Recently I have found myself talking to quite a few urban friends about the possibility of relocating before the millennium roll-over. These are the responses Ive seen and some of my thinking I have done in light of these.

In regards to bugging-out...

1) It looks bad enough now...we are bugging out and are working on our retreat NOW. 2) We will sell our property, get totally liquid so that should the situation look very serious we can bug out in any time in '99 or '00 and will loose nothing. 3) If it starts to get really bad and dangerous, we will bug out and leave all our worldly possessions behind, hoping the crisis will be short and our possessions will be safe while we are gone. 4) We will ride this out as long as we can, and should we have to, we will count our possessions as lost and bug out to avoid the prospect of civil unrest, starvation, becoming a martial law hostage, or a refugee. 5) We will run for our lives, with only the clothes on our backs, out the backdoor, when there is a real and immediate threat to our lives on our front doorstep.

And the worst

6) I guess well just die.

Each of these have commitments and timetables and signs to look for. Any of these are rational responses given the information we posses now. The danger level goes up with each level while the probability of successful bug-out goes down with each level. "Faith" (human faith) and intuition (it feels like what we should do) is a big factor in the lower numbers, sight (I'll believe it when I see it) is more important as you get close to five. The room for error is cut substantially as you approach five, and your plans must have multiple redundancy. The embarrassment factor is high in 1 or 2 should it all turn out to be nothing. Who cares about embarrassment in 4 and 5, its life or death. I wish I didnt know anyone who fits 6, but I do.

Maybe this will help organize your thinking when talking to family and friends about relocating, and help you explain the risks that are involved with every decision they make.

I have talk to people in every category. Am I missing some?

-- Timothy Rebman (trebman@megavision.com), September 13, 1998

Answers

A related thought on talking to friends. Just how dear are they to you? Worth a hundred bucks of your money to see them survive? I had a friend who wouldn't listen until I showed up at his door with 100 pounds of rice and 100 pounds of beans. When he realized I would put my money where my mouth is, HE was embarassed enough to start taking y2k seriously. (now, if I can only get my money back from him....)

Lon Frank

-- Lon Frank (postit@here.com), September 13, 1998.

Maybe its just where I live (affluent suburb of Philadelphia) but most people simply shrug and say they don't believe it will be serious. As for thoughts on bugging out, I would suggest multiple options. 1.)Prepare the home you are in now if it is reasonably safe (a totally subjective thing). However, a center city apt feels like suicide to me.

2.) Prepare a couple alternate sites. Perhaps a country house owned by a relative. Share costs with relatives if possible. Keep it simple- water AND water purification, food, weapons,clothing, basic first aid, money, simple tools and seeds for planting. As an aside, I have been very happy with The Sportsmans Guide catalog as a source for boots and clothing. They also sell a portable wood stove!! My suggestion for weapons are (in this order of acquisition: Ruger 10/22 carbine, Mossberg 500 12g shotgun and Hi Point 9mm pistol. If you don't know how to use a weapon, look up you local NRA chapter and take their classes.

-- R.D. Herring (drherr@erols.com), September 13, 1998.

RD, Ref your # 2: CLASSES BEFORE ACQUISITION!!!!!! and no my caps button doesn't stick!

I have sen too many of the results of the other order!!

-- Chuck a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 17, 1998.

Some of you have e-mailed me about my new Y2k site. Yes, it is finally my comprehensive shopping list is finally up! There are still a few more pages of Level 2 & 3 shopping list that will be added in a day or two. We are getting an average of 200 visitors a day. For those who have visited, we are almost a one site see all. We covers alternative medicine, vital & little-known Washington news, investment & market forecasts. Updated daily & still under construction. I try to do as much as possible, working in between my Y2K seminars, etc. Here's the address. http://www.geocities.com/hotsprings/villa/3388

-- Raymond Kwong (rayk19@juno.com), September 17, 1998.