My wife has two uncles who have retired from Norfolk Southern in the last few years. Both of them were visiting yesterday, so I thought I'd put the question to them:

If the computer is down, and the power is out, can switches be thrown manually?

The answer is, "Yes. Make sure the power is off, unlock the lever, and pull it. You have to pull it twice to get the switch to throw." Both of them agreed that it would work.

I learned a few more interesting tidbits about the current railroad system. I won't discuss them here, mainly because I'm not sure I got them right (rather than I can't talk about it).

The two of them were night & day with awareness. One has a son who works for NS & has to deal with Y2K issues; the other son does Y2K remediation for another company. The second uncle can't see how the computer could "think it's 1900; computers didn't exist in 1900."

So I'm not saying Y2K is suddenly No Big Deal. I expect railroads to have all sorts of trouble, but I expect absolutely essential shipments to get through... eventually.

-- Larry Kollar (lekollar@nyx.net), September 28, 1998

Answers

I'm glad to hear this...and my only question is:

Where will they get the human power to do the manual switching across the continental US? Oh, I guess one more question. Are any railroad companies putting into plan what is needed to have a manual switching operation in place in the event of massive and sustained power outtages?

Inquiring minds want to know, ya know.

Just me, the sheet-flapping Cassandra from S. California,

Donna Beyond 2000 Discussion Board

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), September 28, 1998.

Larry, Thanks for the encouraging words, they are consistent with what I have seen reported by railroad experts. Donna, the railroad companies are busily preparing for the big event and their preparations do include contingency plans. If you must insist on looking for the cloud in the silver lining with regard to transportation then your real concern should be with the 3000 plus trucking companies many of whom probably don't yet know the extent of their exposure.

-- Beauregard Didley (Bodid@usa.net), September 28, 1998.

Well, bodidily, I don't think Donna is looking for clouds in silver linings. She asked a very good question........who is going to throw all of these switches?

Your assurance that the railroads are busily working out contingency plans is heartwarming and gratifying. Can you tell us how many extra people Norfolk Southern will be hiring, and when they'll be trained and in place? What does NS expect to spend for this extra work force? What will be the impact on their bottom line? What will the manual operation of these switches do to the railroad's schedule? Have the railroads established priorites for those shipments that can be carried, or will these be established by the federal government after they take over the railroads? How many businesses that depend on delivery by railroad will go out of business because they were low on the priority list?

Larry's post verified what many have been thinking, that probably some manual workaround was available. At what cost?

Hey, Peter de Jager painted a picture weeks and weeks ago of men walking down the railroad track with lanterns in order to throw switches. Ludicrous picture, because businesses of all kinds have been 'downsizing' for years, replacing people with computers. Donna's questions was quite logical. Where do the businesses (in this case railroads) get the people to do all these manual operations that will be required. (Let's see now, we've been running nearly record level employment figures, so I guess we'll have to import railroad switch workers, eh? Or maybe we hire those people who've lost businesses because they weren't high enough up the priority list.) Great cause for joy, isn't it?

-- rocky knolls (rknolls@hotmail.com), September 28, 1998.

Thanks Larry. But, are you talking about throwing manual switches? I've read that many, if not most, manual switches are no longer operational. They were disgarded because of automation. Also, I read in one article that a switch yard in one state was operated a facility in another state. What happens if communication lines are down?

Also, what about if there is no power? If we aren't talking about manual switches then do those levers work by electronic control?

Can you find out details on this?

Your second uncle sounds like the majority of my fa

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), September 28, 1998.

More good news/bad news, as I see it the question of what to expect is still open to debate. For instance, it is my understanding that many of the big switching yards are gone, and the majority of the switching which turns cars into trains is now done by computer on sidings. Is this true? Can mere humans do the same complicated back and forth process with mental power alone?

BTW, Donna, next time you are flapping your sheet, do not stand in front of the sun! (he says while blushing, with averted eyes)

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), September 28, 1998.

Larry,

Let's see now - how many railroad switches are there in the U.S.? How many hours in the week - would they require 4 people per switch, each taking 42 hours a week, or could a single switchperson handle several if they were within a few hundred feet of each other? What about lunch hours and potty breaks? And what is the new communication method and system that enables the switcher to know precisely when to move the switch? Cell phones they don't currently own, or CB radios they don't currently own, or radios they don't currently own? And from what centrally located new manual switch coordination center do the hundreds of coordinators communicate to the thousands of switchers, based on what source of information? And how do the train cars get organized manually now that the switching yards have been turned into shopping malls and the switching engines melted down? When do they plan to test this contingency system? Have they ordered the red lanterns and the pencils yet? And the pencil sharpeners, the carbon paper, the special forms, the manual typewriters?

When railroads ran manually (or when any other organization operated under such practices), they had an enormously complicated human system that depended on a broad base of personal job expertise throughout their work force, plus a set of job skills that got jobs done quickly and safely, plus typically hundreds or thousands of special preprinted forms - not to mention the thousands of filing cabinets, plus the space to hold them. Those entire systems have been replaced, over extended time, with totally different systems, job knowledge and skills. The old knowledge and skills has evaporated. If any exists in a few older employees, it would take months or years to reorganize, staff and train to do it the former way, just as it took years to create the current system. I believe that it is fantasy to think that manual systems are a conceivable contingency plan.

I recall reading how the Union Pacific last year had the railcars passing back and forth day by day in front of the delivery points without anyone being able to figure out how to inform the engineer that it was time to stop and drop the car - and this was all caused by software problems from the merger, the closest thing to a dress rehearsal for Y2k that a railroad will see. My heart is not warmed by this possible solution.

Also, the comment about absolutely essential shipments getting through...eventually. First, who would decide what is essential, and what would be the source of the data for making such decisions? And how long would it take to get decisions made? And what are all the businesses going to do who thought the reason they ordered stuff was because it was essential to their business? What level of comparative productivity would you expect? 10%? 25%?

Gosh, I was reasonably optimistic before I started writing this response, but now I'm depressed. Seems like the lights and phones better keep working. <<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>..........

-- Dan Hunt (dhunt@hostscorp.com), September 28, 1998.

The railroad switching problem comes in two different types of problems: Junctions and passing sidings and freight classification yards. Junctions and passing sidings. True, most junction and siding switches are remote-controlled from a central dispatch center for each railroad. But it is possible for train crewmembers to get off and throw the switches with delays resulting. But trains will still be able to run. If traffic is reduced to only priority shipments, fuel, food, essential materials, then railroad service may hang on. Freight classification (destination sorting) yards. These exist in three catagories, small, medium and major. Major classification yards are the railroad versions of airline hubs. These are very automated and computer dependent. Good examples are Barstow CA, Colton CA, Roseville CA, North Platte NE, Waycross GA, Macon GA, and Chicago IL. Small and medium sized switching yards are not automated, they're manually operated using computer-generated switching lists (car UP12345 on track 5 for train NYLA3). If Y2K knocks out the line-up system, car assignments will become difficult for single carload shipments, but unit trains of grain and coal will be easy to put together and run. And when a unit train gets to a major yard it will work the same as now. Unit trains don't need to be sorted, they are simply handed off to a fresh crew who continues on towards the destination. Since Y2K critical materials like coal and grain already travel by unit train, there may be an easier time in keeping that service running. The single carload and non-critical multi-carload customers (perishables, UPS, auto manufacturers, postal 2nd & 3rd class mail, lumber and newsprint) are the ones who will feel an initial hit from any Y2K rail service rationing.

-- Vern Moore (vtmldm@epix.net), September 28, 1998.

For a description of railroads and how they used to operate before computers, and the government involvement in that operation read the Ayn Rand novel "Atlas Shrugged"....I don't believe at this stage of computerization, that it can be done manually - people are not trained, and would not be willing to stand in -30 deg cold, to manually shift a switch, which probably does not exist on some railroads.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), September 28, 1998.

I was travelling on I95 through Baltimore the other day when I noticed the road went by 3 or 4 very large switching yards (maybe 2000 acres). A couple thoughts on this subject. There is a lot of discussion on the mechanics of switching which is probably the lesser of two railroad problems. The first is - ONLY the computer system knows WHATS inside each and every car and WHERE it is supposed to go!!. Whats the point in switching if you don't know what goes where? And you won't know if the computers/comm links aren't up!! I suspect human powered switching is possible most of the time given the info from railroad people. Yes, you could probably still put a few trains together, but I doubt you could ship more than 10% of the current volume even under the most idealistic non-computer aided circumstances. (Now consider 10 below zero, post snowstorm in the Northeast and you are a railroad switcher "volunteer".)

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), September 28, 1998.

I guess a couple of clarifications are in order. First, these are computer-controlled switches I'm talking about. Apparantly, there's a lever (usually locked) that can be used to operate the switch if power goes out or the computer goes down. Second, when I said "essentials" I meant stuff like food & fuel. Yes, someone will have to make those decisions, and I'm glad it won't be me. Apparantly, NS is much less centralized than CSX, for example. (CSX is the railroad where everything is controlled from Jacksonville FL.) There was some talk about two people in one office where there used to be many more. As far as hiring & training extra people -- I figure railroads, like any individual or business -- will do what they must to survive. I doubt they'll make any profits in 2000, but at least they'll try to work things so they'll be around to try to make a profit in 2001.

-- Larry Kollar (lekollar@nyx.net), September 28, 1998.

If I remember correctly, even with the recent negotiations, each driving engine still has in the cockpit: 1 ea Engineer, Brakeman, and Fireman with additional personnel for the additional engines in a string (1 or 2, probably Firemen). There are your switching personnell, though the train length may have to be reduced to get them back into the engine after switching, or we will se cabooses coming back ( YAY!! HOORAH!! ) cr

-- Chuck a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 29, 1998.

Larry's right, but what a kiss of death......"absolutely essential shipments to get through.....eventually." Like the coal shipment that arrives at the power plant two weeks after it shut down for lack of fuel.

What scares me about this is the realization that this situation is one that will cry out for marshall law and/or the seizure of the railroads by the goverment. Why?

1. Who else will call themselves competent to make the decisions concerning what's "absolutely essential?" Replies above noted, "I'm glad I'm not making that decision." Only our government is inflated enough to step forward and say, "well, shucks, of course I'll do it for the little people."

2. If the railroads themselves make do such decisions they will subject themselves to lawsuits from shippers who have suddenly had their business thrown into bankruptcy because of lack of supplies.

3. There will be business bankruptcy, too. How many firms went out of business simply because of the FedEx strike?

Oh, yeah, but the unit trains will run, and the "absolutely essential shipments will get through....eventually," (under the control of FEMA).

Ah, man! What a terrible thought to start the day.

rocky

-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), September 29, 1998.

Considering what is at stake here, if indeed the switches CAN be operated manually, then there is hope, regardless of whether the Govt takes over the railroads. HOWEVER, as everyone has noted, you don't just throw a bunch of untrained people around with lanterns. You have to start planning NOW as to how this can be done, replete with testing, etc. Unfortunately, that will not happen, if nothing else because that might cause John Q. Public to worry that maybe there really IS a big Y2K problem.

-- Joe (shar@pei.com), September 29, 1998.

Why not ask CSX? Here is the URL for their Y2K info. page, admittedly not much but it does contain the e-mail address for asking them questions.

http://www.csx.com/cus/y2k.htm

-- Buddy Y. (buddy@bellatlantic.net), September 29, 1998.

Screw up the switching once on a high speed line = you have a wreck that will shut down the line for days/weeks.

Most are single track = loss of hundreds of trains = extra re-routing on other tracks to bypass.

It can be done, it can be visualized from the lawyer's office at CSX, but not in the "real" world of split second passes as a north-bound has to wait for the southbound to get by, then get back on the track. Or pull over, wait for the "faster" unit train to go through, then resume. Each operation of each switch requires time, and that small accumulation of time slows the net.

Good article about that in Smithsonian about the airlines scheduling delays around one line of thunderstorms in the Southeast.

Look it up in your library (I have no URL available), then think of the infrastructure required to pull off that coordination......

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 29, 1998.

BUT----- There IS a bright side to this!! Think about it! We're talking about going back to the 20's in train travel! this means that the trains will have to run ON TIME for heaven's sake!! Think about it!!! The return of the ol' Regulator Clock (it regulated trains (after stages of course) not people), the legendary Railroadman's Watch....etc.

-- Chuck a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 29, 1998.