Risks and probability of Y2K failuregreenspun.com : LUSENET : Millennium Salons : One Thread
Is there any study available that shows various risks associated with Y2K failure, especially with probability assessments ranging from almost impossible to happen to quite certain to happen.
-- Jean-Charles Dubois (email@example.com), October 22, 1998
Oddly (some would say insanely) enough there aren't a lot of studies around, but the testimony and report from the Gartner group will definitely give you something to think about. There are few studies (that I'm aware of, anyway), that address the probabilites in the broad terms your question poses, although the Gartner report takes pretty good whack at it.
Y2K Global Readiness & Risks to the Business Community - Gartner Group
Mitchell Barnes forwarded the following excerpt from this study:
"Even if we were to miraculously fix every one of these domestic issues and make certain all U.S. companies and government agencies will get themselves Year 2000 compliant before 2000, the absolute largest risk to the U.S. and to U.S. citizens is the impact from companies and governments outside the U.S. Far too many companies and governments critical to our continued strong economy, and providers of key resources, are more than 30 months behind private industry in the U.S. Since it takes an average of 30 months for a midsize company to achieve compliance of their most critical systems, many of these lagging foreign companies and governments will simply not have enough time to get their systems fixed before 2000. Failures will lead to a negative impact on our economy and availability of critical resources. We'll see significant impact from failures in these regions, including economic, sociopolitical, investment shifts, market changes, critical resources, national security, and defaults on federal loans. The only way now to combat this enormous issue, is for the U.S. Government to launch significant foreign contingency strategies in order to reduce or negate high risk dependencies on these industries and countries before we begin to feel these ill-effects. Since failures will increase in numbers throughout 1999, increase in volume throughout 2000, and continue at reduced levels throughout 2001, the time to act on this is now."
Another key study that was recently released was the NERC studyy of North American power companies, produced for the US Department of Energy. Rick Cowles, a highly respected y2k power industry expert, reviewed it. Well worth Reading
Rick Cowles assessment of the NERC report for the DOE - September, 1998
The General Accounting Office has produced a series of reports that are excellent. (You'll need Adobe Acrobat reader to be able to read or print them. If you don't have it, it's free. Just go to http:// www.adobe.com, look for the "Downloads" link, and "Acrobat.") While they mostly concern the year 2000 progress of various US government agencies, they reflect the broader situation.
Year 2000 Computing Crisis GAO Reports and other GAO Publications
Cory Hamasaki is a big system computer programmer working in Washington, D.C. He's been working on mainframe software for nearly 30 years, and has been concerned about the year 2000 problem since 1979. This summer he produced an estimate of problems that will begin to occur as systems roll into the new year and start doing "look backs" (just one aspect of the y2k problem). He calls it the "Jo Anne Effect," and he put those estimates in chart form that you can take a quick look at by clicking here. But when it comes to Cory and your question, the things you may want to read are his "Weather Reports." Like he says, "they're not for everyone" (he's got a pretty good sense of regular and gallows humor). And while they're not studies, they offer the insight and perspective of someone who knows big systems, and is working with the problem at a level few people are. To read his Weather Reports, go to his home page, and scroll down a little. You'll see the links.
Cory Hamasaki's home page
-- Bill (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 22, 1998.