In the infamous "Tom's Take", he metions a survivalist by the name of Paul Milne. Who is this guy, and where are his opinions posted?

-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), September 27, 1998

Answers

What's a survivalist? How quickly we use labels..........sigh. Anyone who takes Y2K seriously is a survivalist.

Paul Milne is a former commodities trader who saw the economic and political handwriting on the wall several years ago, moved to a rural area, and began preparing. Along came Y2K, which only reinforced Paul's opinion that things are going to get bad.

He frequents the comp.software.year-2000 newsgroup. His writing style is......abrasive??? He's willing to explain things once, but even those who most closely agree with him may be called "butthead" or "idot" (at the best).

If you want more, go lurk comp.software.year-2000. You'll either love him or hate him.

-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), September 27, 1998.

Anyone who gets up in the morning for work,eats,wears a seat belt, takes vitamins, gets regular physicals.... is a survivalist, no? It is so odd to me that when magazines,books,self-help groups, womens lib,etc, advocate CONTROL,CONTROL,CONTROL, that we who prepare for uncertain times are considered odd! You cant "control your own body", career, future if your not here for it. DUH. Until recent generations, EVERYONE stored food for the winter and had reliable drinking water.

-- madeline (runner@bcpl.net), September 27, 1998.

1000 pardons. I too, consider myself a survivalist. The lable was used to describe Mr. Milne in "Tom's Take". Thanks for the info on how to read more of his views. Let's not get too sensitive about descriptive adjectives.

-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), September 27, 1998.

Rocky, I tried the Milne limk and it didn't work! HELP!!!

-- hull stetson (stetson.hull@usa.net), September 27, 1998.

What is "Tom's Take"? :)

More importantly, what is a 'survivalist'?

-- Paul milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), September 28, 1998.

I found some of Milne's ascerbic conversations with other net butheads on a deja vu newsy thingo. It gave me the impression that america was full of arseholes and made me glad that i won't be there when tshtf. I'm happy i found this greenspun site which has renewed my previous good opinion of yanks. ! Milne is rather blunt and his namecalling doesn't help communicate his message,..but his message is basically correct. This will be a 10+ civilisation-quake, sad to say.

-- georgeherbertwalkerbush (satan@langley.com), September 28, 1998.

Personally, I doubt if Paul ever convinced anyone about Y2K. His style is to make bald assertions and then to be ab[ra,u]sive towards anyone who argues to the contrary. What he did accomplish was to turn comp.systems.year-2000 from a useful information exchange into a seething pool of name-calling and hatred, in which any useful information was lost in the noise (which is why I'm no longer following it or posting there).

It's interesting to contrast Gary North (much the same message but far more usefully presented). I don't buy the TEOTWAWKI scenario, but Gary's site is a good clearinghouse of information and its easy to ignore his spin and simply follow the links.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), September 28, 1998.

hull,

2 ways to find this. First is to call up comp.software.year- 2000,Expressour e-mail capability. On MS Outlook Express, which I use), this is easy: go to NETNEWS, click on tools, display "comp.software.year-2000," and subscribe. This provides you with the forum in threads.

DeJa News (www.dejanews.com) maintains a record of the forum. You have to register for it. If you use this you only get the messages in the order that they were received......threads are broken. Advantage: you can go to 'view thread' and then follow the thread until it turns ridiculous (which most do after a while).

-- rocky knolls (rknolls@hotmail.com), September 28, 1998.

My Grandma always said, "You can catch more flies with sugar than you can with vinegar."

-- John Howard (Greenville, NC) (pcdir@prodigy.net), September 28, 1998.

In answer to Nigel... He was always a whiny baby in CSY2K. Nothing to contribute, only whining because he does not like the logical conclusions. He NEVER refuted any evidence and only made rhetorical answers.

As far as the ad hominems are concerened, I will not be childish enough to say "Well I didn't start them". But I sure as hell finish 'em. The Pollyannas went on the attack calling those who prpeare "cowards" "Drop outs" and those who "run for the hills". All manner of other vile crap as well. If the Pollyannas want to complain that they have been outdone in what they initiated in their mischaracterizations, then too bad.

I call a spade a spade.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), September 28, 1998.

Paul Milne posts daily to the comp.software.year-2000 newsgroup. He takes articles related to the economy or Year 2k and provides his interpretation. Recent subjects include the problems in Russia and hedge funds. He gets impatient with stupid people (I can relate) and calls them names. I guess this hurts their feelings. He tends to shoot from the hip, not everyone is comfortable with that. He is the most interesting part of that newsgroup and has influenced my thinking re Year 2k. He hangs out with that Cory Hamaski guy (weather report).

-- Amy Leone (aleone@amp.com), September 29, 1998.

"Stupid is as stupid does." - from the movie Forrest Gump

I have yet to see a Paul Milne post that doesn't include an insult.

I'd like to ask him this: If you were in the same room speaking face-to-face with the person you're calling "butthead" would you still call him that? If so, let me know when it happens so I can watch you get your butt kicked.

-- Buddy Y. (buddy@bellatlantic.net), September 29, 1998.

Hi Paul,

Guess you answered my questions.

Please watch your language over here, my children and my chickens get upset....

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 29, 1998.

It has been my experience that the biggest blowhards turn out to be the biggest pu$$ies, when the chits are called in. It is the quiet ones who have real balls, and know they don't have to brag about it.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), September 29, 1998.

Yes, Paul calls a spade a spade. Problem is, he calls *everything* and *everybody* a spade. Loudly.

His request for evidence is a fraud. Anything you post that agrees with him is 'evidence' and proves he's right. Anything that disagrees (regardless of source) is proof you're an idiot. Invariably. He is a classic example of heads I win; tails you lose. Living proof that the quality of your logic is irrelevant when the processor is damaged.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), September 29, 1998.

It's sort of like the Y2K problem. A program can be 99 percent compliant, but it's that pesky unremediated 1 percent that causes the program to crash and crash utterly. Same with a person's thought processes. 99 percent of his brain may be right on the money, but there's that 1 percent that's completely f**ked and causes his conclusions to be utterly wrong...

-- butthead (butthead@butthead.butthead), September 29, 1998.

One of Pauls recent contentions is that banks expose themselves to too much risk by allowing 95% mortgages. He feels they should only loan 50%. Remember the savings and loan failures? What if he is right? What if the coming recession/depression makes it impossible to call in all those loans? He is ultra-conservative financially and makes a fascinating read. I don't engage in debate with him because I don't want my head bit off, but if you are interested in economics you might want to read him.

-- Amy Leone (aleone@amp.com), September 30, 1998.

In answer to Flint:

Flint is a dyed in the wool Pollyanna who lives in a populated area. He knows that those who do that have little chance of escaping unscathed. This angers him, that is, that anyone would point that out to him. Rather than face the facts, he lashes out. He has little choice but to do so. Otherwise he would have to face the logical conclusions. Since he will not or can not relocate, knowing the danger of not doing so, his only recourse is hostility towards the messenger.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), October 02, 1998.

I guess that answers my "Who is Paul Milne?" (Will this replace "Who is John Gault?" in Y2K?) As a mortgage broker, I agree with Paul, we arrange loans for people you and I wouldn't lend $10. to. Now we are doing 135's ( that's 135% of the "appraised" value), the equivilent to buying Microsoft at $100., borrowing $135. against it, in hopes that when you sell it's worth more than $135.(with no margin calls, because you have no equity) Try to get your brokerage house to do that deal. Yet the mortgage industry is processing 25,000 deals like this each week. Borrow at 6 and lend at 13, thats a 7 pt. spread on billions of dollars. No wonder Jim Palmer is smiling. Forget Y2K, the days of wine and roses are over, and the hangover will be like none before.

-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), October 02, 1998.

I don't mind butthead but when he calls you an "abject idiot", that really hurts.

Paul really hit an all time low when he resorted to posting Y2K 'hard' evidence from the Weekly World News tabloid.

Lately he has been seen on c.s.y-2k imitating Bill Clinton style legalese after predicting that the Dow would fall sharply last friday (it actually went up).

Personally, I believe in TEOMAWKI (M=Microsoft)

-- Reg Smith (TEOTWAWKI@dead.com), October 03, 1998.

Jesus, Bill, don't let Paul hear you say that. He only called me clueless when I asked why the government can't just print more money to cover failing banks. If you disagree with him, then you are a clueless butthead. Some people are clueless butthead pollyannas. But hey, that's just Paul.

-- Amy Leone (aleone@amp.com), October 03, 1998.

Paul Milne is a like an open sore oozing the most reprehensible, illogical, incredibly hateful, violent, vindicative spleen I've read on that newsgroup. I literally could not read his posts anymore because they nauseated me. He has a sick mind.

It is a real mystery to me and yet all too familiar to see how sick minds, people that use utterly degraded and demoralized language and insults to communicate, often win converts, mostly timid people who are thrilled in their narrow, small hearts by messages of apocalypse and hate.

He is really the ugliest and most mean-spirted voice on Y2K I have yet encountered, and I encourage you to avoid reading anything he has written, unless you really enjoy reading violent and vengeful rhetoric. (But to call his writing rhetoric flatters him unduly; it is just manure.) He is a prime living example of the decline of civility in this so-called culture.

If he has children, I feel deeply sorry for them.

-- Cary Oldsmith (lastchance@eskimo.com), October 04, 1998.

We've had enough open sores .... to last till the year 10000 crisis.

If it helps you vent your spleen, great. But have the courtesy to others who don't want to read it or print it, to type those kind of msg's with your fingers one line of key sideways.

It will serve the same purpose, and besides it will confuse the H**l of of the federal agents listening.

And those of us who can't spell won't notice the difference anyway.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 04, 1998.

In answer to Cary:

Now that you have finished venting your spleen, Do you think that you might answer the issues raised in the ng? No, I don't think you will. It is always easier to talk 'about' the messenger than to address the issues. It is the way that you hide from conclusions that you do not like. Now, was that so terible, Cary? Of course not. But, you go right ahead and continue to ignore the issues because you do not like the unhappy conclusions.

It is so much easier to attack the messenger that to support your oppositon viewpoint with FACTS.

-- Paul Muilne (fedinfo@halifax.com), October 04, 1998.

In answer to Reg:

Reg said:

"Lately he has been seen on c.s.y-2k imitating Bill Clinton style legalese after predicting that the Dow would fall sharply last friday (it actually went up). "

Now Reg can characterize my remarks anyway theat he likes. And YOU can choose to believe him. But I suggeast that you ask Reg to post here EXACTLY whatI wrote. You will find that I said nothing of the sort.

Ask Reg to post my remarks and you will see for your self that Reg has lied. It is that simple. He lied.

Before listening to how Reg mischaracterizes my remarks and believing him , I suggest that you read them first hand and decide for yourself.

C'mon Reg, re-post my remarks here and PROVE that I said it would fall sharply on "Friday" itself.

Then we can let the readers here judge for themselves just who the liar is. My comments were brief, you can post them in their entirety.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), October 04, 1998.

Subject: Bye-Bye DOW Author:fedinfo Email: fedinfo@halifax.com Date: 1998/09/25 Forums: comp.software.year-2000

It's 9:18, do you know where your DOW is? Not open yet of course, but in a few minutes.....

It's a funny thing. One never knows where it will be on a given day,necessarily...but I have more than a sneaking suspicion that I want to watch it on this 'Friday.

-- Paul Milne "The road to TEOTWAWKI is paved with good expectations"

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Notice the subject title is BYE-BYE DOW. Its pretty obvious what he is implying in his message text too. Now what do you suppose he could have meant by BYE-BYE DOW? The Dow was expected to open down sharply that morning and in fact did so but rebounded later in the day.

But Paul Milne claims he is innocent of making any prediction. I say he is guilty of using the same silly legal bullshit tactics as Clinton tried to use to weasel his way out of his predicament.

-- Reg Smith (panic@righttime.com), October 06, 1998.

Reg and Paul: take your personal vendetta to csy2k where it belongs.

Reg, you're the one who brought it here. Please clean it up. We don't need it, and we don't want it.

DeAlton

-- DeAlton Lewis (delewis@inetone.net), October 06, 1998.

See my limericks.

-- Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk), October 07, 1998.

Anyone can get a good indication of how the Dow will open by checking the early futures numbers. Where the market goes from there is anyones guess. We all make mistakes, even Milne.

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), October 07, 1998.