I've noticed that you mainly talk about the Millenium Bug, yet if you only factor in that, then you are seriously underestimating this.

Consider that there are many other things that might occur: 1.Some fanatic sect (e.g. Heavens Gate) might see the millenium as the Armaggedon, and act accordingly. This might include severely increased terrorist attacks, mass suicide, and mass panic.

2.Enemies of the United States, and other countries for that matter, might see the weakened state of the county as a prime opportunity for military action. I am pointing at countries like Iran, Iraq, and even some south-east Asian and South American countries.

3.On a similar incident, computer problems might cause an increased number of international "incidents", like friendly-fire deaths.

4.Right wing extremists might also see the weakened state of the U.S. as a prime time for a "change of government".

If you have any other possibilities I have not considered, tell me. I know this sounds very pessemistic, but the more you think about all the very real possibilities, it becomes more likely. Until you factor in EVERYTHING that might happen, you wont have a total Y2K scenario.

Consider this. Even if the Millenium Bug never existed, even if computers were fine, the year 2000 will still a very rough year for all of us. Hope for the best, prepare for the WORST.

-- Jose Segura (josesegura@hotmail.com), September 20, 1998

Answers

Oh, I would also like to add that I think Ed Yourdon should make his book public domain if he really wants to alert everyone about Y2K. Just my opinion. Ed Yourdon is my hero.

-- Jose Segura (josesegura@hotmail.com), September 20, 1998.

We are not a socialist country yet, Jose! Although some will argue we are, we still allow people to make money from their efforts. Ed has provided this great banner free website, and you want him to give away his book? If you can't pop for a $20 book, get in line at the local library. If Clinton could only charge for his new 4 hour video, he would gross more than "Titanic".

-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), September 20, 1998.

One aspect i have been worried about, Will hackers and virus creators use the 01/01/2000 date as a trigger for problems -- i expect that if we do get things going the various virus will kick in !!

-- ebs in NM. (ebsebs@flash.net), September 20, 1998.

There are legitimate concerns that unscrupulous (or illegal) overseas programmers doing Y2K remediation for US compnies have slipped in traps or "back door" access points that will allow future economic eavesdropping or interferences.

No actual cases have been publicizied. Supposedly, military level interferences (deliberate viruses or softwarew faults) have not occurred either as the military systems are re-programmed.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 20, 1998.

With these type of questions my mind runs to books like Toffler's Third Wave or The Fourth Turning, Systems Theory, and my pround belief that our world giving birth to something new. What we are seeing with Y2K and other potential system-topplers seems like the contractions,...the labor pains, if you will.

Anyone interested in discussing what we are midwifing might enjoy visiting our relatively new discussion board at the following hyperlink:

Beyond 2000 Discussion Board

The posters there are striving to go beyond bunker mindset to envision what we can create that is truly new and better. They are also watching and listening.

If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got. So if you want change, do anything else!

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), September 20, 1998.

The New York Times Magazine had a chilling article this past summer about a "superbug", a virus that, so far, no antibiotic can kill. Some feel that it is just a matter of time before it becomes epidemic.

-- Sara Nealy (keithn@ptd.net), September 20, 1998.

What I'm saying about the public domain is that there are bigger problems that worrying about whether or not Ed makes a buck on his book. If i wrote a book like that, and I was really sincere, then I would not make it for profit, but to alarm the public about what was going on.

-- Jose Segura (josesegura@hotmail.com), September 20, 1998.

Jose:

For profit = Publishing contract. What publisher would want to print and distribute a book for free. At this point, there would undoubtedly be legal problems for Ed if he decided to give away the book. What happens to the publisher's investment? That investment is what got the book where it is today.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 20, 1998.

Pardon me, should have said:

...legal problems for Ed and Jennifer if they decided to give away the book.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 20, 1998.

Jose: We don't need a Y2K bug as a stepping stone to plan ahead for the disasters you mentioned. I believe we are a weakened, demoralized, and vulnerable nation. Anything could happen at this point to bring our country into complete choas. All one can do is have a plan of action for any disaster. There are some that you will make it through if you have food, water and shelter. Then there may be some disasters where no matter how much food and water you have stored, you are going to die regardless. And for those of you who are thinking about heading for the hills, try a backpacking trip for 2 weeks in the most desolate wilderness you can find. You will have a different perspective on what it takes to survive in the wilderness.

-- Bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 20, 1998.

oi! stop crapping on about book contracts. This is a crucial topic, thanks Jose. When TSHTF various drastically bad repercussions may follow...some are so bad that they would make all preparation futile! I'm still getting prepared though. So what MIGHT happen....? Here are some wild guesses from a talented guesser....

If many countries "defence" systems are to be rendered fubar by technological, logistic, command and control, finance and personnel failures, then there may be the temptation amongst the generals to utilize their forces while they still have one. "Use it or lose it," as they say. This would be especially probable in flashpoint countries, eg India vs Pakistan (why can't they stick to cricket?) Nth.Korea vs Sth.Korea, China v Taiwan, Afghanistan v Iran, Israel v greater Arabdom, "African country x" vs " A. C. y", Yugoslavia a vs b, ... Germany v France??!etc you get the drift. (this is a really damn depressing thing to write about) On the other hand the unfeasibility of waging an extended military campaign while hampered by enormous y2k disruptions might dissuade them from picking any fights. It's a difficult one to guess at. The "logic" in favour of pre-emptive strikes at one's enemies/neighbours is really quite strong, at least according to the (frankly, satanic) mindset of the megadeath services bureaus. This is the worst thing that could hapen...War. I hate to bring it up, but it looms as a serious possibility, somewhere. Maybe it won't effect you and me. Amerika would, in normal circumstances, join in on at least half of the scenarios listed above, but under y2k conditions maybe not. As well as this pre-emptive issue, the aftermath of y2k looks more capable of starting wars here and there. Hopefully not, but mightn't a medium-to-worst case scenario re. infrastructure paralysis, economic collapse and political turmoil be sufficient to inspire large-scale predatory sacking-and-pillaging type incursions into neighbouring countries, all done in the name of national security of the glorious fatherland? Again, WCS, but not unrealistic given what we know about the glitch and its ramifications.

Then, besides the question of "traditional" warfare, there is terrorism.. perhaps of more immediate interest to you americans. Now, despite what ABCNNBCBS might say, the u.s. government has done a lot of evil things to the rest of the world over the last 50 years, and they've earned themselves a lot of very enthusiastic enemies. This is most unfortunate for the citizens of usa who contributed nothing more than ignorance and apathy to such crimes. Now I certainly DO NOT agree with what terrorists do, but I can at least understand where they are coming from. I also do not see them as the wild eyed raving loon-balls that tv/establishment portrays them to be, I credit them with some amount of intelligence, however morally depraved their militarism might be. Consequently, I can imagine/foresee terrorists capitalising on y2kaos, with "well" placed/timed assualts greatly magnifying the results obtainable from their limited resources. Hopefully nothing of this kind will transpire. The y2k situation will be drastic enough without cruel-hearted villains trying to make it much worse. But if there was ever a time for them to do it.... Nukes are for sale on the blackmarket, and presumeably are being bought. Biological warfare is cheap and easy. Y2kaos plus revenge seeking plus millenium madness plus religious fervour might be enough to override to titch of humanity which has miraculously kept down weapon-of-mass-destruction utilisation so far. Sorry if such thoughts upset people or are seen as counterproductive to our survivalist mindset, but we should follow evidence and analysis wherever they lead. Maybe we have 15 months to live, not 15 months to repair or prepare. ! A pretty big maybe, no doubt. I'm personally not worried about such drastic scenarios, I just can't yet think of reason why I shouldn't be worried. Dont Worry. Be Happy. dooo do do do do do do do do doodo do etc

-- notforthispost,Idon'tthinkso! (sauron@mordor.com), September 20, 1998.

Sorry, but a free market economy (including book contracts) is our way of life. At least for US AMERICANS. There's nothing wrong with making a buck on a book.

As for the possibility of war or terrorism, this shouldn't be overlooked. Especially terrorism. However, this probably isn't the best time to plan a terrorist attack against the USA since American intelligence is on alert for Y2K related activity. Anyone planning outright war would probably be advised to think very carefully. Few countries would have the military resources to match even 10 percent of the US capability. There are also America's allies to be considered. The odds of making a miscalculation in this situation seem very great.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 20, 1998.

Of course we COULD talk about the things that "man" has no control over... like meteor showers and solar flares that are "due" late 1999/early 2000...

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), September 20, 1998.

In my "never to be humble opinion (NTBHO)", it is more than just the good old US of A that is teetering on the brink of systemic ca-chunk. We are all priviledged to be witnessing and participating in a massive change in the macroeco-bio-socio system,...a guaranteed event, according to systems dynamics and systems theory.

If you read history and trends books,...the real ones with valid research, the coming and present changes are as obvious as the big ships were to the wise shamen when Magellen anchored in the bay at Tierra del Fuego. Only the people locked into their perspective of canoe culture could not see the ships...the shaman said, "as preposterous as this sounds...these visitors came in BIG ships...they are right there...LOOK!" It is taking some time for so-called civilized humans to see the changes that are here and still coming...just as it took the Fuegans some time to see the ships anchored in front of their eyes....nevertheless the changes are here,...the ships were there.

As my baby sister likes to say: Grab a helmet, Honey, and strap in!

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), September 20, 1998.

In order of impact, I'm guessing it's 1, 4, 3, 2. Or maybe not. The terrorists & extremists could easily feed off each other, working independently but each making the other's goal easier to reach.

I put #2 (military action) at the bottom. I expect lots of brush-fire conflicts, but other countries are going to have at least as many problems as the US, if not worse. We might be invaded by illegal immigrants, if our country manages to limp along & theirs do not.

-- Larry Kollar (lekollar@nyx.net), September 22, 1998.

The Old Farmers Almanac has an interesting article which ties into the increased solar activity and the upper atmospheric winds and the combination which makes quasi-bienniel oscillation (something like an airborne el nino). Last huge one was 1899 and the article says another big one likely 1999. Temperatures fell then to -8F in Ft.Worth, ice floes on Miss. River at New Orleans, -1F in Mobile AL, and in one day Wash DC got 20 inches snow. This "rctic Breakout" makes the cold temps move south and the northern areas are much warmer. As I live in Canada, bring on this type of weather and it will seem like Florida.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), September 22, 1998.

I focus on the Y2K issue because it is absolutely solid, not wishy-washy. The technology has a "built-in" flaw, and this flaw will cause a complete change to our civilization within a very measurable period of time. This cannot, at this late date, be corrected, mush less lessened. This obviously can provide the foundation for a lot of wishy-washy What-If type scenarios, but Y2K, by itself, is rock solid, complete with an absolutely immovable fixed deadline. The only "slack" left is what you as an individual choose to do for you and yours.

-- Joe (shar@pei.com), September 22, 1998.

Robert: You said: "There are legitimate concerns that unscrupulous (or illegal) overseas programmers doing Y2K remediation for US compnies have slipped in traps or "back door" access points that will allow future economic eavesdropping or interferences. No actual cases have been publicizied."

Actually, they have. A New York Times article about computer security -- March 2 by Peter Lewis -- noted several cases where y2k remediation projects that had been sent to Russia and India came back with illicit back doors added to allow unauthorized snooping. I haven't seen Word One about that topic since, although I posted queries to several forums asking for info.

-- J.D. Clark (yankeejdc@aol.com), September 22, 1998.

You americans can be so insular at times, it drives me crazy! If wars break out in other parts of the world then this is a bbaadd thing, that is perhaps worth giving some thought. As for usa being immune or safe due to its 10x-bigger-than-everyone-else-armed-forces ....well, China has the infowarfare capacity to stop your electricity, (If the bug don't do it) the russians probably have suitcase nukes on site in dc, ny, la, allah knows how many terrorist cells your land is host to, and oh, by the way, there is such a thing as the russian nuclear sub fleet off of your coasts in all directions. I mention these things not to be the doomsayers' doomsayer, but because they're supposedly there to prevent threats to someone-or-other's NATIONAL SECURITY. Y2K is clearly a threat to each nations national security, (hence much of the happy-face flak, perhaps). The generals and the commanders are stuck with the fact that they cannot force the computers to be y2k-compliant by threatening them with their oh so deadly force. In the face of this problem, they are impotent. Has anyone run a rand-corp style game theory analysis on mutually assured destruction and y2k? I doubt the computing power exists. Grave times, as Mr Cohen described them, ...lets hope his words aren't too apt. This atheist is praying like crazy. (All worst case scenarios to be taken with a grain a salt, remember to smile)

-- barry Macguire (sauron@mordor.com), September 23, 1998.

Barry, I think the US is protected more by two oceans than by any military (which could well be crippled come 2000). From what I've been hearing lately (from garynorth.com & other places), China is going to be in rough shape too.

Paralysis means nothing moves. If the world's military forces are paralyzed, how are they going to fight?

The suitcase nukes are a good point, though. Assuming the electronic guts are themselves Y2K-compliant.

-- Larry Kollar (lekollar@nyx.net), September 23, 1998.

Gee barry, thanks for not being a doomsayer! I know what you mean about those Russian subs - they're just waiting for Y2K to bring the U.S. to it's knees so they can neutron bomb us and take all our greenbacks. (Not to mention the retired Beanie-Babies) Thanks for all the really positive feedback! BTW - if Americans (capital "A") being insular drives you crazy, consider me the "INSULAREST".

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 23, 1998.

Jose...I'd really watch out for those Right Wing extremists if I were you. Look what they did to Bill Clinton. They arranged to have Bill do some naughty stuff with Monica and now he's in trouble. You just can't trust those Republicans.

-- hull stetson (stetson.hull@usa.net), September 23, 1998.

Mike

Exellent point, remember folks, always wrap your Beanies in Mylar before burying them.

I've seen goofballs buy them for HUNDREDS of dollars. Holy Cow, do you need a slap upside the head, lady? Whats the dealio? That is one hell of an expensive way to buy beans.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), September 23, 1998.

I also figure that there might be an increased AIDS epidemic after Y2k. People will figure, "Hey, to hell with this, if the worlds gonna end, I might as well get laid for the last time," and AIDS sufferers might think the same thing. Also, I don't testing for STDs will be on the top of the list for post-Y2K.

-- Jose Segura (josesegura@hotmail.com), September 23, 1998.