the telephone systems don't work?...

For example, my daughter who listens to me far more now than she did when she was a teenager, has decided that she's going to fill her garage with food on the assumption that there won't be any food on the shelves of the supermarket as a result of the year 2000.

And then she turns to me and says Dad, why don't you do that? I say well, you know, that really wouldn't send too good a signal if the Chairman of the Senate Committee was filling his garage with dried food.

If I have accurate information about whether food will be available on the grocery store shelves and the accurate information says no, it won't be, I really don't care whether I offend the CEO at Safeway by going out and buying food in advance. That amount of offense -- and you're talking about giving offense in a diplomatic situation -- is frankly far less serious than having people starve. --- These are just excerpts, but I don't think I've done any injustice to what the Senator said. However, I provided the URL for anyone to look for themselves. It's all public record.

I'll repeat what I said here last night (can't believe I'm back again), & what I said on our site: that CSIS Oct 6 conference is indispensable reading.

Drew Parkhill/CBN News

-- Drew Parkhill (y2k@cbn.org), October 29, 1998.

Thank-you, Mr. Parkhill! Until I see some documented evidence from Y2KNews, I will keep on believing Mr. Bennett hasn't changed his mind. Since his daughter is stocking up, I just can't help but wonder what they talk about in private?

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 29, 1998.

Have any of you ever considered that maybe Senator Bennett is right. I have never seen a group of more untrusting people. It's almost laughable how you people jump all over good news. It's going to be interesting to visit some of these Y2K websites in about 15 monts and see how they have dried up. I suppose though, you will find something else to nay say about.

-- Believer (OYe@littlefaith.com), October 30, 1998.

Well I'm certainly glad to hear that now Sen. Bennett is also part of the Grand Conspiracy to Keep All Valid Y2K Information Away from the Public. Now I don't have to worry about whom to believe; they're all liars. Splendid.

This dovetails right in with my belief that Mr. Rogers is really the mastermind of a child-kidnapping ring originated by Captain Kangaroo. Not to mention the alien plot to take over the earth, with Mork, Alf, and Dennis Rodman as the point men.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go realign the crop circles we mowed out in the field last night.

-- John Howard (Greenville, NC) (pcdir@prodigy.net), October 30, 1998.

The problem is simple. NOBODY KNOWS. This is an event with no precedent. None whatsoever. All we've got is a load of opinions, ranging from the totally clueless to the partially informed. (The picture is just too big for any one person or team to be fully infoermed).

From a politician's perspective: "suppose we DO panic the populace into getting the country onto some sort of Y2K-war-economy footing. If we're right, we're heroes. If we're wrong, and the nations competing with us continue on a business-as-normal approach, then we look like fools and are responsible for the biggest recession in living memory. We'll never work again.

"Now, if we DON'T panic them, and it's no worse than WWII was, we'll be OK. If it IS worse, then at least *we'll* be OK. Anyway, it's only a few cranks that think it could be that bad. Have you heard that Paul Milne chap?" ...

So, what do you expect them to do? It's not a conspiracy: just human nature. The same human nature that caused the problem in the first place.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), October 30, 1998.

As Mandy Rice-Davies (of the old Profumo scandal) said "well he would say that wouldn't he".

-- Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk), October 30, 1998.

Believer said, "Have any of you ever considered that maybe Senator Bennett is right" (BTW, you forgot your ?)

Which remarks? The ones that haven't been substantiated, or the ones that are in print for us to verify?

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 30, 1998.

Believer: I said it before and I'll say it again: If this web site every goes away because it's no longer needed, it will be a one VERY GOOD DAY. I hope for it. I pray for it. But hoping and praying won't put food on the table.

-- Arnie Rimmer (arnie_rimmer@usa.net), October 30, 1998.

Believer is a moron. All one has to do is read the facts and get out of denial. I wish these jerks would stay off this forum.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 30, 1998.

One of you said that Bennett and his ilk are thinking "If we warn and prepare people now, we will be heroes". Truth is, even if we do get through Year 2k thanks to Ed and his advice, five years from now we aren't going to be building a statue of him and chances are we will never even personally thank him. All this despite the fact that he has put his career on the line as well as endured endless slings and arrows. He won't get any thanks for being a stand-up guy, and neither will Bennett or anyone else. The difference is, Bennett realizes this. Have you ever seen the way they portray Ed Yardeni on TV? My god, with the lighting they use and the way his voice sounds, he looks like the anti-christ. It is very hard to be a stand up guy and they are cracking under the pressure, one by one.

-- Amy (leoneamy@aol.com), October 30, 1998.

Whoever posted this, "Believer is a moron. All one has to do is read the facts and get out of denial. I wish these jerks would stay off this forum.", thank-you, but I am quite capable of speaking for myself. I have posted on this forum for quite awhile, and I have never called anyone names. I am capable of expressing my opinions without resorting to name calling. Besides, now I am honored to be in the same camp as Uncle Deedah! He had someone posting in his name awhile back. I guess the poster thinks using our names makes the post more credible, huh, Uncle? Believer, I sure hope this wasn't you, just trying to get people to feel sorry for you. Whoever it was, get a backbone and post under your own name.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 30, 1998.

Did anybody get hold of Sen Bennet's office and ask what "his" version of events was/is/will be?

Or are we worrying about second-hand info from an unknown source?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 30, 1998.

full transcript can be found at http://www.sltrib.com/tribtalk/vote98/ This was a chat room discussion with sen bennet got the link yesterday from y2knews papa bear

-- papa bear (it.guy@usa.net), October 30, 1998.

All you have to do is go to the Year 2000 Information Center and read Press Clippings today. Lots of good news. Way to try and weasel out of that post Gayla.

-- Believer (OYe@littlefaith.com), October 30, 1998.

No way no how was that post a Gayla post. She dun gots bunch mo class dan dat.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), October 30, 1998.

Another quote from Sen. Bennett:

Youre...going to have countries--and I say countries--that will simply drop off the radar screen on January 1st, with enormous problems What are we going to do when the more compliant countries start getting reports of people starving, dying, water purification problems, lack of power, and so on, in countries all over the world?

Note that he says "going to", "will", and "when", as opposed to "might", "may", and "if".

Of course, he deflects panic by his assumption that it won't happen here. Why not?

-- Steve Hartsman (hartsman@ticon.net), October 30, 1998.

Thank-you, Uncle Deedah! :''-)

Thanks Papa Bear for the link. We're glad you contributed! (I saw your other thread.) I hope you will continue to post here. I read the transcript and you were absolutely correct. Maybe Senator Bennett has found some good news "behind the scenes." I hope so. It makes me feel a LITTLE better. It sure is different than what he said in the speech that was posted above by Drew Parkhill, though. I will continue to monitor what he says. Maybe he will elaborate further in the future. He sure seems worried about the other countries around the world, though. Since we import about 57% of our oil, I imagine we will definitely see some shortages there. Does anyone know how much of our coffee we import? (I better make another trip to Sam's) :-)

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 31, 1998.

And an equally important quote from

<< Yes, if we can get accurate data - that's what we are pushing for in my committee. Even if the news is bad, if people know it can be relied on, they can make intelligent contingency plans and avoid panic. It's when we are dealing with rumors alone that real panic sets in.>>

His comments were appropriate talking "in the blind" to voters "at this time" -- note he also wanted to refine his opinions in 6 months - and also reflect some of the "urgent concerns" apparent in quotes at the top of this thread. Go back and re-review a couple of them.

Neat cross-reference, thanks for sharing it.

BTW, the format and cross-talk are symptomatic of on-line events like this; my last QA class on ISO 9000 was Internet-provided (Southern Polytech here in Marietta offers its whole QA Masters Program over the net, but I've taken most of them in person) and the "on-line sessions are similar in nature.

Some cross-talk, questions answered out-of-sequence with later questions, and the moderator and guest having to respond seemingly "slowly" to past quesions due to typing/answering delays.

The Senator's overall concern were dominated by Y2K, as was the discussion.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 31, 1998.